Is Tennessee continuing to trend toward Republicans? Really?

[Clark2008]

Poll after poll shows a Democratic collapse of nearly epic proportions in the race for US Senate between Harold Ford Jr., (D-Memphis), and Bob KKKorker, (R-Nasal-wimp).

Over the past few months, I've had such high hopes that our people had finally overcome the conservative media Juggernaut that we have in this state.

In fact, reports on early voting say that the Democrats have out-voted the Republicans by 18 percent:

Using the Kerry figures above, Democrats have an early voting turnout advantage over Republicans of around 18%. Averaging all the methods together, we can estimate that early voting turnout among Democrats was up around 15% higher than Republican levels. Certainly, that is not good news for the GOP GOTV machine - as it begins to ramp up its infamous 72-hour program. The GOP will need to get people to the polls on election day in order to make up turnout ground - a harder proposition than reminding voters they could vote anytime during the 14-day early voting period.

Clearly, Ford and the Democrats won the battle of getting their folks to the polls early. An 18% advantage is pretty impressive and bodes very well for the Congressman and his campaign.

(And this is from Republican blogger, Adam Groves): http://www.tnpoliticsblog.com/2006/11/analysis_early_vo...

I know it's not over until Candy Crowley sings, but the national polls show gloom and doom for Tennesseans. And, it would be gloom for all of Tennessee because, what those voting for KKKorker don't seem to understand is, they're hurting themselves.

If they make less than $200,000, their nasal-sounding, rubber-stamping wimp, KKKorker, will be either stymied in a Democratic Congress OR will do nothing but rubber-stamp Bush's agenda, which will, in turn be a disaster for this state. Tennessee wages are already low compared with national averages and our educational system is a joke (excluding individual school systems in the larger cities, which do well - thankfully my son attends school in a larger city). KKKorker isn't going to change any of that - he'll continue to cut taxes on the wealthy, leaving Tennessee's poor and middle class left to either pay more in state in local taxes per income and/or leaving us to pay more in unfunded mandates.

It looks like this state, after suffering through the financial stagnation of a Republican governor for eight years before finally voting in a good Democrat in Phil Bredesen, who has changed things completely around, hasn't learned its lesson about which party is, in actuality, the more fiscally prudent: the Democratic Party.

I would implore anyone on this board with any connection to AAR or any other liberal programming to PLEASE, PLEASE come into Tennessee outside of Memphis. Nashville is ripe, and even the CITY of Knoxville votes blue (it doesn't look so on the maps because the county of Knox votes red, and overshadows us urban dwellers, but I promise Knoxville voted for Bredesen and Kerry and will go Ford). We NEED some alternative media in this state or we're NEVER going to fully understand how much the Republican Party HURTS our state.

There is always the possibility that the polls are entirely wrong: there are any number of groups who lean Democratic: the poor, students and young people, who aren't accessible by phone to participate in a poll. And it's always been noted that East Tennessee, the more Republican end of the state, has always been over-sampled compared with West Tennessee, the more Democratic end of the state.

Could an upset be in the works, or have Tennesseans, sadly, fallen into the same media trap that forced them to give up their Democratic roots in 1994 to that cadaver Bill Frist?

Sorry for the rant: it just hurts to watch the rest of the country waking up and my state, looking for all the world, like a state still stuck sleeping in a Republican nightmare.

[AtomicKitten]

1. this is really disheartening

I've been following Ford's campaign, brilliantly run I might add, and this is heartbreaking to watch from California. Can I do phone bank work here? I did it for Paul Hackett before out-of-state. Please advise if I can help.

[Clark2008]

2. Yes... here's an email I got from the campaign:

To Harold Ford Supporters:

If you can volunteer any time on Election Day, Tuesday November 7th for phoning, canvassing, visibility activites in different sections of Knoxville , and various errands including driving people to the polls, please call the main campaign headquarters at (865) 584-55ll and let them know what time you can volunteer. Ask for Lucia or anyone that is available. For further information, call Dr. Lorraine Hart (Number removed for privacy purposes - please IM me for her number).
Campaign headquarters are at 6408 Papermill. If you can't specify a time right now, just drop in and they will use your talents, again 584-55ll.

Now, this is my local contact info, so they may not have a phone-banking list available electronically, but I'm sure if you called the statewide campaign at: 615-244-6161, they could set you up. The HQ is in Nashville.

If I had to venture a guess, I would request GOTV efforts be targeted in urban areas: Chattanooga, Knoxville, Memphis and Nashville. Surprisingly enough, I would also target Clarksville and the surrounding area because, as we've seen, the military is BEGGING for regime change and Clarksville is home to many who serve in the Fort Campbell Military Reservation in Kentucky (Clarksville is a bedroom community to that military base).

I have to also note, in response to my above post, that I STILL do not see the excitement around Corker. I don't see as many placards, bumper stickers and yard signs for him as I do for Ford and I live in the most conservative of Tennessee's regions.

I just keep hoping that polling info is dead-wrong and is a reflection of so many who don't have landlines.

Edited to remove a personal cell phone number listed in text.

[AtomicKitten]

3. thanks - I'll contact them today and get on it

The HQ can fax me the data. I have a flat-rate long distance line to call on. I'm good at this and will do my very best, and I will put a gun to the head of my friends too.

Corker has the appeal of vinegar douche. He is a moron, and a Bush butt-kissing one at that. Ford deserves this win and has worked harder for it than any politician I have seen in a long time.

Hang in there.

[Clark2008]

4. Thanks.

And even a vinegar douche is cleansing and refreshing, in a sense - Bob Corker can't even claim that much!

(I love your little New Kids head-squishing guy! :hi: )

[still_one]

5. It looks like Tennessee cannot see beyond race because that's what its about

That wonderful RNC commercial associating an African American man with a blond white woman must of really upset the good ole boy club.

This was the state where Martin Luther King was killed

At least Virginia and Missouri look like they may be trying to come out of the dark ages

When Trent Lott was forced to step down as senate majority leader, because at that PIG strom thurmond's 100th birthday, he suggested that we should bring back the good old days of jim crow, demonstrate the feelings that still haunt this country

My appology to pigs for associating them with thrumond

[Clark2008]

6. That's really not true, as much as you want to believe it.

MLK was killed nearly four decades ago - and in the most liberal city in the state - so that point is moot.

The problem is our lousy media and the fact that so many people vote Republican because either said media tells them to or because their whole family always has.

Race is a minor issue - as it would be in any state where a black man is running in a predominately white area - but no more or no less.

Tennessee really isn't all that backward - the problems are our media, not our thoughts on race.

Edited to add: And you're not alone in thinking it and I don't mean to belittle your thinking. The problem WILL be, of course, that Tennessee WILL be thought of as a racist state if Ford loses this one and that saddens me because it's really not true anymore - even though that WILL be the perception. Are there racists here? Sure! You betcha! But there's not any more or any less than in any other state in our union.

[still_one]

8. Most major cities, including Memphis are progressive, I agree,

but is that also true of the rural areas?

Why would the RNC put an ad against Ford, associating him with a blond white woman, if they didn't think it would be effective?

Incidently, there is plenty of racism in the north also, it is just more subtle

[Clark2008]

11. Yeah - it's in the rural areas, sure.

And I edited my post above to include that you're thinking isn't singular, by any means.

The problem really is our lousy statewide media and the fact that, outside of Memphis, there is no alternative to liberal radio. Locally, we have only Limbaugh, Boortz and Hannity, plus a conservatively-moderate local talkshow host. We have NO - NONE, ZILCH, NADA - alternatives (unless you really think that Tammy Bruce is an alternative, and she's not).

But we WILL be thought of as racist: A.) Because we're in the South and, despite years and years and years of progression, the nation still considers all of the South racist, even though it's not any more or any less so and B.) Because of that ad.

That ad may play in some of the rural areas where they simply don't know any better, but most people in the urban areas, thought that ad was simply stupid.

I also found this for you:

For the heated Senate race between Harold Ford Junior and Bob Corker, Yacoubian says it comes down to a statewide fight.

"Harold Ford needs sixty-percent in Shelby County and needs to come up with a 60,000 vote surplus. If he can do that, he can lose in the rest of the 94 counties by one or one and a half percent. He could have a bare majority. If he doesn't put in a huge surplus here, then he has to do better in the 90 counties where he has never run before."

http://www.wreg.com/Global/story.asp?S=5632423">Numbers Show How Many Early Voters Headed to the Polls

So, despite the ad playing well in the rural areas, Ford still has a chance by simply besting Corker in the urban areas.

[still_one]

13. I appreciate the insight and the link

The polls I have seen today show the gap narrowing to about 5 or 6 points, so maybe you are right, this can still be pulled out

[annabanana]

9. True or not. . That's what America is seeing...

And that may be what's written about Tennessee when histories of this election are recounted.

(I personally think the polling is whack)

[still_one]

10. The polls I am looking at do show some narrowing of the gap

so if there is a large voter turnout who really knows

[Clark2008]

14. Can you post those?

I have inside information that internal polls for both Corker and Ford show that it's still neck-and-neck despite what media polls indicate.

Do you have some media polls that show this narrowing of the gap?

I'm thinking some polls were just whacked - either because Dems weren't at home to answer the phone and take the poll, or because of some screwed up methodology or because many groups - such as the poor and young people - simply don't have landlines.

In any case, on the ground, it seems MUCH closer than a 10- to 8-point lead by Corker.

[still_one]

15. This site does not rely on just one poll

but uses the last five. I believe that is to try and eliminate a bad sampling

http://www.pollster.com/polls/?state=TN&race=senate_race

In reality, it is all about turnout

I support your efforts all the way

[Clark2008]

18. Those Rasmussen polls are a bit odd, don't you think?

On Oct. 30, Corker was only two points ahead - well within the margin of error - at 49 to 47 percent and then, BOOM, just three days later he was up by eight points?

I'm calling BULLSHIT on that poll. There was absolutely NOTHING that happened between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 to cause Ford to drop that much in the polls - no live boys or dead girls, so to speak. I'm thinking an oversampling of conservative East Tennessee occurred.

It's just not plausible to the logical mind.

Of course, we know from John Dean's book, that conservatives ARE NOT logical, but, still, some sampling seems to be off for such an occurance in three short days.

[still_one]

21. The reality is that it is all about turnout

The only real poll that means anything is on Tuesday

Good luck to all of us

[SouthernBelle82]

29. That's what I'm seeing too

Only the big media polls like CNN and Mason Dixon really are the only one's who have Corker a head by any lead. All the other polls that are state and whatnot are showing them still pretty neck and neck.

[Clark2008]

12. Yes - and that's what I was commenting to.

It's not really true, but that is EXACTLY what the rest of the nation is seeing and thinks.

And that saddens me because I know better. :(

[SouthernBelle82]

28. And also don't forget

amendment one which is anti-gay nonsense. I was very surprised and caught off guard just a little bit when one of my church's preachers did a sermon on "what God wants for marriage" and he urged everyone to vote "yes" on it. Ugh. I was so disgusted while people are dying in Iraq (including a members grandson is now stationed there!) here we are talking about something that won't change a thing with Tennessee law! I was so disgusted!

[Clark2008]

7. More from the NY Times:

The final days of what may be the most captivating Senate race in the nation are a dizzying spectacle. The airwaves are ablur with hostile political advertisements. The candidates are wired and immersed, careering around the state, working rooms, doing the college football tailgate scene (as both did on Saturday before a University of Tennessee-Louisiana State University game in Knoxville) or bunkering in TV studios.

There are border-to-border boom mikes, international press throngs and a political celebrity cavalry: Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois, is scheduled to stump for Mr. Ford on Sunday; Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, is penciled in Sunday and Monday for Mr. Corker; Laura Bush was in Tennessee last Tuesday for Mr. Corker.

Races in Missouri or Virginia — or some surprise elsewhere — may well determine whether the Senate swings to Democratic from Republican control. But there is something about Tennessee that has invited immense attention. The Senate race here packs historic potential — Mr. Ford could become the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction, and the Republicans could lose the seat now held by the Senate majority leader, Bill Frist. And the race has prompted charges of distortion, mudslinging and subtle racism.

The prevailing view among some Tennesseans is that the attention is flattering, and in many cases, welcome. “We feel like we’re living in the right state at the right time right now,” said Betty Robinson, a Red Cross volunteer from Memphis. “The eyes of the country are on us, it seems. It makes us proud.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/05/us/politics/05diary.html?_r=1&oref=slogin">Star Power to Blood Sport, Tennessee Senate Race Has It

[Totally Committed]

16. That's too bad... We really need this seat.

But, as Harry Truman said:

"Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time."

I hope this all turns around on election day for you and for the Party's sake.

TC

[Clark2008]

17. That would be true, except that in Tennessee, even most

Democrats aren't overly liberal.

It's just the way it is, so Ford "acting" like a Republican on certain issues (and he doesn't act like one on about 85 percent of them) is just the way Democrats "are" down here.

It's because a lot of people can't separate "support for the troops" from having a real national security policy.

That is why I would suspect that our Wes Clark would have carried the state in 2004, had he won the primaries.

[Totally Committed]

20. I don't know if this is just sad or simply tragic for you and your state:

It's just the way it is, so Ford "acting" like a Republican on certain issues (and he doesn't act like one on about 85 percent of them) is just the way Democrats "are" down here.

But, having made phone calls for Clark in the primaries to TN, I can attest definitely to what you're saying. I never had such conversations with "Democratic" voters in my life. But, the fact remains that when you have a choice between A and B, and the only perceiveable difference is the "D" or the "R" after the name, especially in a state as Right-leaning as yours, they will take the real R, not the more-unknown, untried, and "D" other. I think this should have been acknowledged, and some of the more populist differences pointed up more effectively. He at least would have presented some choice at that point. But, I think this race will change before Tuesday, and that Ford still has a chance.

He has to have something going for him, other than the "D" if someone like you can still support him, although I swear I don't know what it is. I will wish you all the best of luck come Tuesday.

TC

[Clark2008]

22. It's our media - and, to some degree - the religosity here.

Our media is all conservative to moderately-conservative (save AAR in Memphis) and THEY confuse national security policy as support for our troops on a continual basis. It never occurs to have our media that sending our military off to an unnecessary war ISN'T good foreign policy - we're just supposed to support it since we're The Volunteer State.

And, we're swamped with Southern Baptists. Despite some very liberal folks, it's hard to combat the church on every corner. There's nothing wrong with religion, per se, but now that it's been given the green light to meddle in politics, it's become the 800-pound gorilla in the room.

And P.S. I support him because I know of the 85 percent of the time in which he ISN'T Republican-Lite and because Wes Clark told me to support him. :7

[SouthernBelle82]

31. You got that right

In the part of town where my church is (in Red Bank) there are a good number of churches you pass before you get to mine and than after wards too. And yes even my own church has now gotten involved. We now have two preachers who have signed onto the job (one was the youth minister and the other one was a preacher a long time ago and stopped that and did other things) and today one of the preachers (the former youth minister) did a sermon urging people to vote "yes" on amendment one because God said so in so many words and picking examples. He also proclaimed Jesus was for it too even though he never talked about gay people. He did talk about people marrying but not a single word of gay people in anywhere of the four gospels. All the churches are also violating Matthew 5: 37 which states "Let your yes be your yes and your no be your no. Anything else comes from the evil one." So they're now a part of the evil one while one minute proclaiming "liberty and justice for all" in the pledge and than a minute later turning around and say "well except for you because you're gay." That is hypocrisy and one of the things Jesus really spoke out against. There's a good bit I disagree with Ford on but the issues that are life and death I agree with him on for majority of the part. I agree we have to find a way to get out of Iraq, health care, jobs and protecting our boarders in a real and secure way but not racists. All the other issues I'll worry about later but right now those to me make me support Ford because it's a matter of life and death.

[SouthernBelle82]

30. Yep

As someone who is a hard-core liberal there was only one candidate who I truly 100% supported like I did with John Kerry and that was a guy who was defeated in the primary's. He was a anti-Iraq war Vietnam vet and appeared at anti-war rallies and from me having a conversation with him once through Email and listening to his interviews and reading his blog he appeared to be a true blue democrat and the old school type. Maybe not liberal but a Kennedy type of democrat. :( It's just frustrating sometimes politically being a liberal in a state like Tennessee because while I love living here the politics can get me really depressed.

[spanone]

19. Corker has run a vicious, lying, insidious campaign.

Spent TWO MILLION dollars of his own money plus shitloads of pac money and used the race card constantly. I guess that's the kind of leadership my fellow Tennesseans want in Congress.

Stupid is as stupid votes. After all, this state elected the fucking mental midget Frist.

[Clark2008]

23. In our defense (and not to defend Frist TOO much), Frist WAS

a doctor.

One would hope that a doctor wouldn't be as stupid as Frist is, but, sigh, we were wrong (not that I voted for him. I voted for Sasser - and anyone else who's run against The Cadaver Cat-Killer).

[SouthernBelle82]

32. Don't forget he has also hired

the SBVT liars. I remember reading about that this past summer on the chattanoogan.com website. I think it was when he was still in the primary's.

[KingFlorez]

24. The Republicans dumped more money into this race

Corker wrote himself a check for 2 million. The Republican internals are not showing Corker with that big of a lead. I think Ford still has a chance.

[Clark2008]

25. Mother of God: BREAKING.... Corker - 50, Ford 38

I just found this poll - headline is TODAY:

With a new poll showing Republican Bob Corker's lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. surging to double digits days before Tuesday's election, both U.S. Senate campaigns scrambled Saturday to keep voters engaged and motivated.

The latest Mason-Dixon Tennessee Poll - conducted for The Commercial Appeal in Memphis, the Chattanooga Times-Free Press, MSNBC and McClatchy Newspapers - showed Corker leading Ford 50 percent to 38 percent among 625 likely voters.

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/election/article/0,1406,KNS_630_5119238,00.html">Poll shows double-digit Corker lead(registration required)

Please tell me people in my state aren't this fucking STUPID!

[Ethelk2044]

26. Poll

You have to find out How many republicans were polled to the
percentage of dems polled

[tulip]

27. Rasmussen poll

That pollster tends to lean Republican. Just hope Ford pulls this off.

Rasmussen released this poll yesterday. I think this is closer to reality there.

53% to 45%.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20061104/pl_rasmussen/tennesseesenate20061104_1

[caledesi]

33. Hey, I am not a big Ford supporter, but in TN, unfortunately that is

the way you have to play the game. Hey DUers, if everyone here send Ford $10 (I just did) maybe we can make something happen.

Like I said, not big on Ford, but want a Dem sweep on Tuesday!

edit: important word NOT (forgot)

[Infinite Hope]

34. Money doesn't matter...

this late except to pay lawyers for possible post-election contests. There isn't time to get money to them and still have time to buy ads.

The only thing to do now is for DUers to get up off the computers and go out and volunteer all across the country.