Senate predictions thread.......Who'll take the top ten races.....?

[Rowdyboy]

Pick a winner in each of this years top ten senate races. Then, as a tie-breaker, predict the final numerical spread in house races.

My call on which are the top ten senate races?

1. Rhode Island: Chafee-v-Whitehouse
2. Missouri: Talent-v-McCaskill
3. Montana: Burns-v-Tester
4. Virginia: Allen-v-Webb
5. Ohio: Dewine-v-Brown
6. Pennsylvania: Santorum-v-Casey
7. Tennessee: Corker-v-Ford
8. New Jersey: Menendez-v-Kean
9. Maryland: Cardin-v-Steele
10. Connecticut: Schlesinger-v-Lamont-v-Lieberman

My personal picks? Whitehouse (51-48), McCaskill (50-49), Tester (53-47), Webb51-48), Brown (55-45), Casey (54-46), Corker (%1-49), Menendez (54-46), Cardin (53-47), and Lieberman (45-43-12) for a Democratic pickup of six and a narrow control of the senate.

Tie-breaker numbers for the house? My guess, 237-198 Democratic lead.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Here ya go

1. Whitehouse by 7%
2. Toss-up
3. Tester by 4%
4. Webb by 1.5%
5. Brown by 8%
6. Casey by 9%
7. Corker by 4%
8. Menendez by 6%
9. Cardin by 6%
10. Lieberman 46% Lamont 43% Schlesinger 10%
11. Kyl will only win by 4%

Bookmark it.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. Ford will eke out on TN

That's what I'm looking at. Early voting (I'm assuming) went towards Ford.

Hawkeye-X

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. Nope

Never happen

[Rowdyboy]

6. Damn I hope you're right.....

Being from Mississippi, I'm doubtful, but Ford has run an amazing campaign and if anyone could pull out a miracle win, its him.

[longship]

4. Here are mine

Whitehouse, McCaskill, Tester, Webb, Brown, Casey (that's six), Corker (Oi!), Menendez, Cardin, Lieberman (Pshaw!).

Tie-breaker: Dems take 51 seats from Repukes.

Tie-breaker-breaker: Dems lose *ZERO* seats in either House or Senate.

[gaspee]

5. number one

Whitehouse!

And from just a few hours ago...

<>




2 McCaskill
3 Tester
4 Webb
5 Brown
6 Casey
7 Corker
8 Kean
9 Cardin
10 Lamont

tiebreaker

250 - 185

[Rowdyboy]

7. Love your house prediction, pray you're right about Lamont and wrong

about Kean!

[elperromagico]

8. Here you go.

I'm rounding to the nearest half-point.

1. Rhode Island: Whitehouse by 5.0%
2. Missouri: McCaskill by 1%
3. Montana: Tester by 2.5%
4. Virginia: Webb by 1.0%
5. Ohio: Brown by 11.0%
6. Pennsylvania: Casey by 11.0%
7. Tennessee: Corker by 4.5%
8. New Jersey: Menendez by 6.5%
9. Maryland: Cardin by 4.5%
10. Connecticut: Lieberman by 11.5%

I won't do the House prediction. I haven't been paying as much attention to those. :P

[stevietheman]

9. Predict06 closes down in a few hours -- get your predictions in

Here's the DU pool:

http://www.predict06.com/pools/view/43

[last_texas_dem]

10. Alright, here are my pick

1. Rhode Island: Whitehouse over Chafee by 3 points
2. Missouri: Talent over McCaskill by 0.5 point*
3. Montana: Tester over Burns by 2 points
4. Virginia: Webb over Allen by 1 point
5. Ohio: Brown over DeWine by 9 points
6. Pennsylvania: Casey over Santorum by 7 points
7. Tennessee: Corker over Ford by 4 points
8. New Jersey: Menendez over Kean by 5 points
9. Maryland: Cardin over Steele by 4 points
10. Connecticut: Lieberman over Lamont by 10 points

* I hate to even predict Missouri. From the polls, and definitely based on the strengths of the candidates, it seems like McCaskill should prevail by 1 or 2 points. But I just have a bad gut feeling, maybe based on the way MO has voted in the last two cycles. I'd love to be proven wrong, though, because my current prediction would have us end up with a 50-50 tie in the Senate. I do think there's a chance we will take Missouri, though; I'm not comfortable assuming that about any of the other close ones (TN, AZ, NV, etc.), though.

My prediction for the final House margin is 223 D to 212 R. Hopefully, this is a conservative prediction. I think getting burned in '02 and '04 is making me a little less optimistic than I would be otherwise.