New ABC Polls shows race tightening...

[elizm]

...How convenient. Anyone surprised??? Poll shows Democrats up by only 6 points now.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/PollVault/story?id=2629600&page=1

[rzemanfl]

1. "Path to 9/11" fuck ABC. n/t

[Zangal]

23. Just more incentive to GOTV

nt

[Donkeykick]

2. Just more proof of the conservative MSM!

:wtf:

[acmavm]

3. They're full of s**t. The dems are up up up all over.

After this election, something needs to be done about new media that constantly and consistantly lie to the American people.

And don't anyone say 'free speech'. The act of lying with the intention to defraud or mislead is not 'free speech'.

[Botany]

4. What ever

Republican paper in OH real close .....

Final DIspatch Poll: DEM LANDSLIDE!

Strickland +36 vs. Blackwell
Brown +24 vs. DeWhine
Dann +10 vs Montgomery
Brunner +21 vs. Hartman
Sykes +10 vs Taylor
Cordray +28 O'Brien

[59millionmorons]

5. NEWSWEEK

And Newsweek, NBC and CBS polls have us up 10-14 pts.

[still_one]

6. Its all bullshit. The only poll that counts is on Tuesday

If we have a large turnout, we WIN

It is as simple as that

[Igel]

18. One of the few voices of sanity I've seen recently.

People take statistics--including polls--as though they were gospel. When they're in agreement with the polls. If they're not, there's some methodological flaw.

Problem is, they pretty much all use the same methodology, and build on assumptions the pollsters judge to be likely or plausible. Poll-takers know what they're saying, but many others don't.

10th grade math should have 6 months of probability, statistics, and sampling techniques. (Just like 10th grade English should deal with Grice, relevance, principles of interpretation, and other material from discourse pragmatics.)

[Arugula Latte]

20. Well, that used to be the case that turnout was all.

Back when ballots were paper.

Now it's different scenario completely.

[fuzzyball]

21. Correct...Polls have never won a single election, turnout won them all

So it all boils down to which party has better turn out.
Go out and VOTE EVERYONE!

[LiberalArkie]

7. But when the votes are tallied, and then sent to the Supreme's

the decision will be that the Republicans won. The voting machines had too many errors to be trusted.

[Red Zelda]

8. Lies

MSM does this all the time. Show races "tightening" as election nears.
They do it for ratings, not for truth.
They have no idea what truth is.

[Bitwit1234]

9. Steal the vote

There is not a person in this country, republicans included, who do not know that this country is sick and damn tired of the republicans and want them out.

To try to steal the vote with their electronic voting machines the republicans have to try to bring the polls closer and make the people thing they are so wonderful people still want to put up with their crap. It is not going to happen. They are not going to steal this election. There will be chaos if they do. They people are not going to let them get by with it again. They know who they want in office and they will get them. AND IT '''AIN'T'''' REPUBLICANS.

[Dosaybe]

10. "We have our own polls" "be calm polls/elections/disregard exit polls"

Don't look at those exit polls (don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain."

[elperromagico]

11. When you consider all the gerrymandered seats, six points sounds about right.

I would predict a similar margin in the Senate and gubernatorial races.

[IndianaGreen]

12. They are setting the public up for the fixed election

It will be the likes of Diebold and ES&S that will pick the Republican winner by a close margin, but not too close to trigger a recount. The fix is in!

[jefferson_dem]

13. BULLSHIT POLL! Their sampling methodology is all screwed up.

They oversample Repukes big time so their results are way biased that direction.

In fact, if you look at the demographics, they include more Repukes than Dems (34 / 33) for the first time since June '05. <See below.> This simply does not square with reality! Rasmussen had a report the other day that said the difference between self-identified Democrats and Repukes is the largest they've ever seen - advantage Dems.


901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op.
11/4/06 LV 33 34 30 2 1
11/4/06 RV 35 32 30 2 1
11/4/06 All 33 30 32 3 2
10/22/06 30 28 36 4 2
10/8/06 38 27 31 3 1
9/7/06 33 32 30 3 2
8/6/06 34 27 34 4 1
6/25/06 33 28 35 3 *
5/15/06 34 28 33 4 1
5/11/06 33 30 33 3 1
4/9/06 34 29 34 3 0
3/5/06 32 28 36 3 1
1/26/06 32 27 34 6 *
1/8/06 31 30 34 5 1
12/18/05 33 32 33 2 *
11/2/05 31 27 38 3 1
9/11/05 31 27 34 8 1
9/2/05 32 31 31 5 2
8/28/05 32 29 33 5 1
6/26/05 34 28 32 5 1
6/5/05 30 31 34 4 *

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_110406.htm

****

Here's the Rasmussen analysis. Correct for this partisan bias in the ABC sample and the results would better reflect the reality.

Partisan Trends: Dems Peaking at the Right Time
November 1, 2006
In the final full month before Election 2006, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans has fallen to its lowest level since we began reporting this measure of partisan trends in January 2004. As a result, Democrats have their biggest net advantage of the past two campaign cycles.

In October, just 31.5% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s a startling decline of nearly six percentage points from 37.2% two years ago. It’s also down nearly a full point from last month.

Democrats have also lost a little ground since October 2004. Today, 37.7% identify themselves as Democrats, down a point from 38.7% on the eve of Election 2004.

However, Democrats now have a 6.2 percentage point advantage over the GOP, their largest recorded over the past 34 months. In October 2004, the Democrats advantage was a miniscule 1.5 percentage points.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/October%20Dailies/OctoberPartyAffiliationTrends.htm

[Tom Joad]

14. Are you reading a different article??

not much here for rove to rejoice over...
It only says it is not quite as bad as the worst showing for republicans since 1974.... that's hardly a very encouraging thing for republicans.

From article linked to:
Still, discontent remains impressive. Just 40 percent of Americans approve of George W. Bush's job performance, the lowest for a president heading into a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1950, when his party lost 29 seats in Congress. Ronald Reagan's rating in 1982 was 42 percent, similar to Bush's now; that year the Republicans lost 26 seats.

Among registered voters, 60 percent disapprove of the way the Republican-led Congress is handling its job, 59 percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction and 53 percent say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting. A majority hasn't backed the war in two years.
_____________

[madrchsod]

15. sounds about right

this will not be a blow out that we need to defeat the machines...it`s going to be real close

[Tom Joad]

16. Yes, the sad truth is that some people are still republicans. Don't

blame the pollsters, and it ain't always the Diebold machines either.
We need to still work on changing the way America thinks.
Keep organizing against the wars, for the Bill of Rights, for economic justice.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. For that we need a truth and reconciliatiion

commision where all crimes commited by any member of either party in our name are exposed.

Until that happens, and even then with some Americans, the myth of exceptionalism will comtinue to live

[bigwillq]

17. *They* have to make it interesting.

They still have two full days of stories to sell.

[Gadave]

22. Sick of this crap

I wish this election would come already. I am tired of the "expectation game" that is played every election. How can polls change so much over a couple of days if they are really accurate.

[capi888]

24. POLLs , SMOLLS

When polls are taken, it is directed to certian counties...Republican OR Democratic. I believe most of these polls are driven by the knowledge and the reseach done by various groups, with their party affiliation. They WANT us to believe what THEY want us to believe. In other words they stack the cards...plus...they have a Rove pusher in the background...trying to sway the Repugs to vitory...so let understand they are trying to keep the Dems away from the polls....to think that the Pugs are in...its a BIG FAT GAME...
I also think that the Haggard confession this afternoon will DEFINATELY change some votes in the South with Evangeligal communities...they have been REALLY lied to, while their leader lives in a mansion....Isn't going to sit well...and they will stay home....I hope I am right!!