Sunday Nite- Here's How We're Looking at Election Central

[chill_wind]

(a near final snapshot of various poll gathering at TPM's E.C.)
Latest Polls
Race Pollster Released Candidates
FL-22 Miami Herald Nov 5 Klein (D) 49.2%, Shaw (R) 39.6%
NY-20 Siena Nov 5 Gillibrand (D) 46%, Sweeney (R) 43%
NM-01 Albuq. Journal Nov 5 Madrid (D) 49%, Wilson (R) 45%
Bush Rasmussen Nov 5 Approve 43%, Disapprove 55%
VA-SEN Rasmussen Nov 5 Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 49%
OH-GOV Columb. Disp. Nov 5 Strickland (D) 67%, Blackwell (R) 31%
OH-SEN Columb. Disp. Nov 5 Brown (D) 62%, DeWine (R) 38%
IA-GOV Des Moines Reg. Nov 5 Culver (D) 52%, Nussle (R) 43%
MI-GOV Det. Free Press Nov 5 Granholm (D) 54%, DeVos (R) 41%
FL-SEN Zogby Nov 5 Nelson (D) 60%, Harris (R) 31%
FL-GOV Zogby Nov 5 Crist (R) 48%, Davis (D) 38%
Bush Wash Post Nov 5 Approve 40%, Disapprove 57%
Congress Wash Post Nov 5 Democrats 51%, Republicans 45%
MI-GOV Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Granholm (D) 52%, DeVos (R) 38%
TN_GOV Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Bredesen (D) 61%, Bryson (R) 26%
MD-GOV Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Ehrlich (R) 45%, O'Malley (D) 45%
AZ-GOV Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Napolitano (D) 61%, Munsil (R) 33%
OH-GOV Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Strickland (D) 56%, Blackwell (R) 37%
PA-GOV Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Rendell (D) 56%, Swann (R) 38%
CA-50 SurveyUSA Nov 5 Bilbray (R) 55%, Busby (D) 41%
CA-48 SurveyUSA Nov 5 Campbell (R) 57%, Young (D) 37%
OK-GOV SurveyUSA Nov 5 Henry (D) 65%, Istook (R) 29%
VA-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Webb (D) 46%, Allen (R) 45%
TN-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Corker (R) 50%, Ford (D) 38%
MT-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Tester (D) 47%, Burns (R) 47%
OH-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Brown (D) 50%, DeWine (R) 44%
MD-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 44%
AZ-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Kyl (R) 49%, Pederson (D) 41%
WA-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Cantwell (D) 54%, McGavick (R) 38%
NJ-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Menendez (D) 48%, Kean (R) 41%
MO-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 McCaskill (D) 46%, Talent (R) 45%
RI-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Chafee (R) 46%, Whitehouse (D) 45%
PA-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Casey (D) 52%, Santorum (R) 39%
MN-GOV Star Tribune Nov 4 Hatch (DFL) 45%, Pawlenty (R) 40%
IA-GOV DesMoines Reg. Nov 4 Culver (D) 52%, Nussle (R) 43%
NJ-SEN Marist Nov 4 Menendez (D) 50%, Kean (R) 42%
NY-26 SurveyUSA Nov 4 Reynolds (R) 50%, Davis (D) 46%
MN-06 SurveyUSA Nov 4 Bachmann (R) 49%, Wetterling (DFL) 42%
NH-02 Concord Mon. Nov 4 Bass (R) 47%, Hodes (D) 46%
Bush Rasmussen Nov 4 Approve 41%, Disapprove 57%
OH-SEN Rasmussen Nov 4 Brown (D) 53%, DeWine (R) 41%
TN-SEN Rasmussen Nov 4 Corker (R) 53%, Ford (D) 45%
MO-SEN Rasmussen Nov 4 McCaskill (D) 49%, Talent (R) 48%
Congress Newsweek Nov 4 Democrats 54%, Repubicans 38%
MT-SEN Mason-Dixon Nov 4 Burns (R) 47%, Tester (D) 47%
AZ-08 AZ Opinion (R) Nov 4 Giffords (D) 50%%, Graf (R) 35%
SD-AL Mason-Dixon Nov 4 Herseth (D) 66%, Whalen (R) 26%
CA-04 SurveyUSA Nov 4 Doolittle (R) 50%, Brown (D) 43%
AZ-GOV SurveyUSA Nov 3 Napolitano (D) 57%, Munsil (R) 38%
AZ-SEN SurveyUSA Nov 3 Kyl (R) 53%, Pederson (D) 40%
TX-GOV SurveyUSA Nov 3 Perry (R) 38%, Bell (D) 22%, Strayhorn (I) 21%, Friedman (I) 17%
IN-09 SurveyUSA Nov 3 Sodrel (R) 46%, Hill (D) 44%
CO-04 SurveyUSA Nov 3 Musgrave (R) 44%, Paccione (D) 43%
OH-06 SurveyUSA Nov 3 Wilson (D) 58%, Blasdel (R) 39%
MD-GOV SurveyUSA Nov 3 O'Malley (D) 48%, Ehrlich (R) 47%
MD-SEN SurveyUSA Nov 3 Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 47%

See More Polls: http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/

[CrazyOrangeCat]

1. Thanks!

[chill_wind]

3. My pleasure!

[Pacifist Patriot]

2. Wah! No one cares about FL-15. And sorry, but 10 pts on FL Gov race?

It's closer than that!

[many a good man]

4. Guess I'll have to go vote on Tuesday

and break that tie in MD!

[The Watchman]

5. note the M-D polls for senate..

those seats were all comfortible ties in the last polls, now the GOP canidates have powered to tie, it can only mean independants are breaking for the incombant and the GOP. its grim news for those of us hoping for a democratic senate... we were at least looking for a 50 50 senate but we could be looking at a 53-47 republican majority.


Be Vigilant.

[chill_wind]

6. Roundup- WAPO, NYT, Cook, AP & More

Here's a quick and handy round-up of Sunday morning predictions:

* Washington Post: "In the battle for the House, Democrats appear almost certain to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority...A three-seat gain is almost assured, but they would have to find the other three seats from four states considered to have tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana."

* Charlie Cook: "It's very hard to imagine how the House majority does not turn over...Let's just say it's 20-35, but that the possibility of this getting bigger, is very real...The bottom line is that it is more possible today than a couple weeks ago that Republicans could hold their losses to just four, or it could end up being the six."

* Associated Press: "A miracle day for us would be 14 seats lost," said Joe Gaylord, who was the chief strategist for Newt Gingrich in 1994 when Republicans swept to power. "A good day would be around minus 20, and a bad day would be over 30."

* New York Times: "Republican Party leaders saying the best outcome they could foresee was losing 12 seats in the House. But they were increasingly steeling themselves for the loss of at least 15 seats...Democrats said they thought they were almost certain to gain four or five seats and still had a shot at the six they need to take control."

from Greg Sargent at
http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/nov/05/prediction_roundup