RCP Now Predicts DEM Control of Senate

[Laelth]

Yesterday, Skinner gave us a link to some video from CNN in which Jeff Greenfield was reporting that Stuart Rothenberg was predicting that we would control the Senate after the Nov. 7 election. Here's the link to that thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x2174

Just looking around for myself, hardly able to believe that Rothenberg might be right, I went to RCP (Real Clear Politics) to see what they were predicting at this point. If you're not aware, RCP has fairly conservative management, but (imho) they do a fair job of averaging out polls across the political spectrum. I could hardly believe what I found there. The current RCP averages predict a 51 DEM senate. See here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/senate.html

The last time I had this feeling was in 1992 when Clinton was elected. Every once in a while I am particularly proud to be an American and thankful that the American people are, once again, paying attention to what the right wing is doing to our country. Looks like they're finally seeing the light, once again.

Fingers crossed, knocking on wood, etc ...

:dem:

-Laelth

[Kagemusha]

1. Let me guess, they count Lieb?

Um yeah, whatever. We'll see.

[speedoo]

2. Please let it be so.

There is so much work to be done to correct the wrongs of the last six years. Getting back both houses of congress would be a great first step.

[Syrinx]

3. from Rothenberg's blog...

"While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate."

"Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years."

"With Republican (Gubernatorial) seats like Idaho, Alaska, and Nevada in play for state-specific reasons, and Minnesota vulnerable to a Democratic wave, the ceiling for possible Democratic gains is high. We have narrowed our earlier projection from Democratic gains of 6-10 to 7-9."

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/

[speedoo]

5. The last quote refers to governorships. nt

[Syrinx]

6. thanks

I'll fix that.

[Guaranteed]

4. Yup, +6 if Tester, McCaskill and Webb win.

They show Ford losing.

[caledesi]

7. Wow! Thanks Lae. Now I can sleep w/ a smile. Can't wait until

November 7th!

:popcorn:

:popcorn:

:popcorn:

:popcorn:

:popcorn:

:popcorn:

[Laelth]

8. My pleasure.

n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[Infinite Hope]

9. Excellent! n/t

[Hav]

10. .

After I got really interested in American politics, I always had to see the Repubs win. One election night more depressing than the other.
It would be so great to see something like a small landslide for the Dems.

[Laelth]

11. I hear ya.

It's been that way for most of my sentient, political life. In fact, now that I think about it, 1992 was about the only election that gave me any hope. When Clinton was re-elected in 1996, the Repukes were in full, Gingrich nastiness mode and controlled the House. Clinton couldn't get much done, but it was better him than Dole. Other than that, it has been a bleak 25 years for liberals.

-Laelth

[never_get_over_it]

12. All of these counts assume LIEberman

will caucus with the Dems - and I for one will believe it when I see it. I sure hope the voters of CT understand that - and do the only thing that will ASSURE a Senator caucusing with the Dems and VOTE FOR LAMONT.....

[speedoo]

13. If LIEberman wins, we'll deal with him later.

My preference would be to take away about 5 more Senate seats in 08 and then tell LIEberman to take his sorry act and stick it up his anus.

[never_get_over_it]

14. Well good then lets hope Justice Stevens can hold

on until we work through your '08 plan.... point of my post is anyone in CT that wants a Dem controlled Sentate only has ONE choice and that is Ned Lamont.