Bush administration’s talk of preventing spread WMD is just that — talk

[dajoki]

Posted to the web on: 11 October 2006
Blowing a hole in Bush doctrine
Gideon Rachman - Financial Times
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A287168


PRESIDENT George Bush declared: “The US will not allow the world’s most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world’s most dangerous weapons.” That ringing proclamation lies at the heart of the “Bush doctrine”, which took the US to war in Iraq. It was made in the president’s 2002 state of the union address — the same speech in which he introduced the world to an “axis of evil” of three countries: Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Almost five years on and the North Koreans’ apparently successful test of a nuclear weapon has delivered what may be a final blow to the Bush doctrine. In the name of preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, the US invaded Iraq — only to discover that it had no such weapons.

But North Korea has successfully tested a nuclear weapon, in spite of the Bush doctrine. The third member of the “axis of evil”, Iran, is pressing ahead with its own nuclear programme — and seems likely to be greatly heartened by the North Korean success.

In spite of the US’s declarations that it will not tolerate North Korea’s nuclear programme, there seems little that the Bush administration can do in the short term. Tougher sanctions will be tried. It is difficult to persuade members of the nuclear weapons club to give up their nukes. Although the Bush administration will have to think about its military options, it seems highly unlikely that the Americans will launch military strikes, such as the bombing raids on North Korean missile-launch sites that some former Pentagon officials have suggested.

America needs its key allies in the region in this situation — and South Korea and Japan are likely to be deeply resistant to military action. More pragmatically, the Americans know that the limitations of North Korean missile technology mean that they are far less vulnerable to Kim Jong-il’s bombs than are North Korea’s immediate neighbours. But if North Korea “gets away with it”, Iran is likely to draw some conclusions that are very unwelcome to the US.

The first lesson is that if a country can only get across the nuclear finishing line, it becomes much less vulnerable to military strikes. The second is that the Bush administration’s talk of its implacable determination to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction to dangerous regimes is just that — talk.

[whistle]

1. Third, it proves that Shrub* is just as crazy as Kim Jong-il