Senate Predictions?

[liberalpragmatist]

I'm going with the general CW on the House (I don't know enough about all the individual races to forecast that), so I'll go with the expected 20-25 pickups in the House.

For the Senate, I'm predicting the following:

1) Pennsylvania - Democratic Win (+1) - Bob Casey, Jr. over Santorum by 10-15%.

2) Ohio - Democratic Win (+1) - Sherrod Brown over Mike Dewine by 10 points.

3) Rhode Island - Democratic Win (+1) - Sheldon Whitehouse over Lincoln Chafee by 5 points.

4) Virginia - Democratic Win (+1) - Jim Webb over George Allen, by 4 points.

5) Montana - Democratic Win (+1) - Jon Tester over Conrad Burns by 2-3 points (Tester has been leading throughout and with Burns' ethical problems, I think Tester will pull out a win, but it'll be tight. Recall that even Gov. Schweitzer after leading the entire time won by only 3 or 4 points against a Republican hack.)

6) Missouri - Democratic Win (+1) - Claire McCaskill over Jim Talent by 1-2 points. This will go down to the wire and could EASILY go the other way. But the momentum seems to be with Claire right now.

7) Tennessee - Republican Win (+0) - Bob Corker (R) over Harold Ford, Jr. by 5 points. Ford ran a good campaign for Tennessee but the trends are pointing towards a Corker win. A Ford victory isn't out of the question right now, but it's distinctly less likely than a Corker win.

8) Arizona - Republican Win (+0) - Jon Kyl over Jim Pederson by 6 points. This COULD be a surprise, but my guess is that while the race will be closer than many polls indicate, Kyl will still prevail.

9) Maryland - Democratic Win (+0) - Ben Cardin over Michael Steele by 2-3 points. This one's gonna be a lot closer than we had expected because the Steele campaign is the one that seems to have the momentum. But Cardin will win, as it's still a Democratic state in a Democratic year.

10) New Jersey - Democratic Win (+0) - Bob Menendez over Tom Kean, Jr. by 6 points.

So in the end, I think we'll take the House back with 20-25 gains and no losses and the Senate (the subject of this post) by 6 gains and zero losses. My guess is that with the natural tightening of the polls, some of the bigger predictions of 35-45 seats in the House and 7 seats in the Senate aren't going to be born out.

[LaCrosseDem]

1. I think Webb, Tester, and McCaskill all lose

They have a ton of momentum in races that are essentially tied.

[buff2]

2. You wish

:eyes:

[k_jerome]

5. say what? nt.

[William769]

7. Showing your true colors early?

[fujiyama]

3. I wouldn't be too upset

if things turn out according to your prediction. I'd really like for Ford to win, but that's not looking not too likely.

God, I'm disappointed that so many in MD are taken in by a slick SOB like Steele...WTF is up with these people? And MT? Fucking Burns is tied so closely with Abramoff.

Atleast OH and PA seem to have learned. VA would be a very sweet victory.

[elfin]

4. Whatever the number - it won't be enough

and if it is just 5 or 6 - look for Lieberman's Revenge. Oh, how I wish Ned could pull this one out.

[elperromagico]

6. Here's what I'm getting from polls right now.

They agree with yours insofar as who wins, but they disagree a bit on margins.

1) Pennsylvania - Median: D +10.5%, Average: D +11.1%

2) Ohio - Median: D +8.0%, Average: D +9.8%

3) Rhode Island - Median: D +6.5%, Average: D +6.5%

4) Virginia - Median: D +0.5%, Average: D +0.3%

5) Montana - Median: D +3.0%, Average: D +3.9%

6) Missouri - Median: D +0.5%, Average: D +0.2%

7) Tennessee - Median: R +3.5%, Average: R +4.2%

8) Arizona - Median: R +7.5%, Average: R +8.4%

9) Maryland - Median: D +5.0%, Average: D +4.9%

10) New Jersey - Median: D +6.0%, Average: D +6.3%

[thatsrightimirish]

8. we pick up 6

We win Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Missouri (I think she will win it by 5), Virginia, and Montana. And keep New Jersey and Maryland

We lose Tennessee by 7.

Pick up 29 in the house.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. I agree except for Missouri

I expect Talent to win that one. Generally I go along with the statewide trend, not buck it. Virginia has been trending blue so Webb gets the benefit of a doubt there. Tennessee and Missouri have moved red so I've got to believe that holds up.

Tester is a great candidate so I think he'll hold on narrowly. Remember, even though Montana votes heavily red in presidential terms almost every statewide office is held by a Democrat.

The one that concerns me is Rhode Island. Chafee's favorability rating is fine and the logic coming out of the September primary was the race would be very tight. I always like to default to the beginning and common sense, unless a major event or blunder has changed the dynamic. That hasn't happened with Chafee.

[liberalpragmatist]

10. Not true about Missouri

The trend - insofar as one can be detected - appears to be towards McCaskill. The five-poll average has McCaskill at 47 and Talent at 45.

http://pollster.com/polls/?state=MO&race=senate_race

She could still lose - this will be very tight. But I'm here in Missouri, and the mood among Democratic voters is very enthusiastic. The trends seem favorable to us and I genuinely think we'll win it.

[talk hard]

11. 2 many 2 close 2 call

[Azathoth]

12. I've got a good feeling about Tester for some reason

Webb and McCaskill are both way too close for me to call. Ford is toast.

I'm convinced that at least one race, probably Virginia or Missouri, is going to end up in Court.

I have a bad feeling we're going to be looking at a 50/50 Senate.

[cali]

13. Here's my prediction.

I agree with you about PA, OH, VA and NJ. I have a bad, bad feeling about MD (Did you know that Mifume's son held a rally yesterday with Steele?). I reluctantly predict that Talent holds in MS and that Tester edges by Burns in MT. We pick up net 4 seats in the Senate bringing us to 47 D plus 2 I. I actually feel a bit more optimistic than you about the House. I think we gain 28-30.

[liberalpragmatist]

14. I think 50-50 is quite likely

I'm biased towards a McCaskill (D) victory in Missouri because I've been doing volunteer work for that campaign. It LOOKS like Claire will be able to pull it out - the most recent polls all have her ever-so-slightly ahead and Talent has not yet cracked 50%. But it'll go down-to-the-wire and I certainly wouldn't dismiss the possibility of a Talent win.

I wish that in Maryland Democrats had nominated Rep. Chris Van Hollen. Cardin seems like a good guy, but he's unfortunately very dull and has run a very complacent campaign. Plus, he has repeatedly underperformed, even in the primary, where he only narrowly edged out Mfume despite being well-ahead of him in money and establishment support.

I think we'll hold onto the Maryland Senate seat, but it's gonna be a lot closer than we would have liked.