The Senate Races Already Done

[Bob Geiger]

On Monday, I will be coming out with my final predictions for how the United States Senate will look after America votes on Tuesday. Before I do that, I just want to close the loop on the fact that there were indeed 33 Senate seats up for grabs this year and not just the 10 to 12 you've heard so much about.

While it is undeniably true that the ultimate balance of power in the Senate comes down to a handful of competitive races, you should at least get the names involved with the others and a one-liner for how they'll turn out. Here it is:

California: Incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein will easily hold her seat over little-known Republican Richard Mountjoy.

Delaware: Democrat Thomas Carper will defeat an obscure challenger, Temple University professor Jan Ting.

Florida: Bill Nelson will hold his seat for the Democrats over election-stealing Republican Congresswoman Katherine Harris.

Hawaii: Democrat Daniel Akaka, having survived a tough primary challenge from Ed Case, will cruise to an easy victory over Republican state Rep. Cynthia Thielen.

Indiana: The GOP's venerable Richard Lugar goes unopposed.

Maine: Republican Olympia Snowe will easily defeat Democrat Jean Hay Bright.

Massachusetts: Are you kidding me? Ted Kennedy gets reelected in a tsunami over Republican Ken Chase.

Mississippi: Regrettably, Republican Trent Lott will be returned to the Senate over Democrat Erik Fleming

Nebraska: We may not like DINO (Democrat in Name Only) Ben Nelson, but he will easily best Republican Pete Ricketts.

Nevada: We had high hopes for Jimmy Carter's eldest son, Jack, but when you can go to Carter's campaign web site and have to search forever for any reference to Republican John Ensign's opposition to a minimum wage increase, it's no wonder Carter's candidacy never got traction. Unfortunately, Ensign will retain his seat.

New Mexico: It was never a contest between incumbent Democrat Jeff Bingaman, who will beat Republican Allen McCulloch.

New York: The closest Republican John Spencer has come to Hillary Clinton in the polls is 30 points -- and even that seemed generous.

North Dakota: Kent Conrad is a popular Democrat in a very-red state and will win handily over the GOP's Dwight Grotberg.

Texas: Bush rubber-stamper Kay Hutchison will defeat Barbara Ann Radnofsky.

Utah: Orrin Hatch is the Republican version in Utah of Hillary Clinton in New York -- he ain't losing to Democrat Pete Ashdown.

West Virginia: Incumbent Democrat Robert Byrd will continue his lengthy Senate tenure after knocking off challenger John Raese.

Wisconsin: Democrat Herb Kohl will trounce GOP challenger Robert Gerald Lorge.

Wyoming: In the universe of red states, Wyoming may be second only to Utah, meaning that Democrat Dale Groutage never stood much of a chance against Republican Craig Thomas.

I've left these two for last because they're kind of special cases:

Connecticut: We're all pretty disgusted with Joe Lieberman and there's a lot of speculation about him bolting the party and causing the Democrats major problems if he wins -- that's not how it's going to happen. The same stubbornness that caused him to not accept the will of Connecticut Democrats, will make him adamantly against making us right about what a turncoat he really is.

He may still give us heartburn with his support of Team Bush on the Iraq war, but he will continue to caucus with the Democrats. So whether he or Ned Lamont wins, this Senate seat continues to contribute toward a Democratic majority.

Vermont: When it comes to the balance of power in the Senate, it's all about who you caucus (align yourself) with. Independent Bernie Sanders is more liberal than most Democrats, is enormously popular in Vermont and will destroy Republican Richard Tarrant on Tuesday. This counts effectively as a Democratic hold as Independent Jim Jeffords, who is retiring, also caucused with the Democrats.

So when you add up the 67 Senate seats that were not contested this year, with the expected results detailed above, we are at 47 seats for the Republicans and 40 for Democrats. With 13 races outstanding, you can see that the conventional wisdom that Democrats need to "run the table" on the rest to take control really is true.

I predict the Democrats will do it and will explain how tomorrow.

You can read more from Bob at BobGeiger.com.

[dchill]

1. Thanks, Bob...

for bolstering my information base AND my confidence.

[elperromagico]

2. Ultimately, it comes down to three or four races,

as it does in every election.

We will narrowly retain MD and NJ and definitely pick up PA, OH, and RI (despite claims of a Chafee surge, he's trailing in every poll I've seen but one). We'll likely pick up MT as well (again, there's only one poll I've seen where Burns is close).

The tricky ones are MO, VA, and TN. We only need two of those. TN looks almost gone, but Webb has a damned good chance in VA.

The iffiest states are MO, MT, TN, and VA.

I will say this much: We have a very good chance of winning the Senate this year. I wouldn't have said that in 2004; we had too many vulnerable seats in the South to defend.

[eleny]

3. K&R

[Rose Siding]

4. I'm not so confident about Joe's choice of caucus

Daschle was able to offer Jeffords what he wanted in a cmte chair, and Jeffords hadn't been bankrolled by dems the way Joe has been by repubs. I don't think that money was free, and I think Joe is vindictive, wounded and as likely to switch as not.

[elperromagico]

8. If the Dems have 51 seats (including Sanders and Lieberman),

expect both Republicans and Democrats to be making Joe offers he can't refuse.

[ChiciB1]

9. I Agree & If That Happens... That Just Shows How Those Like

Schumer screwed us!!

[Clarkie1]

12. Lieberman is not a vindictive guy. 0% chance he will caucus with Repubulcans.

His heart is with Democratic ideals, depspite disagreements about the war. He will caucus with Dems to redeem himself in the eyes of his Democratic collegues and friends, as well.

[fujiyama]

14. I'm not as confident

but I hope you're right that he doesn't go caucus with the pukes.

[onenote]

16. I believe Clarkie1 is exactly right on this

[CTLawGuy]

23. no, he just ran against the duly nominated Democratic candidate on account of boredom...

:eyes:

If running against your own party just becuase you lost the primary isn't vindictive, I don't know what is.

What he did will rip this party in two, him and his southern buddies still supporting him.

[AndyTiedye]

27. Where Were Those Democratic Ideals When Loserman Was Voting In **'s Judges?

[senseandsensibility]

5. Interesting!

Thanks for your very clear predictions. Looking forward to the rest.

[ChiciB1]

6. I Already Thanked You... And I Also Made A Mistake.. But

again THANK YOU!!

Welcome to DU all over again!

[bermudat]

7. Lugar ran unopposed?

What about Dean's 50 state strategy? Even the repugnantcans put up someone against Senator Kennedy.

[elperromagico]

10. The 50 state strategy is alive and well in Indiana.

We're likely to pick up several House seats there.

[Hippo_Tron]

15. Dick Lugar is popular even with Democrats in Indiana

And he's distanced himself from Shrub somewhat. Even a major scandal and a Dem would have a tough time taking him down. If there was any seat in this country not to challenge it was this one. Especially since Indiana dems needed to focus their attention on the House races.

[Clarkie1]

11. I believe Tennessee is "probably" a done deal for Corker.

However, I believe are chances of winning Virginia, Missouri, and Montana are very good. If we win those, we win the senate!

[FrenchieCat]

13. I wish folks would say that TN is a "Done Deal"......I wish we would

not just go along with polls...as there will be plenty time to write Ford's epithat without doing so before Tuesday! :(

[FrenchieCat]

25. Kicking again.....cause see, Ford ain't do(w)ne yet!

and that's important.

We have to stand behind him until the very end! :patriot:

[Clarkie1]

18. I did not say for certain. I do think resources are better directed

to Missouri and Virginia at this point. Just my opinion, thinking strategically.

[AlCzervik]

17. ok who else is excited about incoming Senator Sanders? I think that is awesome.

[Major Hogwash]

19. Thank you for your work, time, and effort on this election, Bob.

I always enjoy your reports here.

[saracat]

20. self delete. Dupe

[saracat]

21. Where is Arizona ?Where is Pederson now that he is tied with Kyl

and leading in the VBM?

[jillan]

22. Your forgot Arizona

Here's to hoping Jon Kyl is forced to retire!

[Vidar]

24. And Michigan, where Stabenow-D holds a narrow lead.

[Earth_First]

26. Virginia?