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Who can WIN the Electoral College in 2008?

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BluegrassDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:16 PM
Original message
Who can WIN the Electoral College in 2008?
Edited on Fri Oct-13-06 11:20 PM by BluegrassDem
I know everyone here gets caught up in the '08 race and who can win, but I rarely see anyone analyze who can actually win the EC, which is how we elect the president. Turning out the base of progressives in NYC, L.A, and Seattle won't win us the presidency. I think we need a candidate who can win the tough states.

As much as I love Hillary, I'm not that confident she can win the EC. She could pull Arkansas though.

I love Feingold too, but he would do worse than Hillary in the EC. He would get plastered, IMO.

Gore...well, Tennessee is a trouble spot for him. But at least this time around he could probably win New Hampshire.

Clark is a super guy, but a lousy politician and campaigner. He's great on paper, but doesn't seem to work out so well on the stump. He may be better suited for veep.

Richardson on the surface appears like someone who could pull some new states in for us.

Evan Bayh could turn Indiana blue and possible have a residual effect in Ohio and Kentucky. Those states could win the election w/out any southern states.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. Al Gore
Edited on Fri Oct-13-06 11:21 PM by Selatius
There is no one else who reminds people of calmer times than Al Gore. Besides, he is due. If he runs, he should take Howard Dean's advice and run a 50-state campaign.

He should run on economic populism and reform.
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BluegrassDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Gore is due
But I'm a little bit squeamish about seeing a re-run of 2000. A part of me wants someone new. Plus, I'm still pissed at Gore for not using Bill Clinton and making Lieberman his VP. Those were BAD decisions, IMO.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. As far as I know, he himself says he ran a horrible campaign
Edited on Fri Oct-13-06 11:31 PM by Selatius
He would probably be more comfortable running on economic populism than on the DLC Third Way, which is what he ran on in 2000. Of course, he left the DLC since then, so he is even freer to pursue economic populism than he was ever capable of in 2000. I'm sorry, but free-trade in its current form is not progressive, and it never was, and I'm speculating here when I say he knows that as well deep down inside.
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fuzzyball Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Evan Bayh is the only candidate capable of turning many red states
and has the pedigree, experience, looks to be president. Granted he
is not as charismatic as Bill Jefferson Clinton. But I can't see another
candidate with better chance.

I am however, supporting Hillary, since I am a Clinton fan.
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #4
29. We do NOT need a candidate that turns red states blue
We need a grass roots organization in every state that turns red states blue. Dems have to stop building that inverted pyramid, where everything rests on the candidate.

Its about the people, not one person.
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fuzzyball Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #29
47. Easier to pick ONE good candidate Vs. Millions of grass roots people
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #47
59. If I have to chose between easy and effective
I'll chose effective.

If Dems want to win, and continue winning, we have to stop using our presidential candidates as magic bullets. Magic bullets are fine for late night TV shows when you want to kill the monster, but have proven to be a poor strategy for winning national elections.
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #4
34. The best Bayh could do is put Indiana in the D Column
That is it!!

Bayh is boring boring boring. People will try to listen to him the first time and after that turn him off. He also doesn't relate well with others especially with regular folks.
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fuzzyball Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #34
48. Bayh turns Indiana, Ohio & Iowa, possibly others plus gets all blue states
Edited on Sat Oct-14-06 07:25 PM by fuzzyball
Gore was NOT boring and he could not win his home state of TN.

I don't believe most voters go for a firebrand candidate. They
look for someone who looks trustworthy to THEM.
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 08:44 PM
Response to Reply #48
54. I've been involved in politics here in Indiana since 88
I've voted for Bayh in 86 for Secretary of State, 88 and 92 for Governor, 1998 & 2004 for Senator. I've been to many pep rallies, State Conventions, JJ's and other events with Bayh as a speaker. He does not have passion, does not hold the audience. He does not relate to people. The ONLY advantage Bayh has is his wife and twin boys.
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fuzzyball Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #54
55. And Indiana, a red state, keeps electing him...stands for something
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #55
56. Because of his name... his daddy is former Senator Birch Bayh
They didn't have well known candidates on the Republican side in 1998 with Paul Helmke (34%) or 2002 with Marvin Scott (37%)

And just because a state is perceived to be blue doesn't mean it will vote everyone that is a Democrat and vice versus with it being red.

In 1988 & 1992 Indiana elected Evan Bayh as Governor and in 1996 & 2000 it elected Frank O'Bannon as Governor. Both Democrats. Frank O'Bannon had considered running for Governor in 1988 but pulled out. It was considered that Bayh had a better chance of winning then O'Bannon. O'Bannon served as Lt Governor during Bayh's term.

The last time we had a Democrat for Secretary of State we had Joe Hogsett during Bayh's time in office as Governor.

We've also elected a Democrat as Mayor of Fort Wayne in 1999 & 2001. Republican Helmke was Mayor the previous 3 terms. Indianapolis elected a Democrat for their Mayor also in 1999 & 2001. Previously, Indianapolis only had Republicans as Mayors from 1968 to 1999. That is 30 some years. The reason that Indianapolis may continue to elect Democrats as their Mayor for some time is what is called the doughnut effect. Meaning that Republicans are moving out of the county to the surrounding counties.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #1
53. President Gore needs to serve at least one term.
And he already proved he could win before under adverse circumstances.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
5. Yeah, that seems to be an overlooked little matter
I thought Warner had the best shot. He did. That was always my reason for backing him. Hillary probably needs to win the popular vote by 2 or 3 percent to carry the electoral college with her, states like Ohio or Florida. I suppose that's possible but as a betting man I'd go the other way. In 2008 the popular vote figures to be extremely close to 50/50, based on elections with one party in charge exactly two straight cycles -- 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000. All were coin flips. The one recent exception was 1988, when voters wanted a third Reagan term and we nominated the tank commander.

Otherwise, I'd say Gore, slightly above Edwards. Neither can win his home state but neither can Bayh. Remarkable how we have so many in that supposedly rare category. But Guiliani would lose New York so it's contagious.

Indiana votes nearly 20 points red compared to the national average, on the presidential level. Bayh may be able to chop half of that or slightly more, but no way he's overwhelming a number like that and actually carrying the state.

Gore should have won Florida and came within four points in Ohio despite abandoning the state prematurely. That leads me to believe he's our best shot at 270. No one will question his credentials, unlike Edwards, plus Gore has already been Swift Boated.

I don't think any of our candidates can carry Virginia without Warner at VP. The northern counties are trending blue but the state still figures to be 3-4 points red at base instinct in 2008.

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robinlynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:43 AM
Response to Reply #5
17. um. He DID win Florida.
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BluegrassDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 02:36 AM
Response to Reply #5
22. I think Bayh could deliver Indiana
Hoosiers love their own and the main and his family are very popular in the state. If the 2008 election were close and Bayh was the nominee, Indiana would go with Bayh. They want to see a Hoosier in the White House. There's no way McCain would beat Bayh in Indiana...no way. Unlike Gore, Bayh is incredibly popular in his state.

And like I said, there could be ripple effects in Kentucky and Ohio, securing an EC majority.
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fuzzyball Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #5
65. Warner quitting tells me it will be Hillary/Warner ticket in 2008
Looks to me like Hillary made a deal with Warner to
guarantee him VP slot.
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politicasista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
6. Who can win the electoral college in 2006? n/t
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
38. there isn't a soul alive who could win the electoral college in 2006
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emmadoggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:56 PM
Response to Original message
7. Al Gore.
:)
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phiddle Donating Member (749 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
8. Wes Clark
Getting into the '04 primaries late, he won Oklahoma and (I believe) Tennessee, and placed a strong second to a vastly better funded Kerry in Nemw Mexico. He gives the democratic message on everything, especially national security, very directly and cogently.
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:34 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. Clark came in third in TN behind Kerry and Edwards.
OK was his only first place finish.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 03:40 AM
Response to Reply #15
24. and the same mini Tuesday that Edwards won South Carolina,
Clark won Oklahoma, but Clark also had defeated Edwards in their first contest in New Hampshire.....Clark also beat Edwards in Arizona, New Mexico and South Dakota that same mini tuesday.

South Carolina was John Edwards only first place finish...while Clark was in the race.

Of course, John Edwards sucked up all of the press, Second only to John Kerry who beat everyone just about everywhere.





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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #24
33. Mini Tuesdays results, ordered by elec. votes, for discussion
Top Finishers on Mini Tuesday:

Missouri - 11
Kerry, John F. 211,745 (50.6%)
Edwards, John 103,088 (24.6%)
Dean, Howard 36,288 (8.7%)
Clark, Wesley K. 18,340 4.4%

Arizona - 10
Kerry, John F. 101,809 (42.6%)
Clark, Wesley K. 63,256 (26.5%)
Dean, Howard 33,555 (14.0%)
Edwards, John 16,596 (6.9%)

South Carolina - 8
Edwards, John 132,660 (45.1%)
Kerry, John F. 87,620 (29.8%)
Sharpton, Alfred C. "Al" 28,495 (9.7%)
Clark, Wesley K. 21,218 (7.2%)
Dean, Howard 13,984 (4.8%)

Oklahoma - 7
Clark, Wesley K. 90,526 (29.9%)
Edwards, John 89,310 (29.5%)
Kerry, John F. 81,073 (26.8%)

New Mexico - 5
Kerry, John F. 43,553 (42.6%)
Clark, Wesley K. 20,883 (20.4%)
Dean, Howard 16,747 (16.4%)
Edwards, John 11,440 (11.2%)

North Dakota -3
Kerry, John F. 5,366 (50.8%)
Clark, Wesley K. 2,502 (23.7%)
Dean, Howard 1,231 (11.7%)
Edwards, John 1,025 (9.7%)

Delaware - 3
Kerry, John F. 16,787 (50.4%)
Lieberman, Joe 3,706 (11.1%)
Edwards, John 3,674 (11.0%)
Dean, Howard 3,462 (10.4%)
Clark, Wesley K. 3,165 (9.5%)

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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #33
35. Edwards did more than fine on the first 2004 Super Tuesday, however ...
Edited on Sat Oct-14-06 11:56 AM by Tom Rinaldo
...under the circumstances that existed at the time, Clark did fine also, but not as well as he needed to do obviously. Though South Carolina was at one point heavily contested, and I agree that Clark at one time put significant resources into it, South Carolina always figured heavily into John Edward's strategy during the weeks that preceded the Iowa caucus. Edwards had a clear southern strategy at that point, seeing the south as his natural home base, and in order for that to be credible Edwards HAD to win South Carolina, his neighbor state and state of birth, and he devoted serious resources toward that end.

Clark was pursuing a national strategy during that period in his campaign, so he was not putting most of his eggs in any one basket, with the partial exception of New Hampshire of course. Clark was more or less counting on Dean and Gephardt, in one order or the other, finishing one two in Iowa as most had foreseen. The extent of Gerhardt's and Dean's collapse in Iowa took Clark and almost everyone else by surprise. The fact that BOTH collapsed there is what doomed Clark's campaign in my opinion. Gephardt had no organization outside of Iowa to speak of, so had Gephardt scored high in Iowa he would not have been much of a threat to Clark who did not compete there. Clark was already counting on Dean doing well in Iowa, so that would not have thrown any curve balls at his organization. When both did poorly there, that opened a door to BOTH Kerry and Edwards which spelled big trouble for Clark.

The other thing Clark probably miscalculated was the extent to which the media would play up the Iowa results in 2004, far more than they had in any other election cycle. In previous elections more stress was put on waiting to see how New Hampshire voted, in the first actual secret ballot election rather than a caucus. So even though Wes Clark DID still finish first among non New England favorite son candidates in New Hampshire, edging out John Edwards for third place there, as far as the media was concerned it was almost as if he no longer existed after Iowa. That set up the scenario for the first Super Tuesday that quickly followed.

To demonstrate that he was a National candidate, Clark had chosen to spread out his resources in anticipation of riding some momentum out of New Hampshire. Hence the results show Clark coming in second in states as diverse as New Mexico and North Dakota while he won in Oklahoma. Clark never put resources into Missouri, even though it is an important state, because he was willing to write that one off to Gephardt as a favorite son, never anticipating that Gephardt would drop out of the race without ever reaching his home state, since as a leading Democrat, it was assumed Gephardt would want to lead that state's delegation to the Democratic National Convention. Keep in mind that Missouri was an expensive major media State, with both the Kansas City and St. Louis markets that needed to be saturated by anyone wanting to mount a real campaign there. As it turned out, none of our candidates mounted much of a campaign there, so what drove that primary race was free media coverage of the election, and at that point free media coverage was all about the two John's, Kerry and Edwards, and I think that the results there reflected that.

So what you see in the results for Super Tuesday is Edwards consolidating his position as "the Southern candidate" while doing reasonably well in the other mid Eastern Sea Coast contest, Delaware. You see him reaping the riches of being a media favorite in the suddenly wide open state of Missouri, and you see him polling very well in Oklahoma, a State which, like Clark, Edwards poured resources into coming out of Iowa, since Oklahoma had the sort of profile that a candidate like Clark or Edwards could do well in. In fact it is the only State that John Kerry did not finish in the top two in.

You also have results from that night that show that Wes Clark had strong potential for nation wide appeal. Remember he already was the top non New Englander to finish in New Hampshire, now he was showing strength in the nation's center, winning Oklahoma and coming in second in North Dakota, and Clark was showing real strength in the important to Democrats fortunes South West, decisively defeating Edwards for second place in Arizona, and solidly beating Edwards for second place in New Mexico. It was all too little too late for Clark, the horse had already left the barn in Iowa as it turned out. Even so, Clark running as the near forgotten "other candidate" for the remaining primaries that he competed in before endorsing John Kerry prior to the Wisconsin vote, showed he could attract support in the South also, with a rather strong 3rd place showing in Tennessee, where he polled about a fourth of the vote, ending up a just few percentage points behind Edwards and not much further behind Kerry in that contest.
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Catchawave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #35
52. 2004 had NO GOP primaries for President.....
My state was an open primary, and my puke friends voted for the dem they thought bush could beat. In Virginia, Kerry won. To this day, I think Kerry did as well as he did BECAUSE he had Edwards on the ticket.

Which also makes me think Gore would have blown past Bush in 2000 with Edwards on the ticket too. (Edwards and Kerry were his 2nd and 3rd choices behind Lieberman). Who knows :shrug:

My thought, no matter who the Dem Prez nom is, he better have Obama as V.P., as he is where Edwards was at in 2000, a first term Rock Star Senator!

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Lexingtonian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:05 AM
Response to Original message
9. 2008 is not 2004 or 2000

Yo assume somehow that the country will be as far Right in 2008 as it was in 2002-2004. If anything, isn't the country neutralizing- shifting leftward- now, and hasn't it been doing that for the past two years? Two years from now we may be looking at a country looking for a center-Left national government.

Secondly, you assume that regionality remains somehow important. It's important in the South, the rest of the country is less interested in that kind of thing.

The 2004 Red states that should swing Democratic in 2008 are, at a minimum, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio. Florida, Missouri, and Arizona are going to be within reach. Virginia, West Virginia, and Arkansas would go Democratic if there's a landslide election, with a few really small states also possible.

Personally, I think the Republican implosion will continue into 2007 and 2008. It's not clear whether the Christian Right or the economic Right wins control of the party in the fight that is to come, but it is clear (looking at the polling and talk) that their moderates are looking at defection from the dysfunctional nuthouse of 19th century ideas their Party is.

To me the question is whether Republicans can even put up a credible platform or candidate in 2008. Certainly not both, let alone provide the man with a credible and viable Party to back him up. I don't think the toleration that remains of hypocrisy and failed policies and poor priorities is high enough anymore to get McCain, Jeb Bush, or Mitt Romney into the Presidency.

I have no idea what Democrats will perceive as the necessary job and job skills of their candidate in '08. My guess is skill at international diplomacy (given the wreckage that is the Bush foreign policy) and good communication skills, plus moral courage, needed to make the social law changes that end the Gender War and Culture War(s) and the War On Brown People. There would also be a need to negotiate former moderate Republicans into the expanding Democratic coalition.

During the next two years a Democratic Congress will probably take lots of power back from the lame and failing Bush Presidency; a Democratic President in '09 will inherit a far weaker office than Bush did. Congress will then also have to do more of the governance work of the Party and take more responsibility.

Sure sounds rosy, but that's what happens with a crashout of the Republicans. That baseline decline in trust of hardline Republicans (at a rate of 1% of the electorate giving up on them per month since 2001) is not going to magically just stop in mid or late 2006 at 32% support left. It's going to continue down to the 24% mark, at very least.
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fat dad Donating Member (78 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:11 AM
Response to Original message
10. You forgetting John Edwards?
He's everything Bush isn't - much like Carter was to Nixon. He could deliver North Carolina, possibly Florida. Blue collar Ohioans woud vote for him, too.
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Catchawave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
36. He scores high on crossover appeal.
That's what will be helping him for 2008. Also, there won't be that glut of republicans showing up in Open Primaries voting against popular Dems.
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hijinx87 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #10
37. he didn't deliver NC in 2004.

much less any other southern state.



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Catchawave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #37
49. NC is a Swiftboat State too....
HUGE Vietnam Vet retired military population (Camp Lejuene and Fort Bragg areas for two). Who was at the TOP of the ticket, eh? Now if the ticket were reversed....?



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violetandblue Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #10
63. I think Edwards....
would've done better in Ohio had our primary not been so late. It was basically already determined by that point. Edwards still did well here, though. Old lady Republicans LOVE him.

People are saying Joe Biden (Bieden?) because he has foreign policy experience. I really don't know much about him, but being from the northeast, he may run into the same problems as Kerry did (appealing to moderate voters). Isn't Ev Bayh pretty conservative? That's basically all I know about him. Maybe he could help in the Dayton/Cincy area (since they're so close to the border).
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violetandblue Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. Also...
I think ANY Democratic candidate will have a better shot once we get Ted Strickland in the governor's seat in Ohio. We need to assure that there are no "kinks" in the voting system. Hopefully, he will listen to Kucinich and some of his other fellow congresspeople who are wanting measures to be taken. It would be nice if we could get Florida sorted out, too. Does Florida have a governor's race this year? If not, I wish Jeb would sleep with an intern or something so we could get him out!
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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:12 AM
Response to Original message
11. The political theory of the moment is for the Dems to try to capture the
West, in a realignment, and concede that the bulk of the South will remain Republican. I'm not sure I agree entirely with this theory, but if it remains the theory du jour in 2008, look for the veep to be a westerner, quite possibly someone not well known nationally.
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
12. I think the question is, who do you want to be president?, rather than
who do you think could win?

What kind of Democrat do you want to be president?
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Kerry fan Donating Member (351 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. John Kerry.
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. And what does Kerry represent for you?
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #16
58. The Anti-corruption, Open-honest government wing of the Democratic party.
Edited on Sun Oct-15-06 11:14 AM by blm
And the person who won with more votes than any Democrat in history.

Too bad the DNC Clinton and Terry McAuliffe oversaw allowed the collapse of the Dem party infrastructure in so many crucial states - they couldn't secure the election process for ANY Democrat.
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Clarkie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:29 AM
Response to Original message
14. We can win every electoral vote if we choose our candidate wisely. nt
Edited on Sat Oct-14-06 12:31 AM by Clarkie1
Edit: I'm not exaggerating. If the Republicans could do it in the 80s (or nearly do it, can't quite recall how close Reagan got), we can do it in 2008.
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hijinx87 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #14
41. 1984. it was an agonizing wipe out.

mondale won his home state of MN, and DC.

I didn't even run, and I almost tied him.
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Clarkie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #41
46. There is no reason why a wipe-out of that magnitude cannot be achieved by
Democrats, in my opinion.
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Crunchy Frog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
18. I have to disagree with your assessment of Clark.
I'm not going to fight with anyone over it, but I want to state for the record that I believe the assessment is profoundly wrong and that I don't believe there is substantive evidence to back it up.

(Saving my candidate fights until after the November elections.)
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 06:06 AM
Response to Reply #18
32. Put your battle gear on, after Nov. it'll be Dem bashing
until they announce or fall away.

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stevedeshazer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 01:22 AM
Response to Original message
19. Focus. It's 2006!
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hijinx87 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #19
39. speculating about 2008 isn't going to hurt our chances in 2006

it's a terrifically interesting topic. and this is a political
message board.

I am getting weary of people telling me I can't discuss 2008 because
it isn't here yet, and implying that doing so hurts our chances in 2006.

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stevedeshazer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #39
44. Go ahead and speculate, it's your right
I postulate that it does hurt our chances in 2006, because if we don't make progress now, it hurts our chances in 2008.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 01:31 AM
Response to Original message
20. Well good to see you bought into the sooper Dooper Pundit crap!!
Edited on Sat Oct-14-06 01:37 AM by FrenchieCat
Clark is a super guy, but a lousy politician and campaigner. He's great on paper, but doesn't seem to work out so well on the stump. He may be better suited for veep.

What-E-Ver.....


Man came in 4.5 months before the vote, raised more money than Dean in January, and more money than all of the others in his short time.......and told more truth than all of the rest put together (Dean told the truth as well, but did he ever mention PNAC?-Clark got dogged for Michael Moore calling Bush what he really was; a deserter).....didn't contest Iowa, and still manage 3rd place in front of Edwards (And both JOhnnies had momentum big time)in New Hampshire....and beat Edwards in Oklahoma (where Edwards had been campaigning forever), South Dakota, New Mexico and Arizona...all swing states.

Your assessment is nothing but an uneducated summary based on nothing by persuasive Corporate Pundit Crap mass marketed to the uninformed mass!

and the truth be told

Edwards was on the ticket and we ain't in the White House; the man didn't win even his own state

and I don't want to hear the excuse about nobody votes for Veep...cause that ain't exactly been confirmed. :eyes:


Let me go back to working for 2006....and stop dealing with the dumb shit!
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BluegrassDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 02:30 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. Clark is not a good politician...period.
The guy's a soldier, born and bred. He started his campaign saying that if he were in Congress, he would've voted for the Iraq resolution, then spent the rest of his entire campaign trying to explain his way out of it! I mean, we can't afford to have a candidate making big gaffes like that. I would feel much more comfortable if he were elected to some other office first. This country has never elected anyone president that never held prior political office. At least not in modern history. There's a reason for that. Clark would make a great VP, but we need someone more politically seasoned.

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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 03:21 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. You have a right to your opinion....but that is all......
Edited on Sat Oct-14-06 03:42 AM by FrenchieCat
The "BIG" "gaffe" coming the day that he announced on his first day ever into politics was magnified because that is what the media was aimed at doing.....and guess according to you, it worked out for them just fine.

I never did say that Wes Clark was perfect, but he certainly DIDN'T vote for that resolution and then said sorry about it 3 years later after the polls had turned.

To me those who did were the ones who's actions were the irreversable "BIG" gaffes, cause it was not their words....but rather their actions that spoke bigtime.


September 25, 2003
Yes, We Have No Flip-Flop
Posted by Mark Kleiman

Clark was presented with a very tempting opportunity. When asked these questions about the resolution, he could have easily declared his opposition. This would have made for easy pot shots against his congressional rivals and might have instantly swiped a portion of the antiwar left from Howard Dean. Instead, he frankly stated a position that gives him no short-term political advantage. And over the next few months, if he's lucky, this straight-forwardness might make a compelling contrast to the demagoguery of certain candidates from small New England states who are too easily "shocked."
http://www.samefacts.com/archives/wesley_clark_/2003/09/yes_we_have_no_flipflop.php


Clark wasn't FOR the blank check in 2002 meaning the resolution....so whatever he may have said in 2003 really doesn't amount to shit on a stick, unless that's what some wanted to make it be.

and yes, he made a "Gaffe", and so did all of the others.....and in my estimation, his gaffe was miniscule in comparison.

He clarified what he had said the next day, NOT THREE FUCKING YEARS LATER.....and for that they hounded him...sure. They had their orders....and they followed them, like good little media soldiers.

But if you read what he said when it actually counted for the good of our Nation rather than in some one interview on his first day in politics where a "gotcha" was being fished for...then, I'll take and accept what you choose to declare as a "big" gaffe....and I'll say, if that's all it takes to be a bad "politician"....than yes, Clark is possibly too honest to run for office in this country. Maybe it would be best left to have our country ran by some pandering, slicktalking, backstabbing, calculating, insincere but gifted with the no Gaffe "playing it safe" ball-less politician.

However, your other "fact" is wrong...in discussing what has and has not happened in our history. Please note that the last time that we had an election that will resemble 2008 the most was in 1952. We were at war, and there were no incumbents running from either party. That is the year that Eisenhower, a General who had held no previous elected position won the presidency. Maybe Clark is no Eisenhower....but in comparison to the rest of the field, he actually comes the closest without any other coming even close.
------------
WHAT CLARK ACTUALLY SAID.....

On August 2, 2002, Clark said, regarding a possible invasion of Iraq, "We seem to have skipped some steps in the logic of the debate. And, as the American people are brought into this, they're asking these questions." CNN, 8/2/02

On August 29, 2002, Clark said regarding a proposed invasion of Iraq, "Well, taking it to the United Nations doesn't put America's foreign policy into the hands of the French. What you have to do as the United States is you have to get other nations to commit and come in with you, and so you've got to provide the evidence, and the convincing of the French and the French public, and the leadership elite. Look, there's a war fever out there right now in some quarters of some of the leadership elements in this country, apparently, because I keep hearing this sense of urgency and so forth. Where is that coming from? The vice president said that today he doesn't know when they're going to get nuclear weapons. They've been trying to get nuclear weapons for -- for 20 years.So if there's some smoking gun, if there's some really key piece of information that hasn't been shared publicly, maybe they can share it with the French." CNN, 8/29/02

On August 29, 2002, Clark said, regarding a possible invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, "I think -- but I think that underneath, what you're going to have is you're going to have more boiling in the street. You're going to have deeper anger and you're going to feed the recruitment efforts of Al Qaeda. And this is the key point, I think, that we're at here. The question is what's the greater threat? Three thousand dead in the World Trade Center and the Pentagon underscore the fact that the threat we're facing primarily is Al Qaeda. We have to work the Iraq problem around dealing with Al Qaeda. And the key thing about dealing with Al Qaeda is, we can't win that war alone." CNN, 8/29/02

On August 29, 2002, Clark said, regarding a possible invasion of Iraq, "My perspective would be I'd like to see us slow down the rush to go after Saddam Hussein unless there's some clear convincing evidence that we haven't had shared with the public that he's right on the verge of getting nuclear weapons. CNN, 8/29/02

On August 30, 2002, Clark said, regarding a possible invasion of Iraq, "Going after Iraq right now is at best a diversion, and at worst it risks the possibility of strengthening Al Qaeda and undercutting our coalition at a critical time. So at the strategic level, I think we have to keep our eye on the ball and focus on the number one strategic priority. There are a lot of other concerns as well, but that's the main one." CNN, 8/30/02

On August 30, 2002, Clark said, regarding a possible invasion of Iraq, "It seems that way to me. It seems that this would supercharge the opinion, not necessarily of the elites in the Arab world, who may bow to the inevitability of the United States and its power, but the radical groups in the Middle East, who are looking for reasons and gaining more recruits every time the United States makes a unilateral move by force. They will gain strength from something like this. We can well end up in Iraq with thousands of military forces tied down, and a worse problem in coping with a war on terror here in the United States or Europe, or elsewhere around the world." CNN, 8/30/02

September 16, 2002:
Clark said Congress shouldn't give a "blank check," to Use Force Against Iraq.

On September 16, 2002, Clark said, regarding Iraq and possible Congressional authorization to use force, "Don't give a blank check. Don't just say, you are authorized to use force. Say what the objectives are. Say what the limitations are, say what the constraints and restraints are. What is it that we, the United States of America, hope to accomplish in this operation?" CNN 9/16/02


WOODRUFF: How much difference does it make, the wording of these resolution or resolutions that Congress would pass in terms of what the president is able to do after?

CLARK: I think it does make a difference because I think that Congress, the American people's representatives, can specify what it is they hope that the country will stand for and what it will do.

So I think the -- what people say is, don't give a blank check. Don't just say, you are authorized to use force. Say what the objectives are. Say what the limitations are, say what the constraints and restraints are. What is it that we, the United States of America, hope to accomplish in this operation.

And I think that the support will be stronger and it will be more reliable and more consistent if we are able to put the specifics into the resolution.
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0209/16/ip.00.html



On September 23, 2002, Clark said, regarding Iraq and possible Congressional authorization for the use of force, "When you're talking about American men and women going and facing the risk we've been talking about this afternoon... you want to be sure that you're using force and expending American blood and lives in treasure as the ultimate last resort. Not because of a sense of impatience with the arcane ways of international institutions." Senate Committee on Armed Forces 9/23/02
http://armedservices.house.gov/openingstatementsandpressreleases/107thcongress/02-09-26clark.html

On October 5, 2002, Clark said, regarding debate on Congressional authorization for war against Iraq, "The way the debate has emerged, it's appeared as though to the American people, at least to many that talk to me, as though the administration jumped to the conclusion that it wanted war first and then the diplomacy has followed." CNN 10/5/02

On January 23, 2003, Clark said, regarding the case the United States had made for war against Iraq to the United Nations, "There are problems with the case that the U.S. is making, because the U.S. hasn't presented publicly the clear, overwhelming sense of urgency to galvanize the world community to immediate military action now."CNN 1/23/03
http://www.clark04.com/faq/iraq.html

-----------
There were some of our prominent leaders who chose to listen to the wise words of Wes Clark, and reacted the better for it, i.e., no "BIG ASS" Gaffes to apologize for 3 years later! :eyes:

Here's is Ted Kennedy on Larry King pretty recently....

KING: Why did you vote against?

KENNEDY: Well, I'm on the Armed Services Committee and I was inclined to support the administration when we started the hearings in the Armed Services Committee. And, it was enormously interesting to me that those that had been -- that were in the armed forces that had served in combat were universally opposed to going.

I mean we had Wes Clark testify in opposition to going to war at that time. You had General Zinni. You had General (INAUDIBLE). You had General Nash. You had the series of different military officials, a number of whom had been involved in the Gulf I War, others involved in Kosovo and had distinguished records in Vietnam, battle-hardened combat military figures. And, virtually all of them said no, this is not going to work and they virtually identified...

KING: And that's what moved you?

KENNEDY: And that really was -- influenced me to the greatest degree. And the second point that influenced me was in the time that we were having the briefings and these were classified. They've been declassified now. Secretary Rumsfeld came up and said "There are weapons of mass destruction north, south, east and west of Baghdad." This was his testimony in the Armed Services Committee.

And at that time Senator Levin, who is an enormously gifted, talented member of the Armed Services Committee said, "Well, we're now providing this information to the inspectors aren't we?" This is just before the war. "Oh, yes, we're providing that." "But are they finding anything?" "No."
snip
There were probably eight Senators on the Friday before the Thursday we voted on it. It got up to 23. I think if that had gone on another -- we had waited another ten days, I think you may have had a different story.
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/20/lkl.01.html


and Sen. Levin, who showed up with Clark at a WesPAC fundraiser a few months ago....here's what he said on the floor of the Senate BEFORE THE IWR VOTE when he submitted his own resolution THAT WASN'T A BLANK CHECK...:

"General Clark, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, who testified at the same hearing, echoed the views of General Shalikashvili and added "we need to be certain we really are working through the United Nations in an effort to strengthen the institution in this process and not simply checking a block."
http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/10.05B.levin.dont.p.htm

and the late great Sen. Paul Wellstone–
“As General Wes Clark, former Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe has recently noted, a premature go-it-alone invasion of Iraq "would super-charge recruiting for Al Qaida."
http://www.wellstone.org/news/news_detail.aspx?itemID=2778&catID=298





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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 03:47 AM
Response to Reply #21
25. "At least not in modern history." Really? Guess what...
The last time we elected someone whose last political office held was United States Senator was just four years after the last time we elected a President who was a General.

Ike in 1956, JFK in 1960. Look it up. All other former Senators who have been elected President since 1960 got there by being Vice President first. But no party has run a General since 1956, so none have lost since Ike. Senators however, hmmmm. Oh yeah, John Kerry. Oh yeah, Bob Dole. Oh yeah, George McGovern. Oh yeah, Barry Goldwater.

That stupid exercise proved a lot didn't it? The first time Al Gore ran for President by the way wasn't in 2000. The first time was in 1988 when he couldn't beat Micahale Dukakis for the Democratic nomination. You think that proved Gore can't win the Presidency? Think again. And while you are at it, why not think a few times before posting flame bait on Democratic Underground less than four weeks before Congressional elections that we have to work together to win.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 04:22 AM
Response to Reply #21
26. information update
Edited on Sat Oct-14-06 04:30 AM by AtomicKitten
While Clark was a bit green in 2004, he has been pounding the campaign trail for Democrats all over the country since then polishing his politicking. Considering most potential candidates turn to Velveeta in the Senate after a certain expiration date, Clark's fresh viewpoint is a huge plus. Clark is much more than a soldier. He was NATO Supreme Allied Commander, has a Masters in Economics from Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar, and is fluent in four languages. I hope you will have the opportunity to take a fresh look at him if he runs in 2008.

On edit: For your edification to put this post in perspective, I am an ardent Al Gore supporter but felt you are selling Wesley Clark short unfairly.
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 04:36 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. You are always a class act AtomicKitten
And I've always loved your mouse too. If we end up with Al Gore as our 2008 nominee I will be delighted, and of course you already know that I am an ardend Wes Clark supporter.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 04:45 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. not always and I'm sure others would agree - ha, ha
I supported Wes in 2004 when Gore declined to run and will do so again if the same circumstances arise. And I'd love Obama to be the VP running mate. IMO these boys have a fire in their belly that sets them apart. They will ante up the inspiration America is desperate for - in spades.
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wiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #27
40. She is!
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 05:40 AM
Response to Original message
30. Al Gore. Here's why:
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 05:48 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. Actually, a Gore/Clark ticket sounds good. /nt
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thatsrightimirish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
42. I think Bill Richardson
He could give us New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and possibly even Montana
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BluegrassDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. AZ will not go blue if McCain is the nominee
But Richardson will definitely cause NM to go blue and possibly help in Nevada and Colorado.

So far Richardson and Bayh seem like the only candidates assured of flipping states for us.
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #43
45. Clark would easily flip Arkansas, but I know how you feel about Clark
So never mind.
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Catchawave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #43
50. I supported McCain in 2000, but he lost me forever
for not defending his family against that early Rove Machine.
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seabeyond Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-14-06 07:33 PM
Response to Original message
51. since i think both kerry and gore won,.... i think by 2008 about
all our people could win sorry to say, but hillary...
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 11:08 AM
Response to Original message
57. To win the EC all Dems need is a SECURE ELECTION PROCESS
where the voters who want to vote also get their votes COUNTED accurately and not flipped to the Republican.

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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 01:22 PM
Response to Original message
60. Someone with vision who will rise above culture war bickering.
Gore, Edwards, and Clark seem like good bets.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
61. Judging by the responses
on this thread, we've learned exactly nothing from 2004. One thing I will never do again, is vote for someone based on his supposed appeal to others, or because of some dubious electoral college math.
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Schema Thing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
62. What absolute horseshit, your comments regarding Clark
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 04:24 PM
Response to Original message
66. Diebold
any questions?
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-15-06 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #66
67. Yeah, fatalism sucks.
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