Blue Wave, Backlash, or Something in Between?

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by guest poster Katherine Rooney
Blue Wave, Backlash, or Something in Between?

....As polls and pundits point to possible Election Day gains by Democrats, the idea that all the publicity might actually hurt them has been percolating below the surface.

Mason Dixon poll results published Tuesday in The Denver Post show that in Colorado's 5th District Republican Doug Lamborn, who was tied with Democrat Jay Fawcett earlier this month, has jumped to a seven percentage point lead in the open seat contest, and some experts are attributing Lamborn's gain to a backlash against Democrats....(T)he quick bounce back by Lamborn might indicate that the tide is changing for the GOP in some races.

Colorado College political science professor Bob Loevy told The Denver Post...."I think all of this publicity about 'it's going to be a big Democratic year' has caused a lot of Republicans who might otherwise have voted Democratic ... to develop a psychology of 'my party needs me.'"

In a few contentious races nationwide former Democratic leads are being whittled down. For instance, in the Illinois 8th District, incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean (D) was ahead of challenger David McSweeney (R) by 9 percentage points in a Chicago Tribune poll last week, but a new Daily Herald/ABC-7 Chicago poll published this week shows Bean ahead by 3 percentage points....And in Texas's 22nd District -- which was once thought to be a potentially easy win for Democrats after being vacated by scandal-plagued House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R) -- a poll commissioned by the Houston Chronicle shows Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) well positioned to win as a write-in candidate.

It's hard to tell whether shrinking Democratic poll leads in scattered races are a real problem for Democrats or just a bump in the road on their way to a majority in one or both houses of Congress....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/