I reject the premise that Lieberman can win as in Independent

[rucky]

Common sense says he will be a spoiler. The GOP will vote for their candidate, and the people who voted for Lieberman last time will split between him and Lamont. Result: The Republican wins.

I know there's some polling out there that suggest Liebman will win, but it's so incredible counterintuitive, I have to question where those numbers are coming from.

Does anybody know?

also, does anybody know what margin he won by last election? and how much of those votes were from Republicans?

[jobycom]

1. I reject the premise that anyone could possibly drink coffee

Cause it tastes really nasty to me.

[elehhhhna]

2. Dieold says "Good luck with that".

[vssmith]

3. If he can't win the primary I doubt he can win the election

He is using this as a threat against the Dems. He is saying nominate me or I will spoil your election. The only thing that is truly spoiled is him. He has the "I'll take my bat and go home" mentality like a spoiled child!!

[saltpoint]

4. I'm with vssmith on this race in CT. If Lieberman wins the primary

he wins as a Democrat (" ") in the general.

If Lamont wins the primary and Lieberman runs, the race is between those two. Schlesinger is now polling behind Pol Pot. I'm not seeing a certified Republican elected in Connecticut this year.

If Lamont wins the primary by a convincing margin, the impetus to support him as a Democrat and as a rising star will be siginificant, and I'd call him to win the general handily, especially over Schlesinger.

[calico1]

5. The Lieberman supporters are just taking it

for granted that if he bolts the party he will still win by a wide margin because of all those Republicans and Independents that love him. (though I personally don't know any Republican here who has ever voted for him). What they don't seem to realize is that should Ned Lamont win, the Democratic machine will be behind him, not Lieberman. That changes the scenario quite a bit. This is why he was practically crying on Imus yesterday, begging voters to register. Because he knows he is screwed if he loses the nomination in terms of the national party backing. No Democratic politician in their right mind is going to campaign for Lieberman if Lamont wins the nomination. So what Lieberman would be left with is being a spoiler.

[bornskeptic]

6. A couple of polls

Rasmussen has
Joseph Lieberman (I) 44%
Ned Lamont (D) 29%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 15%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/connecticutsenate06162006.htm


Quinnipiac has
Lamont 13%
Schlesinger 10%
Lieberman 56%
(Question 20)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11385.xml?ReleaseID=909

[RDANGELO]

7. Lamont should win.

If the great majority of voters in Ct. think that Iraq war was a mistake, then Lamont should win with the Republican and Joe splitting the pro war vote. If lieberman wins, it would be because voters feel sorry for him, or they just like him, keeping him around like an old dog. Thats why I think Ned's latest ad "Messy desk" was a good idea. He needs to get people to know and like him.