Three and a half weeks out: some predictions!

[Ediacara]

SENATE

Blue states are Democratic wins, red states are Republican wins, yellow states are independent wins, and purple states are too close to call. States marked with an asterisk are pickups.

1) I think that Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, and Rhode Island are pretty much done deals as all reputable pollsters have been showing the Democratic challengers in big leads for a long time.

2) Missouri and Tennessee are much less certain, but recently the Democratic challengers have an edge in polling so I'm willing to say that they'll go our way. I have thought this about Missouri for a while, but this is the first time I've taken Tennessee out of TCTC.

3) Lamont's campaign seems to have run our of gas. I don't know why, but it may be because Schlesinger's campaign has completely given up and almost everyone supporting Lieberman is actually a Republican. Regardless, if Joe keeps his word, this result is inconsequential for control of the whole body since he and Sanders will count as Democrats.

4) I really want Arizona and I think that a Napolitano landslide could nudge it in our direction, but I am not confident. In Virgina, the race is close, but Allen is still polling ahead of Webb. I don't know why. Allen should be polling in the low single digits, but then again a lot of people are idiots. I think a big push in the DC suburbs and the coast can push this our way, but I am not confident.

Bottom line
I think we'll take the Senate with 51 or 52 seats (including the two independents).

HOUSE

Okay, so no cool map here, the districts are just too small and weirdly shaped.

I think we have a very good chance, based on the NYT ratings, in AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CA-50, CO-04, CO-07, CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, IA-01, IL-06, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, MN-06, NC-11, NH-02, NM-01, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, OH-15, OH-18, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, TX-22, VA-02, WA-08; plus many other surprises. I think we'll end up with about 230 seats in the house, possibly as many as 250 (although that's not very likely).

GOVERNORS

Blue states are Democratic wins, red states are Republican wins, and purple states are too close to call. Light blue states have no election this year, but have Democratic governors, pink states have no election this year, but have Republican governors. States marked with an asterisk are pickups.

1) I am fairly confident that we'll hang on in Iowa, and pickup in Minnesota as Hatch seems to have pulled ahead of Pawlenty in most recent polls (although this could go back to TCTC). Rhode Island also looks like a pickup, especially with a big Whitehouse tide in the senate race.

2) I put Florida in the TCTC column as the GOP candidate, Charlie Crist, has recently been outed. I have no idea if this will actually matter, and as a gay man, it bothers me that it could hurt a candidate. On the other hand, Republicans are hardly friendly to gay rights, so I guess he may reap what he has sown.

3) Alaska I keep as a TCTC solely because Knowles is popular, and with a population so small, a change of just a few thousand could mean a big win or a big loss.

Bottom line
We have an advantage of about 30 to 20.

[Stinky The Clown]

1. I like your analysis ......

..... my only big difference is that I may be a bit more bullish on Webb than you are. Yeah, I know the polls are saying otherwise.

In 04 I was feeling the same way about Kerry getting Virginia, so my Virginia radar is really out of calibration. But I continue to be hopeful.

[Ediacara]

2. Well Kerry won Virginia according to exit polls...

But ya, I think Virginia is very winnable, but I'm bothered by polls showing Allen in the lead, even if it's by a little.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. Its funny .... if any Southern state really wants to be a Dem state .....

.... its Virginia. And the state is continuing to change for the better in that respect. I just keep hoping .......

[Ediacara]

10. I think Arkansas and Florida are similarly on the verge

I hope anyway.

[Catchawave]

5. Wasn't Kilgore ahead of Kaine in Virginia

going into the Gov election last fall by a small skosh ? My fingers are so crossed this will happen again! Oh, and Love the Purple Virginia for the Senate graphic too :)

[Ediacara]

7. I don't remember

I thought the polling was pretty close like this race. Let's hope Webb scores an upset.

[Catchawave]

18. Found some numbers...

from:http: //www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5157

2005 all over again? (+)
by: sndeak
Sat Oct 14, 2006 at 20:21:45 PM EDT



Looks like this one is gonna go right down the the wire, similar to the Kaine vs Kilgore race last year.
I pulled Rasmussen polls from both races at similar dates to see just how they compare.

Kilgore had a similar lead at this point last year. Then he imploded with the Death Penalty ads. I don't expect Allen to do that.

sndeak :: 2005 all over again?
Let's keep reaching out to the Independents, that is what turned the tide last year.
Rasmussen Polls
August 4, 2005 VA: Kilgore 45% Kaine 39% D -6
August 16, 2006 VA: Allen 47% Webb 42% D -5

October 12, 2005 VA: Kilgore 46% Kaine 44% D -2
October 14, 2006 VA: Allen 49% Webbb 46% D -3

I'm still a little concerned with Allen so close to the magical 50%.

[Ediacara]

19. Good to know

There's a new thread in LBN stating that the race is now within 2% (very slight Allen lead).

[tomreedtoon]

20. What do you mean, "Jesus" Crist has been "outed"?

Are you saying he has been outed as a closet homosexual? Or that he's somehow involved with the page scandal? 'Cause I live in Florida, and the only thing I see on the air is his campaign commercials.

Well, to be accurate, his commercials, his Republican Party commercials, and the independent PAC commercials that are stomping the Democratic candidate into the ground as a "tax cut hater."

Said Democratic candidate hasn't even bothered to buy ads. I couldn't name him or her if asked. He or she has promoted no issues. I think he or she is listed as "None of the above" on the ballots.

[tkmorris]

23. Simple

Crist has more money, in part because Jim Davis had to dump a lot of money into a tough primary fight against Rod Smith.

Davis is starting to run ads now though, and they aren't bad either. He won't be able to mention Crist' outing I'm fairly sure, that would be considered as playing dirty pool and rightly so, but with just a few weeks left expect to see a pretty fair barrage of ads.

I still think Crist wins though. Sucks, but I have to be honest.

[tomreedtoon]

24. You still haven't answered; Charlie Crist is outed as WHAT?

I have never heard anyone even whisper that Crist is a homosexual. Technically, it wouldn't matter if he was...as long as he wasn't a hypocrite about it.

I wouldn't even see it as important if he were closeted (that might shock the gays out there) as long as he wasn't gay-bashing himself, or seeking the support of the right-wing churches who make oppression of gays one of their chief tenets.

If pushed, all I could say was that he "looks" like he's gay. His hair is always combed and perfectly in place, he doesn't make a lot of manly gestures, he doesn't seem to move very much at all. But that would be the same as that old Saturday Night Live character "the effeminite heterosexual." Using that as a basis for calling him gay and "outing" him would be pure prejudice.

So again I ask, what exactly are the grounds you have for calling Crist gay, and even if he is, has he been taking public anti-gay stances that makes that a factor? If it's all smoke, this matter should be dropped. Crist should be attacked on other, more relevant grounds, like tax giveaways to his rich buddies or something.

[Beetwasher]

3. While I Agree In Theory On Ohio

And I think Brown will get the most votes, that's one state unfortunately I can't bring myself to count on due to *ahem* "other factors". I'm also concerned in this respect about Missouri.

Good news apparently out of TN though if this report on Kos is true!

TN-Sen: NRSC Throws in the Towel!!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/14/195019/53

That would be a huge, huge win for us.

[Ediacara]

6. Very cool, I hadn't heard about the NRCS quitting TN

I thought that Tenn was one of the states they were supposed to be focusing on... There was some news article about them throwing in the towel ion MT and RI iirc, and trying to thrown a mountain of cash at OH, MO, and TN. But I guess I am remembering wrong?

I am not as worried about Ohio as I was in 2004. Both Strickland and Brown have big leads well outside the MOE, which is something neither Kerry nor Bush had. If things go GOP in Ohio, people will know something's gone wrong.

[AX10]

8. K & R!

[proud patriot]

9. bookmarked

:kick:

[pinto]

11. Thanks DinoBoy. Virginia would be a good win (Senate).

I agree, you'd think Allen would be fading out, and Tennessee, if we win, will be a great national sounding board for a Democratic resurgence across the political spectrum.

[cnlst8]

12. Nice write-up, but ...

I think it still to close to call MO and TN Dem. gains yet. In MO, most polls have it where one candidate is leading the other than less than 3% well within the MoE.
In TN, the latest Rasmussen poll only has Ford by 2% and the SUSA poll has Corker up by 2%. RNC also confirmed they would dump $2 million more in TN. Hopefully, Corker's 10/20-schedule deposition will finally finish him off.

As for VA, I think Webb is catching up, but is not there yet to overtake Allen (latest Ras. poll has him down by 3%). In all the polls for the past few months, except for the M-D polls (where there are a large % of undecided), Allen's votes has hovered between 50%-48% and has yet gone lower than 48%, and until I see that I'm not confident that Webb will win.

As for AZ, I disagree on your assessment. This race has been a real disappointment for me. R-John Kyl’s approval ratings are only around 44%, but D-Jim Pederson can't seem to get his campaign going to his favor. To be honest, he been running a pretty poor campaign up till now. He hasn’t solidified his base yet and stating that he will be “independent” senator doesn’t help. Even his endorsements he gets are unflattering towards him; they’re more like statements against Kyl than for Pederson. The real problem is that he hasn’t given to the people the distinction between him and his opponent. The good news is that he has a lot of money to run his own campaign and still has time to make something happen.

[Ediacara]

16. I agree with you, MO and TN will be close

but the trend I feel (I know not very scientific) is that they'll go our way. Barely.

As for VA and AZ, I think VA is way more winnable than AZ because of the national attention and close polling. Even if Allen wins here, it will be something of a hollow victory for him as he's finished on a national stage and has no chance of becoming President next year.

Arizona is more of a hope against hope that a big Napolitano tide could move this to Pederson in something of a sleeper race. If the polls stay stagnant in the next week or so though... I'll move this to a Kyl victory.

(as an aside, the spell check keeps wanting me to change Napolitano to Neopolitan, which reminds me, I want some ice cream)

[Sancho]

13. The big difference with Crist...

Did he hide the Foley emails? That would cost him the election.

[Ediacara]

14. I had always thought it would be Crist in a walk

Moving this into tossup territory is possibly foolhardy, or possibly prescient, LOL. It may be Davis' "macaca-moment" that could put some badly needed momentum into his campaign. Or it could be a whole lot of nothing.

[Oleladylib]

15. Still,

Anyone else but me want to fast forward the next 3and a half weeks?..So looking forward to Wed. after.

[Ediacara]

17. I feel similar

But I think we actually have the tide with us, unlike 02 and 04 when we only thought we did. I don't want us to become complacent, but this is one of those times when I feel I'd like to revel in victory.

[FogerRox]

21. NJ-Zogby has Menendez up by 11%, 3 wks ago Internals say Bob up by 7%

[AtomicKitten]

22. The same response as Mr. T's in Rocky 3 when he was asked

his prediction for the outcome of his upcoming fight with the Italian Stallion ... Pain.

The GOP is going down hard.

[McCamy Taylor]

25. Good "fair count" analysis. Waiting to see what the new laws and E-vote

do to the "fair count."