Carnage on Capitol Hill: Iraq fatally wounds RepublicansBy Rupert Cornwell in Washington
Published: 05 November 2006
In this stunningly beautiful American autumn of 2006, there is the whiff of fin de régime in the air - or rather of the end of two regimes. On Tuesday the United States votes in the most closely fought, and closely followed, mid-term elections in memory. Not only could they signify the end of Republican dominance on Capitol Hill which, apart from a hiatus in the Senate in 2001 and 2002, has lasted without interruption since Newt Gingrich and his shock troops over-ran both House and Senate in 1994, forcing Bill Clinton to protest forlornly that the Presidency was "still relevant". The other probable casualty is the era of George W Bush.
No, the name of the 44th President does not appear on any ballot this week, and even when the results are in, he will still be spending another 26 months and 12 days in the White House. Yet at these mid-terms, the 80 million or so Americans expected to vote will be doing far more than electing a new House of Representatives and re-assigning a third of the 100 seats in the Senate. They will be conducting a referendum on a presidency that is a subject of keen debate among historians over whether it is merely one of the worst, or the very worst, in the country's history.
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This was always going to be a noxious political year for Republicans. There is the general feeling that they have been around too long, that they have been irredeemably corrupted by power. They have been buffeted by lobbying and sex scandals. They are victims of the abysmal standing of a Congress they control but of which just 25 per cent of Americans approve. But the biggest cross they bear is their own President and his disastrous war in Iraq. This time around, not only has Mr Bush no coat-tails. He barely has a coat. Defeat, to borrow another presidential metaphor, would leave him not so much a lame duck as a dead duck.
Less than 48 hours before the vote, every sign is that his party is heading for precisely that.
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The oldest rule of elections is that oppositions don't win them, governments lose them. And with its scandals, with its failure to tackle the real problems facing the country, above all with its calamitous adventure in Iraq, the Bush administration and its complaisant stooges in the majority on Capitol Hill have between them done enough to lose half a dozen elections.