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Here are some excerpts, posted with actual results...
By John J. Miller
NR Policital Reporter/ Bush Apologist/ Republican in Denial
November 09, 2005, 4:25 a.m.
Senatorial Prospects
Looking ahead to a year from now.
Professional pundits will spend the rest of this week debating whether the Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia yesterday provide a glimpse of what will happen in next year’s elections. It’s a quadrennial ritual of the chattering class.
Here are the facts: It’s been more than a decade since these off-year results seem to have foreshadowed elections that were still 12 months away. In 1993, the success of Republican gubernatorial candidates Christie Todd Whitman (in New Jersey) and George Allen (in Virginia) preceded 1994’s GOP triumphs. The last two cycles haven’t augured anything: Republican wins in 1997 were followed by Democrat congressional gains in 1998; the reverse was true for 2001 and 2002.
Herewith, a new look at next year’s Senate contests. (To check out appraisals from last spring, go here.)
FLORIDA : Republican congresswoman Katherine Harris certainly doesn’t suffer from what hobbles so many other Senate challengers: Low name recognition. In her case, though, too many people don’t like her because of the role she played as Florida’s secretary of state in 2000. A GOP poll in September put the race at 48 percent for Democratic senator Bill Nelson and 36 percent for Harris, and although the contest may tighten this one is already beginning to discourage Republicans, who believe Nelson is a weak incumbent. If Harris shows lackluster fundraising numbers at the end of this year, there’s a chance that Rep. Mark Foley will jump into the race and give her a primary. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
(RESULTS: NELSON 60%/HARRIS 38%)
MINNESOTA : The candidacy of GOP congressman Mark Kennedy probably represents the GOP’s best pickup opportunity of the cycle, as he competes for an open seat. The Democrats will choose between a pair of liberals, Amy Klobuchar and Patty Wetterling. LEANING REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER
(RESULTS: KLOBUCHAR 58%/KENNEDY 38%)
MISSOURI: The Democrats didn’t recruit their best candidate to challenge GOP senator Jim Talent — that probably would have been secretary of state Robin Carnahan — but they may have gotten the next best thing in Claire McCaskill. Republicans may suggest that McCaskill is a lousy candidate because she lost the election for governor in 2004. But the last pol to lose a gubernatorial race and then run for the Senate successfully was Talent. The incumbent always enjoys an advantage, but this looks like a potential nail biter. LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION
(RESULTS: MCCASKILL 50%/TALENT 47%)
MONTANA: Republican senator Conrad Burns will be a heavy favorite to defeat Democratic state auditor John Morrison. If 2006 turns out to be a very good year for Democrats nationally, however, this could become a race to watch. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
(RESULTS: TESTER 49%/BURNS 48%)
NEW JERSEY: With Democratic senator Jon Corzine elected governor, the big question now becomes whom he will pick as his replacement in the Senate. His best choice might be acting governor Richard J. Codey; a member of the state’s congressional delegation also could win the Senate lotto. Whatever Corzine does, a primary battle looms. Republicans, in contrast, are getting behind Tom Kean Jr., the son of the former governor and a moderate who might be well suited to New Jersey’s political climate. TOSS UP
(RESULTS: MENEDEZ 53%/KEAN 45%)
OHIO: In one poll over the summer, only 31 percent of likely voters said that Republican senator Mike DeWine deserves reelection. Democratic congressman Sherrod Brown is probably too liberal to defeat him, but former House candidate Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost a special election outside Cincinnati in August, might have a chance. A new poll published in the Columbus Dispatch actually suggests that either Democrat could pull it off. If Hackett wins the nomination, he might also grab an endorsement from the National Rifle Association, which would be a big plus in this swing state. DeWine isn’t helped by the fact that GOP governor Bob Taft is wildly unpopular. LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION
(RESULTS: BROWN 56%/DEWINE 44%)
PENNSYLVANIA: Democrats are drooling over this one — they think they’ve got Republican senator Rick Santorum in their crosshairs. A poll last month showed Democratic state treasurer Bob Casey Jr. leading the incumbent among likely voters, 52 percent to 36 percent. This race probably represents the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. But before it’s over, it will look very close and conservative standard-bearer Santorum may yet prevail. TOSS UP
(RESULTS: CASEY 59%/SANTORUM 41%)
RHODE ISLAND: Many Republicans are still mad at GOP senator Lincoln Chafee, who couldn’t even bring himself to vote for President Bush’s re-election last year. (On his ballot, he wrote in the name of Bush’s father.) Now Chafee is trying to fend off a primary challenge from Cranston mayor Steve Laffey, who aspires to become the Pat Toomey of the 2006 cycle. Waiting in the wings are the Democratic contenders, secretary of state Matt Brown and former attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse. TOSS UP
(RESULTS: WHITEHOUSE 53%/CHAFEE 47%)
VIRGINIA: Democratic governor Mark Warner might have given Republican senator George Allen a real scare, but he isn’t running. As a result, Allen can coast through 2006 and start planning for 2008. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
(RESULTS: WEBB 50%/ALLEN 49%)
WASHINGTON: First-term Democratic senator Maria Cantwell looks beatable, and Republicans hope they’ve found a strong candidate in Safeco CEO Mike McGavick. A GOP poll in October put Cantwell ahead, 48 percent to 39 percent. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
(RESULTS: CANTWELL 58%/MCGAVICK 39%)
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