NYT: Narrow Bilbray Victory by G.O.P. Signals Fall Problems

[DeepModem Mom]

Narrow Victory by G.O.P. Signals Fall Problems
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: June 8, 2006

SAN DIEGO, June 7 — The victory that Republicans squeezed out in a high-profile race to fill a Congressional vacancy here eased party anxieties Wednesday but signaled future difficulties as they confront tougher Democratic challenges in increasingly contested districts this fall....

***

Mr. Bilbray's failure to break 50 percent was striking. The Republican Party had poured workers and millions of dollars into avoiding defeat in a district where Republicans have a sizable registration advantage and where President Bush won by 10 percentage points in 2004. The previous holder of the seat, Randy Cunningham, who resigned after pleading guilty in a corruption scandal, defeated Ms. Busby in 2004 by 58 percent to 36 percent....

***

The Republican Party backed Mr. Bilbray not just with money for advertising but also with automated phone calls from President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Laura Bush and the highly sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation that has helped Republicans in the last two national elections. Analysts said Mr. Bilbray was also helped by a tough anti-immigrant message that resonated here on the Mexican border....Yet the Republican victory also highlighted divisions within the party. In making immigration the central issue of the campaign, Mr. Bilbray publicly broke with Mr. Bush, who supports legislation that would allow some illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship. Mr. Bilbray, a former representative in another San Diego district, said in an interview that his campaign took off once he began attacking Mr. Bush and Senate Republicans for immigration legislation....

***

Yet the result in the California race underscored a persistent concern among Democrats that their hopes of winning control of the House could be thwarted by Republican institutional advantages.

Republicans demonstrated yet again their ability to raise more money than Democrats and to deploy the get-out-the-vote and absentee-vote operation developed by the Republican National Committee....Republicans had 160 people in this district helping to get out the vote (making 164,000 phone calls)....Democrats said the Democratic National Committee had no similar effort on the ground here....

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/08/washington/08elect.html?hp&ex=1149739200&en=6114a20258d72f36&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[Rose Siding]

1. Kind of surprising from AdNags

Maybe he's just being smugly magnanamous, but that's a pretty fair assessment.

[jaysunb]

8. " Smug " for sure....

Look at this little "seemingly" throw away line:
Democrats said the Democratic National Committee had no similar effort on the ground here

So which Democrats were these ??

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. Just now getting the picture.

[wisteria]

3. I would like to know why there wasn't any DNC ground people.

Isn't that what Dean is suppose to be doing? I make monthly donations to the DNC just for this purpose. You mean to tell me we had no one to utilize for this important effort?
Whose fault is this the DLC because they didn't think ground people were necessary or was it the DNC because ????

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. the GOTV effort was historic

I live in the district next door... I plan to donate more money to busby

That said, the apathy was and remains at historic levels

[fooj]

7. A woman on KO's said that there were about 300+ volunteers for Busby

I don't think the effort was initiated by the DNC...

[MaineDem]

14. How do you know they didn't help? n/t

[rodeodance]

4. the talking point is to oppose Bush immigration plan. that is how

Bilbray won--he said. It was the major talking point on all the talk shows tonight

[cagoldensun5050]

6. I am not so optimistic...

...Especially as Democrats are being portrayed as embracing amnesty for illegal immigrants similar to McCain-Kennedy and Bush's platform. I agree that Repugs were idiots in overblowing Busby's slip-up, but they will stoop as low as they can, as long as their guys win.

And yes, Bilbray received less than 50% this go-around, but the 4-5% that went Libertarian/Independent were most likely conservatives that were unimpressed by Bilbray's moderate stances. I don't know if a similar scenario will play out in November, especially since Bilbray now has the incumbency. If Busby could not win an open seat in which the previous incumbent was jailed for bribery and corruption, then beating an incumbent seems next to impossible.

I'm not saying that this spells doom for us, but we really need to get our crap together if we want to win in November.

[DeepModem Mom]

10. Thanks for your post, cagoldensun5050 -- and welcome to DU!

[PsycheCC]

15. I agree. We do need to address how he used immigration and what

that means to our hopes this fall. Bilbray and others have said that he turned this around when he started talking about opposing the Bush/Senate approach to immigration. MANY DEMOCRATS wants the borders closed and employers of illegals fined because they are suffering from depressed wages caused by the demand for cheap labor. If Democratic politicians fail to heed the will of their constituents, I fear we will lose seats in this election, just as Busby lost votes when she was credited with saying one needed "papers" to work for her campaign.

[newyawker99]

16. Hi cagoldensun5050!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[BeFree]

9. Diebold

Since the votes were counted on Diebold machines, no one should have an ounce of faith in the reported outcome.

The machines can be programmmed to cough up any result desired. They can be programed to take a total of 100 votes and break it down into 40 for this one and 60 for the other. And who would know?

No one can go back and see the votes cast, all traces are gone. We can never tell who actually won, or who lost. The results can only be taken on faith.

Who has any faith in the republicans not lying or cheating?

In fact, seeing how the pukes poured so much resource into this race is a form of evidence that they knew they had lost it fairly, so, since they had to steal it, they poured all that into the race to fool everyone into thinking that's why it turned out like it did.

Well, not much we can do about it now, but the next time we can make any theft harder by making them record, on paper, each vote cast.

[Redneck Socialist]

11. Well this is the first bit from the MSM that wasn't orgasming over...

the "great" repuke victory.

Every bit of news I caught on Busby's near win was extolling what a great victory this was for the pukes.

:wtf:

A no name neophyte Dem narrowly loses to a puke that out-spent her by some fourmillion dollars, said puke can't even break 50% of the vote in a heavily puke district, and it's a "great" victory for 'publican's?

Most of the MSM was in full blown whore mode this AM about this race.

[cagoldensun5050]

12. Keep in mind...

Most of the King/Griffith votes would probably have gone to Bilbray and it would be just like the Bush 55/45 in 2004.

[HawkerHurricane]

13. Results were predictable...

1. The original election voting had Busby at 45%, with 4-5 Republicans splitting 55%. Busby had a good 15% points on any single Republican, but she didn't break 50%, so they have to have a run off.
2. So, the run off election occurs, and Busby gets the same 45%, and Bilbray takes the 50%.

This is the same thing that happened with the San Diego mayor's race: Two republicans split 55% of the vote, Donna Frye got 45%, forcing a run off. Donna Frye got the same 45%, and the remaining Republican got 55% for the win.

Now, I'm not complaining overmuch. It was a impressive showing, and if BushCo keeps screwing up (they're going to do that) without something to shore up thier base (Terra! Nine Eleven! Gays getting married! Invade Iran! Did I mention Terra!) then the November election is going to go to Busby.
Why do I think so?
More Voters in regular elections vice primaries.
More people getting pissed off.