How Bad Will It Be?

[Gman]

How Bad Will It Be?
The GOP debacle to come.
by Fred Barnes
10/23/2006, Volume 012, Issue 06

REPUBLICANS and conservatives, brace yourselves! Strategists and consultants of both parties now believe the House is lost and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi will become speaker. At best, Republicans will cling to control of the Senate by a single seat, two at most. For many election cycles, Republicans have been the boys of October, using paid media and superior campaign skills to make up lost ground and win in November. This year, they were the boys of September, rallying strongly until that fateful day, September 29, when the Mark Foley scandal erupted. October has been a disaster so far. A strong finishing kick for Republicans, minimizing Democratic gains, is possible. They pulled one off brilliantly in President Bush's first midterm election in 2002. But recovery will be harder this time, a lot harder.
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The most overlooked election indicator is the level of voter enthusiasm. In every election from 1994 through 2004, Republicans were more enthusiastic than Democrats. That was a decade of Republican growth. This year Democrats are more excited. And it's measurable. In 2002, 42 percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about the election. Thirty-eight percent of Democrats said the same. In 2006, the numbers have flipped. Republican enthusiasm has dipped to 39 percent and Democratic enthusiasm has jumped to 48 percent. Enthusiasm affects turnout. Gloomy voters are less inclined to vote.
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This explains why efforts by Bush and Republicans to target Democrats have been so unsuccessful. A veteran Republican consultant says lavish spending on TV commercials in races he's involved in has largely failed to either boost the poll numbers of his Republican candidates or drive down those of Democrats. Worse, in blue states, the Democratic crossover vote on which Republican candidates often rely has dried up. Democrats have gone home in droves.
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The problem here is that national security isn't the leading campaign issue. And saying it should be won't make it so. What's needed is an event--a big event--to crystallize the issue in a way that highlights Republican strength and Democratic weakness. It was two events--the foiled British terrorist plot and the need to comply with a Supreme Court decision on handling captured terrorists--that led to the Republican mini-rally in September.


http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/817vxgub.asp?pg=2

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Barnes goes on to say that Democrats are fearful of Rove orchestrating an event like the capture of OBL. He says Rove is good but not that good. Barnes doesn't mention that the USS Eisenhauer will arrive off the Iranian coast on October 21.

Overall good article about how the GOP just can't do anything right or get any traction this year.

[atommom]

1. Pretty damn good, that's how bad.

:)

[gasperc]

2. if they do ANYthing to Iran, gas prices will skyrocket

any ACT tough gambit, will be instantly negated by people's furor over fuel prices skyrocketing. Americans are dumb that way, we want winnable wars AND cheap gas, AT THE SAME TIME

[twilight_sailing]

3. gasperc

Not only that but Americans want War and tax cuts at the same time.

[datavg]

15. I"m Reminded Of...

...my college Econ prof who used to talk about "guns and butter", in reference to all the social spending for the Great Society plus funding for the Vietnam War during the late Sixties and Seventies. I think she's dead now but her comments are more valid than ever before.

We're playing the same game right now. Bob Rubin said on Charlie Rose several years ago that he thought there was a 75 percent chance of a "currency event" in the next five years. I know for a fact that our family budget doesn't go as far as it used to, and we make a decent buck. Groceries have become ridiculous. We all know about the gas prices. California real estate isn't even worth discussing.

[ktowntennesseedem]

4. Gas wouldn't skyrocket right away, though.

We could bomb the hell out of Iran and it should be good enough for at least a couple of weeks worth of "suppport the troops/support the president/vote GOP" momentum. If they time the start of "Operation-Here-We-Go-Again" just right, they could potentially ride a mini-wave of support from the kool-aide drinkers through to the elections. The fallout wouldn't show up at the pumps until around Nov 8, B*sh and the GOP hold on to power, and we're screwed for two more years.

At least that's how I imagine KKKarl's playbook right about now. Might not happen, and even if it does it might even backfire. But I won't be surprised by anything they try, and I won't rest easy until Nov 8 and can confirm the Dems took both houses.

[MoonRiver]

5. I am by no means an expert,

but my gut tells me an invasion of Iran would backfire, bigtime. People would wonder why the hell we're not invading North Korea, a clear and present danger to the homeland, rather than Iran, which doesn't have nukes yet. I don't see how anybody could spin this to help the Pukes.

[ktowntennesseedem]

17. Your probably right.

Common sense (assuming that Mr. or Ms. Average American still has any) would make one think they would never get away with such a terrible ploy. Its just that many times before I've said they would never get away with whatever dirty trick they were playing at the time, and damned if they didn't go right ahead and get away with it.

I just don't think I can handle any of KKKarl's October surprises. Even if the kool-aide has worn off and most Americans don't fall for it this time, I don't think I can handle an attempted surprise.

Me and my damned impatience and pessimism! Nov. 7 can't get here fast enough!

[3waygeek]

16. They don't need Iran to raise prices...

Here in the northeast suburbs of Atlanta, gas prices went up by 11 cents Friday.

[calico1]

18. And don't forget...

low taxes too! :eyes:

[Poppyseedman]

6. You know it's going to be bad when a RW like Fred is calling for

a democratic shock and awe on election day.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[brentspeak]

8. It will be bad for US, the Democrats, unless we keep working for

our Democratic candidates through Election Day.

[DeepModem Mom]

9. That passage is scary as hell --

"The problem here is that national security isn't the leading campaign issue. And saying it should be won't make it so. What's needed is an event--a big event--to crystallize the issue in a way that highlights Republican strength and Democratic weakness."

[grasswire]

12. another Pearl Harbor? Is that what Fred wants?

This statement is just outrageous. It ought to be the focus of a DNC advertisement. Find a really ugly photo of Barnes and use it with his statement.

[datavg]

13. Actually...

...what I think is coming is a really bad, long overdue recession.

We've had growth for a comparatively long time. Public debt and deficit levels are at all time highs, and we're starting to see wage inflation in places like Los Angeles and San Diego.

The recession at the beginning of this decade was cut short due to Greenspan's pump priming, brought on by 9/11. I'm no Ph.D. in Economics but any fool knows that cutting short waves in the business cycle like that has to have some kind of long term effect on how the rest of the waves in the cycle play out.

A good friend of ours is a very well off financial planner whose husband works for the city. She plays the markets and is basically semi-retired. Every time we see her she has an article from the WSJ or Barrons or some other financial rag about the debt bubble and the big bust and the whole Baby Boomer apocalyptic thing that's around the corner. She and her cohorts are screaming like canaries in a cage while the media keeps telling us there's nothing wrong.

If you're in debt, for God's sake get out as best you can and as soon as you can. One of the local radio personalities did a spot with a 22 year old kid who bought into the real estate mania, has six homes and is ~$2.2M in debt with no way out. He's looking foreclosure straight in the face but I have more of an issue with the institutions that loaned him all that money when they knew damn well knew what he was doing and how risky it was.

My wife and I believe in standard, old fashioned, Depression-era economics. We don't buy houses we can't afford, cars we can't pay cash for or pay off in a short period of time and we also don't engage in risky schemes or pursue short term, risk-laden strategy.

If you work your ass off, don't do anything stupid and keep your wits about you, you're usually gonna be okay.

Words to live by.

[calico1]

19. It's almost like he is begging Republicans

for an October surprise....

[Arugula Latte]

10. This is laughable:

"If politics were fair, Democrats would be in as much trouble as Republicans. And they'd be just as vulnerable. They've been obstructionist, anti-tax-cut, soft on terrorism, and generally obnoxious."

:rofl:

"generally obnoxious" -- that's the Republican playbook right there!

[hijinx87]

11. when the weekly standard says it's over for the rethugs . . . .

it's damn well over. :party:

but it can't be this easy. we're still 3 weeks out . . . .
but what could go wrong?

could we have peaked too early, though?

(sorry. mom raised a worrier)

[datavg]

14. Andrew Grove...

...used to say that only the paranoid survive.

This is the same guy who escaped from Eastern Europe, crawling through barbed wire fences, across streams and dodging bullets to get to the West.

Kiss your mother!

[BeFree]

20. We should win 60 new seats

But as the op says:
"A strong finishing kick for Republicans, minimizing Democratic gains, is possible. They pulled one off brilliantly in President Bush's first midterm election in 2002. But recovery will be harder this time, a lot harder."

I am not going to say something like diebold. I know some of you expect me to say something about dieblod, but I'm not going to say one damn word about diebold.

But, the HAVA strategy? Now that was brilliant.