Turn It Blue - States Facing A Blue Whiplash Nov. 7

[Infinite Hope]

States facing drastic changes:
Minnesota will easily elect Amy Klobuchar for U.S. Senate and has three hotly contested congressional races in Tim Walz, Patty Wetterling, and Tim Walz which could leave Democrats with a 7-1 margin in Minnesota's congressional seats. The governorship is looking like the Democrat will win for the first time since the mid-1980's. State House and Senate races have the strongeset candidates in years. "Ground Zero" is considered to be the area between Brainerd and Bemidji where many races in Republican-held districts are hotly contested. The face of these races may very well be one John Ward from District 12A. The Senate race may be symbolized by Terry Sluss of District 12 and Mary Olson of District 4. (Remember Paul Koering, the gay Republican running for reelection to Minnesota State Senate from District 12). Minnesota is heading for a Drastic Blue Whiplash on every level.

Ohio is another state that will be taking a drastic snap to the Blue side in the governorship, other state offices and, as we well know, multiple congressional seats as well as the U.S. Senate seat.

New York will be easily electing a Democratic governor, more Democrats in state offices, and perhaps 1-2 congressional seats.

Others completing a change of color:
North Carolina is already controlled on the state level by Democrats, but it's looking like 2 Congressional seats will be picked up and as many as 3 with a wave.

Virginia could very well complete their shift with Webb's win and there are at least 2-3 House Seats with a strong chance of turning Blue.

Montana has been turning Blue on the state level and could make a strong leap toward Blue with the Senate race.

To a lesser extent:
Kansas has had a Democratic Revolution of sorts with 9 Republicans changing parties and contesting long-time Republicans in power.

[Lindacooks]

1. Oh please oh please. I want my state back.

And Minnesota hasn't had a democratic governor in years because strong Independent and Green candidates split the vote.

[opihimoimoi]

2. The BLUE TSUNAMI???? Is it coming??? I sure hope so....

[Infinite Hope]

3. I still insist they need to form the DFL-Green Party

and eliminate some of that issue.

[Ignacio Upton]

4. Well Ventura won in 1998

He didn't split the vote with the Democratic candidate.

[Infinite Hope]

5. He took a large portion of it...

He took nearly equally from both parties and took new voters.

[Lindacooks]

10. Yeah, that was an anomaly.

Tons of people who wouldn't have voted otherwise voted for Ventura - that's what tipped the balance. Mostly young kids who didn't know any better.

[Lexingtonian]

6. there's a lot more coming

Up here in New England, a small Blue wave will tip the state House in Maine back to full Democratic control, and with that to full D control of state government.

In New Hampshire, the D governor will be reelected easily and most of the effort has gone in winning D control of the state Senate (a 16R-8D split now). The state House in Concord is humongous, 400 members with a ~250R-150D split. The rumor mill says there's a good chance of state Senate takeover and no one's sure about the House. The House has been mostly a wingnuts-running-amok abomination the past few years.

The story in New York State is about the 5 seats or so Democrats need to take control of the state Senate, making for a full sweep. It's not clear whether there has been a sufficient effort by the state Party to achieve that, though it could happen simply by the effect of the expected voter wave. Problem is, the arrangement of things in Albany is so corrupted and dysfunctional that a full Democratic takeover probably means Republican corruption gets cleared out and their own doesn't, and that's just begging for a voter revolt and a Republican wave statewide in '08.

New is good from Pennsylvania about gains in both chambers of their legislature, but no one wants to talk numbers or specifics. Ohio...no legislature chamber takeovers in 2006, if I understand what people are saying, but that may come in reach in 2008.

The Indiana state House has a small Republican margin. It looks like the state may hand control of it to Democrats in order to rein in Mitch Daniels more. Michigan...it seems no one's impressed with the MDP's efforts to retake the state legislature.

Iowa could well have Democratic majorities in both chambers and a Democratic governor in January. Talk of gains in their legislatures is also going on in Nebraska, Missouri, and South Dakota. Probably Kansas, too. It looks like Democrats could well take the majority in the Oregon state House, making things there all Democratic controlled.

The state that could flip almost fully from Red to Blue dramatically is Nevada. The governor race is tipping D as Gibbons implodes in scandals. D's have a nice majority in their state House, which leaves the 12R-9D state Senate. Nevada still has a lot of bad Red State criminal laws on the books and bad behavior in lower tiers of state government; I'd love to see that change.

[Infinite Hope]

7. Great post, Lexingtonian!

I should add that in Minnesota the margin they need in the House is a mere 2 seats. They're expected to net gain 4-5 seats. They're expected to strengthen their numbers slightly in the Senate, perhaps 2-3 seats.

[Odin2005]

8. I want to see Bachmann's, Kennedy's and Pawlenty's asses kicked.

[Infinite Hope]

9. And Gutknecht and Kline :) n/t

[TheVirginian]

11. 3 in NC? 2-3 in VA? Where?

NC-11, sure. NC-8 is a stretch, but its possible. What else?

VA-02, sure. VA-11 is a large stretch. What else are you counting? VA-10 and VA-05 are locked down.

[Infinite Hope]

12. Some internal polls have...

Kissell ahead in NC-8. Also NC-5 went for Foxx last year with only 55% in a district where Bush took 10+% more than that. She's far from popular and is only a 1-term member. She's made comments/gaffes about Katrina and how the people deserved it, among other gaffes and now refuses to debate unless there is no media there. It's causing a firestorm in the district that was already upset at her edgy comments and refusal to speak to and be accountable to voters. Many in the area believe if turnout is higher than normal among Democrats, that seat could fall as well.

As for Virginia, there's a race in Hampton Roads that's believed to be a possible pickup and there was another one which I believe was in Southern Virginia. I said 2-3 instead of 2 because I knew of at least two and realized the possibility of third since I haven't been following VA House races closely.

[TheVirginian]

13. Hampton Roads is VA-02. That's the only close race in VA.