Reuter / Zogby new Senate polls.

[cnlst8]

http://elections.us.reuters.com/top/news/usnN01194336.html

Reuter / Zogby MoE 4%
CT Lieberman 49%, Lamont 37%, Schlesinger 8%
MD Cardin 49%, Steele 44%
MO McCaskill 46%, Talent 43%
MT Tester 47%, Burns 46%
NJ Menendez 49%, Kean 37%
OH Brown 49%, DeWine 42%
PA Casey 48%, Santorum 40%
RI Whitehouse 53%, Chafee 39%
TN Corker 53%, Ford 43%
VA Webb 45%, Allen 44%

Also :
MD Cardin 50% - Steele 45% Rasmussen
MD Cardin 49% - Steele 43% Baltimore Sun

If these results are accurate, MT tightening up even more and in TN Ford's numbers are disappointing. Nice to see McCaskill and Webbb still in the lead no matter how small. In Pa, this poll has Casey only leading by 8%, this is the smallest lead I seen of all the recent polling, which lead me to question this poll accuracy.

GOTV, please.

[babylonsister]

1. Is the NJ race that far apart? And that should be Kean, Jr.

I see lots of nailbiting in my future.

[TheVirginian]

5. Its not, but Menendez definately has a lead now.

Its been a while since a poll showed him trailing Kean. Democrats who were hesitant about voting for him are coming home. The same thing is happening in Pennsylvania and Montana with Republicans, only it might actually be enough for Burns to defeat Tester.

[MemphisTiger]

2. In TN we have a gay marriage amendment on the ballot that

will bring out the religious conservatives. NOT good for Ford, plus he's made some huge mistakes the last couple of weeks.

[TheVirginian]

3. Its expected for Santorum to tighten the race

a 10-point drop to an 8-point drop isn't enough to question a poll's accuracy.

[Teaser]

4. They're not correct

Zogby has been wacky all year. Toss him aside until he shows he can get races right again.

[TheVirginian]

6. That's a baseless statement.

Zogby is running two polling agencies this year. Zogby Interactive is an experimental way of polling, which has been all over the map, and is using an unproven methodology. Zogby International, which these polls are, uses the traditional method of polling is one of the most trusted pollsters in the business today.

[Teaser]

14. It's a well supported statement.

Zogby International Polls, using the standard methodology, have been out of sync with the body of most polls throughout the course of this year. By a significant amount. Either he's right and everyone else is wrong, or his special sauce has too much spice in it this year.

Zogby's interactive polls appear to be utter shite, and I'm not even going to bother discussing them.

[TheVirginian]

22. Do you have any examples?

Zogby International hasn't released that many polls this cycle, certainly not enough to make such a strong statement as yours.

[IWantAChange]

7. TN numbers indicative of how backward that state is...

the swing back to Corker correlates to the day when the despicable 'race card' ad was first run .... how truly sad a state of affairs in America in 2006 - not 1956.

[Clark2008]

18. I can call us backward, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't.

I live here - you don't.

[MemphisTiger]

26. I agree

[cobaindrain]

8. No way is DeWine and Sanitorium that close

Still the leads are safe with only 4 1/2 days left until election day, but I think both Casey and Brown will win by at least 10 points.

[TheVirginian]

10. Based upon what?

[Deep13]

11. Actually the Ohio # is pretty consistent with others.

A few recent polls put Brown further ahead, but SurveyUSA has always seemed a little rosey to me.

[MattP]

9. Burns

MT is sad to me, I don't care how red a state is how can a state for a guy who says the pres has a "secret plan" to get us out of Iraq and on top of it is corrupt and is batshit crazy.

[SaveElmer]

12. These are very good numbers...

With the exception of Tennessee...

Shows some tightening in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but still good leads there...

If these numbers hold we would pick up 6 seats

Montana, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, Rhode Island, and Ohio...

We have solidifed our leads in NJ and MD...

These are very good numbers!!!

On edit I am not sure what the NJ numbers are...but I do believe Menendez will win

[bluedeminredstate]

13. Is Ford that far behind

Corker or is there hope for him? What kind of machines/ballots do they vote on in TN? I'm surprised by those numbers, I thought the race was closer...
:(

[Clark2008]

19. We have blackboxes, now, sadly

Hart Interactive.

[MemphisTiger]

21. We're on the Die-bold

electronic no privacy machines.

[SouthernBelle82]

25. I vote on paper

We almost got the machine's but the election committee voted it down because it'd be so expensive and unreliable so I'm glad they didn't get them. Corker has been going up and down but I find it very hard to believe from other polls I've seen that Corker is in the 50's now.

[TheVirginian]

23. No, but he's down.

Corker has definately turned a corner.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. theere is nobody named talent running in new jersey's senate

I think you mean Kean Jr.?

[AlCzervik]

16. i saw that too, i just checked the link, it says Menendez over Kean

by 49% to 37%. Maybe Kean's negative ads backfired on him?

[cnlst8]

20. oops mistake,. edit and fixed

[Clark2008]

17. I'm sickened.

I have suddenly developed a visceral hate for my fellow Tennesseans.

[AtomicKitten]

27. Maybe this will cheer you up.

http://americablog.blogspot.com/2006/11/abc-news-rnc-accepts-money-from-army.html

[AtomicKitten]

28. Kos has better numbers on Ford race.

from http://www.dailykos.com/

Republicans aren't as optimistic about this race as I am pessimistic. Rich Lowry talks about the latest GOP internals:

In MO, Talent has now had two good nights in a row. He's up by two in the three-day average, up five in the two-day. In NJ, Kean is hanging in there, just down by two in the two-day. In MD, unfortunately, there's no sign yet that it's happening for Steele--he slipped a little from the night before. OH and PA, of course, are gonzo. In TN, Corker is up by one, but the public polls show him with a much bigger lead. In the internals, he continues to have just a slightly better fav/unfav than Ford. In RI--is this good or bad news?--Chafee is right there with Whitehouse, just .1 behind in last night's track. Finally, there's VA, where it's not looking so great. Webb was leading last night, and is leading in the two-day.

So the DSCC shows a six-point Ford lead, the NRSC (or RNC, it's unclear) show a 1-point Corker lead, and the independent outfits show big Corker leads.

When Lowry talks about "last night's track", note that tracking polls generally need three days sampling to have a respectable MoE. So, it's like 150-200 new respondents every day. The individual day MoE's are thus huge. So "last night's track" on the RI race isn't as relevant as the last three days combined. That Lowry got only one day's worth of data is telling. Same with Kean.

[LSK]

24. not too sure about his polls

They show Duckworth with a huge lead and the Duckworth people dispute that with their polling.