1999 war games: Iraq "would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops"

[ProSense]

1999 war games foresaw problems in Iraq

By JOHN HEILPRIN, Associated Press Writer 2 hours, 45 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.

In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.

The documents came to light Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University's National Security Archive, an independent research institute and library.

"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."

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[John Q. Citizen]

1. A failed state was the bush plan all along. bush went for a two fer.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. Wasn't This Anthony Zinni's Exercise?

I believe that this was run at Clinton's request - this is why the adults decided to not invade Iraq.

[Make7]

3. Yes; here's the link to the National Security Archives' report:

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB207/index.htm

[MannyGoldstein]

4. This is Somewhat Dated News

Zinni was talking about this several months ago - Clinton asked him to look at this, and Zinni reported back that it wouldn't work. The Rethugs, at the time (several months ago), tried to spin this as "see, even Zinni wanted to attack Iraq - but Clinton was too chicken". Unbelievable, these Rethugs.

[ProSense]

5. None of this is new, except the release of the Documents. What is mind boggling

is that people know it can't work, but refuse to say definitively that we need to get out. It's all been in the news before:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2558484&mesg_id=2558484

[Make7]

6. Yes, it is. Zinni spoke publicly about 'Desert Crossing' at UCLA in 2004.

But as far as I know, this information on the 'National Security Archive' site is the first release by the government of any of the documentation related to this particular scenario.

Spin is pretty much all they ever do, but at least now there is a documentary record that can be pointed to in order to demonstrate how incorrect that spin actually is.

- Make7

[ProSense]

7. Sniper Attacks Adding to Peril of U.S. Troops

Sniper Attacks Adding to Peril of U.S. Troops

Sgt. Jesse E. Leach of the Marines assisted Lance Cpl. Juan Valdez-Castillo, who was shot by a sniper in the town of Karma. He survived.

By C. J. CHIVERS
Published: November 4, 2006

KARMA, Iraq, Nov. 3 — The bullet passed through Lance Cpl. Juan Valdez-Castillo as his Marine patrol moved down a muddy urban lane. It was a single shot. The lance corporal fell against a wall, tried to stand and fell again.

His squad leader, Sgt. Jesse E. Leach, faced where the shot had come from, raised his rifle and grenade launcher and quickly stepped between the sniper and the bloodied marine. He walked backward, scanning, ready to fire.

Shielding the marine with his own thick body, he grabbed the corporal by a strap and dragged him across a muddy road to a line of tall reeds, where they were concealed. He put down his weapon, shouted orders and cut open the lance corporal’s uniform, exposing a bubbling wound.

Lance Corporal Valdez-Castillo, shot through the right arm and torso, was saved. But the patrol was temporarily stuck. The marines were engaged in the task of calling for a casualty evacuation while staring down their barrels at dozens of windows that faced them, as if waiting for a ghost’s next move.

This sequence on Tuesday here in Anbar Province captured in a matter of seconds an expanding threat in the war in Iraq. In recent months, military officers and enlisted marines say, the insurgents have been using snipers more frequently and with greater effect, disrupting the military’s operations and fueling a climate of frustration and quiet rage.

Across Iraq, the threat has become serious enough that in late October the military held an internal conference about it, sharing the experiences of combat troops and discussing tactics to counter it. There has been no ready fix.

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[NoAmericanTaliban]

8. CNN link - too bad the neo-cons knew better

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/11/04/war.games.ap/index.html