Ten Best Incumbent Campaigns; Ten Worst Incumbent Campaigns

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza

....The choices are informed by an informal poll of consultants, campaign operatives and other political junkies.....

Top 10 Campaigns Run by Incumbents (listed alphabetically):

Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.): Bean started the cycle as Republicans' top target. After all, President Bush carried the 8th District by twelve points in 2004, and even Democrats admitted that Bean's victory that year had much more to do with the ineptitude of former Rep. Phil Crane (R) than Bean's own appeal. Fast forward two years. Bean has voted in the House with a keen eye on avoiding giving Republicans any campaign ammunition. She has also proven a successful fundraiser -- a must in this district covered by the costly Chicago media market. Bean isn't out of the woods yet, but she is in much better shape than many neutral observers assumed she might be just two years ago.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.): Yes, we know that Clinton's competition isn't exactly stellar. But we also know that the reason no big name Republican would undertake a race against her is because she worked hard over the first five years of her Senate term to insulate herself. How? By reaching across the aisle to work with Republicans on legislation and also raising tens of millions of dollars to scare away any serious challenge. By clearing her path to reelection, Clinton spent 2006 broadening her donor base and campaign infrastructure for her expected 2008 White House bid. She is not to be underestimated.

Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D-Mich.): Granholm started the cycle as one of the most targeted governors in the country. Republican hopes rose even higher when businessman Dick DeVos showed a willingness to spend heavily from his own pocket to finance a slew of statewide television ads that moved him into a mid-single digit lead over the Democratic incumbent heading into the summer. Despite protestations from within the party, Granholm held her campaign fire for months. When she let fly, she did so with a series of ads that highlighted her efforts to bring jobs to the state while knocking DeVos for allegedly moving jobs to China. What once looked like a toss-up now tilts slightly but significantly in her favor.

Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas): Even in a cycle where the national landscape heavily favors Democrats, Edwards should be in more trouble than he currently finds himself. He has President Bush as a constituent and his central Texas district went for the president with 70 percent in 2004. Republicans were initially high on GOP nominee Van Taylor thanks to his wealth and military credentials, but the party watched as Edwards quickly discredited the Republican as a carpet-bagger. This isn't Edwards's first rodeo. His campaign skills were also on display in 2004 when he was the lone Democratic incumbent targeted by the Texas "re-redistricting" plan to survive....

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Ten Worst Campaigns Run by Incumbents (Listed Alphabetically):

Sen. George Allen (R): No candidate was nominated for worst-run campaign by more members of our informal panel than Allen. At the start of this election, the Virginia senator was widely seen as one of the rising stars in the Republican Party -- an unflappable, optimistic voice evoking images of former President Ronald Reagan. But starting in early August with Allen's "macaca" moment, his campaign has been caught flatfooted time and time again. The initial reaction by the Allen campaign -- that he had nothing to apologize for -- was tone deaf, and his multiple subsequent apologies kept the story in the news for weeks. Allen has struggled to regain momentum in the race ever since. He may survive on Tuesday, but his mistakes in this race have likely cost him a run for president in 2008.

Sen. Conrad Burns (R): Burns's comeback over the last few weeks has made some Republicans forget what a terrible campaign he ran for most of this cycle. Burns sat back while national Democrats bashed him for months on his alleged ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff -- allowing the opposition to define the terms of the debate. Burns also repeatedly made impolitic comments about any number of constituent groups; the most high-profile being his excoriation of a group of firefighters over their efforts at a fire near Billings. Burns's high-profile gaffes ensured that the race was a referendum on his service not on state Sen. Jon Tester's (D) record in the legislature.

Rep. Chris Chocola (R-Ind.): Chocola's poor campaign actually began at the end of last cycle when he refused to go negative against Democrat Joe Donnelly -- choosing instead to run positive ads touting his own accomplishments. As a result, Donnelly ended the 2004 contest with high name identification and strong favorable ratings -- a nice starting point for the 2006 rematch. Even so, Chocola would not likely be in the dire straits he currently finds himself had he been willing to exploit his financial advantage over Donnelly earlier this year. At the end of June, Chocola had $1.5 million in the bank compared with $445,000 for Donnelly. Chocola never took advantage of that money gap and allowed Donnelly to rapidly catch him on the financial front. The result? Chocola is one of the most endangered incumbents in the country.

Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fla.): If Harris's ill-fated bid for the Senate was made into a work of fiction, most readers would find it too fanciful to be believed. Multiple hirings and firings of top-level campaign staff, a pledge to put $10 million of her own money into the campaign that never materialized, heavy reliance on a spiritual adviser for campaign guidance.... The list goes on and on. As soon as Harris announced for this race, Republicans lost any chance of beating Sen. Bill Nelson (D). And her lack of competitiveness has allowed national Democrats to avoid spending a dime in the costly state of Florida -- allowing them to spend resources on opportunities elsewhere....

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