FIGHTING DEMS - The Crest of the Blue Wave and the Deep Blue Sea

[trillian]

Cross posted from Noel Shutz diary at kos


RACES THAT MATTER and RACES THAT MATTER

The point is that ALL races matter in this mid-term election. That is true of Fighting Dem races as well as many grassroots activists who have jumped into the trenches to reclaim territory long ceded to the Republican Party. And with the momentum of the "Blue Wave" continuing, races are being upgraded constantly even as election day is upon us. The feeling of movement on the ground is not reflected in some polls that underrate Fighting Dems, nor in polls that give excessive margins of victory to FDs. The feeling is one of a roiling beneath the waters that is moving in with the tied, mounting into swells and ready to break into whitecaps at its crest. Some polls seem to catch this momentum, some less so, but the momentum is there and election day might be a surprise to many.

Some of the Fighting Dem races are important because they have an excellent chance of winning in this election cycle and will go to DC to be among those who will steer a new course for our nation and help re-chart the direction of the Democratic Party. Other races are important because despite being underfunded, understaffed, underdogs, underrated and under the radar, they have made great advances. Many of these feel the momentum from on the ground but have had little attention from the pundits, prognosticators and the pollsters. Nevertheless, they have been building the Democratic Party "from the ground up"as as the campaign staff, volunteers, endorsing organizations and Democratic institutions will carry over into the next election cycle to emerge as competitive races in '08 when a strong Presidential candidate can hold promise of a new wave sweeping over the nation.
I have arranged the FD races into tiers using the Blue Wave metaphore. In cases where there has been movement upward I have sought a breaking point in averaging any polls if that seemed advisable. I did not use any boilerplate methodology but sought to follow trajectories. Where information from a district or state seemed to warrant it, I include remarks to that effect

1. The Crest (D+5 and up) - Weak to Strong Democratic Advantage. Riding the surf to victory if the candidates can organize strong GOTV efforts.
2. The Swell (R-4 to D+4) - Toss Up. The momentum is there to break into white caps, but at the moment they show up as within the margin of error. The election itself will reveal the true figures.
3. The Tide (R+15 to R+5) - Weak Republican Advantage. Building momentum with the right trajectory, but need to use the final days to catapult them into the top tiers.
4. The Deep Blue Sea (R+16 and lower) - Solid Republican Advantage or Unknown. The foundation the tidal wave from which the swells emerge. Solid Republican areas where the ground work has begun, but only with polling, funding and national support could these races have broken into a higher tier. Unfortunately, we do not have good stats on these races and that makes it difficult to pinpoint their momentum and trajectory. Reports from on the ground are extemely positive, but without numbers to crunch to give at least a ballpark figure, independent analysts are at the mercy of anecdotal reports, conflicting opinions, and perhaps ever well-meant but exaggerated claims, and worst of all, figures from the '04 election which are next to useless in many cases. There may be many surprises waiting the prognosticators. But the true measure of strength will probably come in the next election cycle for many of these races.

Electoral-vote.com, in noting a surprising development in one district, indicates the quandary we are in without polls in hundreds of races. Given the huge number of contested districts, a bit of foresight might have had the DCCC or DNC to do poll sweeps in something like early summer and early October to gauge the roiling beneath the waves.

One very surprising result is AZ-05 , where Harry Mitchell (D) has a tiny lead over incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ). This has to be worrying for the NRCC. Hayworth won by 22% in 2004 and now he is behind. If an incumbent in such a safe district is in trouble, what's going on in the 350 or so districts where there are no public polls?

In all cases below, the Democrats the challengers and Republicans are the incumbents or open seats vacated by an incumbent; Dems are listed first.

I. THE CREST (D+5 and up) - Weak to Strong Democratic Advantage..

1. NY-29: Eric Massa / Randy Kuhl 53/42% . RT Strategies 10/26.
2. PA-10: Chris Carney / Don Sherwood 52/37% ; 48/39% ; 50/38% ; 47/38%. Ave. 49/38 . RT Strategies 10/11; Lycoming Coll. 10/23; Franklin and Marshall 10/23; Keystone Poll 10/26.
3. PA-07: Joe Sestak / Curt Weldon 52/44% ; 50/43%. Ave. 51/44 . RT Strategies 10/10; Benenson Strategy Group 10/24.
4. IL-06: Tammy Duckworth / Peter Roskam 48/47% ; 54/40/%. Ave. 51/43.5 . RT Strategies 10/10; Zogby 10/29; Gallup.

II. THE SWELL (R-4 to D+4) - Toss Up.

5. KY-04: Ken Lucas / Geoff Davis 50/46% ; 45/42%. Ave. 47.5/44% . RT Strategies 10/26; Zogby 10/29.
6. VA-SEN: Jim Webb / George Allen 43/44 ; 49/49 ; 46/45. Ave. 47/46 D+1]. Zogby 10/30; Rasmussen 11/02; Mason-Dixon 11/03.
7. PA-08 Patrick Murphy / Mike Fitzpatrick 50/47 ; 42/47 ; 46/41. Ave. 46/45 . RT Strategy 10/26 ; Muhlenberg College 10/27 ; Global Strategies Group 10/30.
8. MN-01: Tim Walz / Gil Gutknecht (R) 47/48% . RT Strategies 10/26.
9. NY-26: Jack Davis / Tom Reynolds 46/50% . SurveyUSA 11/03.
10. CO-05: Jay Fawcett / Doug Lamborn 40/47% 42/51%. Ave. 41.5/49 . Mason-Dixon10/27 ; Survey USA.
11. 14. A-04: Charlie Brown / John Doolittle 39/39% 43/50% Ave. 41/44.5% . RT Strategies 10/26 ; Survey USA 11/3.

III. THE TIDE (R+5 to R+15) - Weak Republican Advantage.

12. TX-21: John Courage / Lamar Smith (30.5%+10=) 40.6/45.6% . Forensic Economics Data Consulting - 10/10

13. OH-12: Bob Shamansky / Pat Tiberi 46/51% . RT Strategies 10/26.
, showing the kind of momentum many of these races have.]
14. KY-02: Mike Weaver / Ron Lewis 46/43% ; 36/50% Ave. 41/50 Ave. 41/47 . Lauer Research 10/29; Voter-Consumer Research 10/31.
15. TN-07: Bill Morrison / Marsha Blackburn 40/47% {R+7]. Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates in early October. .
16: TX-10 (R): Ted Ankrum / Michael McCaul 42/51% . Forensic Economic Data Consulting
17. IL-14 (R): John Laesch / Dennis Hastert 42/52% {R+10]. RT Strategies 10/10.
17. IN-03 Tom Hayhurst / Mark Souder 40/52% {R+12]. Research 2000 10/26.
18. CO-06: Bill Winter / Tom Tancredo 36/48% . Anzalone-Liszt Research.
19. NV-SEN: Jack Carter / John Ensign 42/54% Rasmussen 10/31

IV. THE DEEP BLUE SEA (R+16 and lower)

IV-A. Solid Republican Advantage

20. VA-05: Al Weed / Virgil Goode 35/61% . SurveyUSA 11/01.
21. DE-AL: Dennis Spivak / Michael Castle 24/59% Farleigh Dickinson U. 10/24

IV-B. Unknown - No polls. Can't imagine why some of these races at least have not been polled. Some of these races are not long shots, but stand a good chance. They are given either four or three stars by DC Political Report.

OH-04: Richard Siferd / Jim Jordon. Running to fill the seat vacated by retiring Michael G. Oxley. Given four stars by DC Political Report!

IL-17: Bill Hare / Andrea Lane Zinga. Running to fill a seat vacated by Democrat Lane Evans. It will not affect the balance of power but will put in a vet to replace Evans, a strong vet advocate. Given four stars by DC Political Report.
CA-46. Jim Brandt / Dan Rohrabacher.. Jim is pushing Rohrabacher for all it is worth. Like some other campaigns, the debates will help name recognition and a knowledge of stands on the issues. Three stars.
MD-06: Andrew Duck / Roscoe Bartlett. A Military Intelligence Officer, he like Jim Marcinkowski, could benefit from security blunders by the Bush administration. Three stars.
MI- Jim Marcinkowski / Mike Rogers. Vet and ex-CIA agent Jim could benefit from current GOP security blunders. Three stars.

And many, many more.
The Elected Fighting Dems as the Forward Patrol
To change the metaphor, those Fighting Dems who are elected to the Halls of Congress at this mid-term election are simply the forward patrol for the main army coming up in the next election cycle. Stay tuned to Fighting Dems.com after the election to see them chart their courses for victory in '08 to continue the revolution to Take Back America.
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