The Most Thorough Breakdown Of Seante Polls On The Internet

[JABBS]

Click here to read the race-by-race analysis.

Essentially, the Dems should have four seats in the bag. Two lean to the GOP because of historical voting patterns. IF the Dems get those two, they regain control.

[JABBS]

1. no comments?

such a quiet crowd this morning ...

[madmusic]

2. Held the cursor over the link and...

Who the hell is Jabbs? Why would his/her predictions count more than anyone else's? In short, what make this "the most thorough breakdown"?

[JABBS]

5. JABBS is a blog

And there's nothing suggesting that JABBS' predictions count more than anyone else's.

[Infinite Hope]

3. That's not thorough...not even close...

and essentially is a knock-off of what pollsters have been saying for a long time. This is nothing new and nothing thorough and nothing original.

[JABBS]

4. you are unnecessarily negative

I went through five-poll averages for nearly 100 House races and all the key Senate races, took into consideration historical voting patterns in the given district or state, and also looked at the momentum of the most recent polling.

You took five seconds to make a criticism. Bravo.

[ChiciB1]

6. Not Buying This... I'm Still Holding Onto TN Myself & Others

polls are trending that way too1 And MO seems WAY off!

Sorry, but you COULD be right on... for now I don't think so.

[JABBS]

7. TN and MO

Recent polls in Tennessee have Corker up by an average of 6 points. Some have him up by as much as 11-12 points. I would like to see Ford win, but I don't see it happening.

Ford would need to get 40% of the white vote in Tennessee and near 100% of the black vote (blacks make up 16% of the voter rolls). Projections have Ford maybe getting 33% of the white vote.

As for Missouri, it's really too close to call. I put it in the toos-up/lean Republican pile, as with Virginia, because although the polls show those races as essentially ties, Republicans have historically had better get-out-the-vote efforts, especially in rural areas that are well-populated with Christian conservatives.

In the Missouri case, the embryonic stem cell research ballot initiative is being falsely positioned by the right as a bill that will allow human cloning. That false assertion could be a rallying cry to increase Republican voter turnout. As a result, I think the odds favor Talent retaining the seat.

I could be wrong, obviously. :)

[JABBS]

8. positive sign in Montana

Via Hotline blog:

he MT Sec of State reported Friday that 106K voters cast ballots early or by absentee... well over 1/4 of the votes expected in the state. Of these, Dem internal polls had Jon Tester winning 58-37.