Where Webb v. Allen stands as of 11:00 AM

[onenote]

Below is information taken from the Virginia Elections website. As you can see, it reports that Webb is holding a lead of around 7000 votes with four precincts still not reporting. I have taken a look at those four missing precincts and here is what I've found.

Two of the four are in James City County, which is in the 3rd Congrssional District. The two precincts that are not showing any votes are "Absentee vote" (which is a surrogate "precinct") and Roberts 2. Looking at the results for the 2004 and 2005 elections in virginia, neither of these "precincts" reported any votes in those two elections. IN other words, they are not active precincts any more. No one votes in them.

So that leaves two precincts. One is in Isle of Wight in the 4th Congressional District. The precinct is Raynor. In 2004, 266 votes were cast in Raynor, with around 80 for Kerry and 180 for Bush. However, in 2005, the margin was much closer, with Kilgore getting aroun 93 votes and Kaine getting 76. In any event, its a small number of votes and is likely only to bring Allen marginally closer.

The last missing precinct is close to home: its the absentee vote "precinct" for the 11th Congressional District and the news is good. In 2004, nearly 1000 votes were cast in this "precinct" and they went to Kerry by a margin of about 100 votes. In 2005, slightly under 400 votes were cast, with a margin of 70 votes for Kaine.
So its likely that these votes will skew slightly towards Webb and probably offset whatever gain Allen gets in Isle of Wight

So, my prediction: when all is said and done, its still around 7000 vote lead for Webb. Not enough to avoid a recount, but probably too much (hopefully) to overcome in a recount.





Office: U.S. Senate

Precincts Reporting: 2439 of 2443 (99.84%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,674 Total Voting: 2,365,079 Voter Turnout: 51.92 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,171,813 49.55%
G F Allen Republican 1,164,767 49.25%
G G Parker Independent Green 26,160 1.11%
Write Ins 2,339 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Vote Totals: -- Total: 2,365,079

[Maven]

1. Thank you for this analysis. nt

[Monty_]

2. Sounds good

can I hold you to that prediction?

[wakeme2008]

3. Kick and Nom for your Analysis :) nt

[Freedom_from_Chains]

4. I just so one of the officials from VA on Fox a few minutes ago

and he said that a recount is unlikely to change anything so even Fox is predicting a win for Webb at this time.

[Hav]

5. .

I so hope you are right. We need this state and we need to kick out a racist.
I heard that there were still many absentee ballots though.

[LostinVA]

12. The majority of absentee ballot were counted last night

They were heavily military -- and thus heavily Webb.

People need to accept we won Virginia.

Any recount will only be a legal formality. Webb will be certified November 26, and the certification will stand. We have a new Senator.

[Hav]

13. .

That would be great and I'm glad for you.
You people deserve better than Allen ;).

[ashling]

6. Any word on the investigations

of Allen crap?

[GetTheRightVote]

7. After all the dirty tricks on Repub part in VA that are probably surprised no win

for their guy. The voting was just to high for them to steal it or suppress it.

:kick:

[Gregorian]

8. Pins and needles!

It doesn't have that 2000 feeling.

[lpbk2713]

9. Will someone please pass the Kleenex to Allen?

[DaveinMD]

10. its over

whether or not Allen admits it. The recount will switch less than 100 votes.

[Penndems]

11. The 11th is my CD

Jim Webb will carry it handily!

[Mr_Spock]

14. Thanks for adding in the details of the remaining votes

I am feeling pretty confident about this one at this time :D

[lebkuchen]

15. Thanks

appreciate it.

[wiley]

16. The Green Party. Really.

[kwolf68]

17. NOPE

try voter turnout....49% didn't show up. People should never be condemned for voting their conscience...only for not voting.

I hold no ill will toward Green voters who voted Green....it looks like Webb will win and those 26K plus green votes may give Jim Webb a message that there is another constituency to consider.

I never EVER rail against anyone voting Green should they decide. I agree with them probably more than the Democrats, but would never vote against a good Democrat in favor of a Green with no chance to win. That is my personal decision and it's no more right than another's personal decision to go with their heart.

[Jai4WKC08]

24. No? You mean I can't condemn...

The Republican assholes who voted for the racist, misogynist and fortunately not too bright George F. Allen?

What a load. Greens are as responsible for wrong (stupid and/or immoral) voting as anyone else.

I might agree that most Green-voters are just stupid, or maybe so egotistical that they think their righteous vote is more important that the lives of real people.

But some of 'em don't give a damn about the wellbeing of the rest of us. They actually WANT the Repubs to win. Either they think it'll bring on the revolution (or whatever) that much sooner, I guess, or they just hate Democrats that much. Neither one is particularly rational, but these people are no more rational than the worst fundy Christian right-winger.

[struggle4progress]

18. Virginia board of elections is down to 3 non-reporting precincts:

In Fairfax City, Central Absentee Precinct (C011) shows 627 votes: split Webb-Allen as 351-268, slightly increasing Webbs lead

[MattP]

19. Bogus green party

It wasn't the "real" green party, they should rename themselves the train party instead of fooling people that want to vote green to vote for them. It's like if I named myself the independent democrat party.

[struggle4progress]

20. Ghost Precinct In James City County (WTKR)

Priscilla Monti Reporting
Ghost Precinct In James City County

Nov 8, 2006 12:04 PM EST

The race for Virginia Senate is so tight, a zero vote could count. A precinct in James City County reports zero because it is a "ghost precinct". But that zero tally was causing problems with election results on Wednesday.

James City County General Registrar Alan Cole, Sr. says the report on the state website that only 14 of 16 James City County precincts reported is incorrect, sort of. "James City County precincts were 100-percent reported at 8:18 last night. Part of the problem is 2 of our precincts are referred to as ghost precincts. We really only have 14 precincts."

Precinct 502 is the problem. Half of it is in Congressional District 1. Half is in Congressional District 3. The portion in District 3 is in the James River. No one lives there. The Registrar must report zero. "We report zero and it doesn't recognize that as a reported precinct."

Because of that zero, the computer also doesn't recognize the results for the Central Absentee Ballots either. That's 1727 votes. James City County voter Allen Volz hopes that doesn't affect the race for Senate. "I think this is ridiculous. I'm not surprised though. Computers are great, but sometimes they don't work. This is a close race." ...

http://www.wtkr.com/Global/story.asp?S=5650574&nav=ZolHbyvj

[struggle4progress]

23. Computer kicked back JCC precinct totals to state

By Seth Freedland
Daily Press
November 8, 2006, 11:37 AM EST

JAMES CITY -- Voting totals from some precincts in James City County did not get reported to the state Board of Elections Tuesday night because of a computer error, the county regisrar said.

When James City officials sent its voting totals to the state at around 8 p.m. on Election Day, the system repeatedly kicked back the data from four precincts, said registrar A.J. Cole.

There were a few pieces of stray code that the reporting system couldn't identify, preventing the state computer from recording the votes, initially.

By 9:10 a.m. today, the coding was fixed and all precinct totals were updated, Cole said.

http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/dp-jccprecincts,0,798036.story?coll=dp-news-local-final

State board of election still not showing two JCC precincts

[flpoljunkie]

21. From the TPMCafe: A statement on the Senate race in Virginia from the DSCC

Virginia Process: A canvass is underway to verify the results and we expect that process to finish within a day or so. To be in recount, the margin needs to be less than 1% and Allen (as the loser) would have to request it. Because of Virginia voting laws, the margin would have to be much tighter than it currently is to see any change in the outcome. Given the current margins, that is highly, highly unlikely.

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/nov/08/dems_confident_in_mt_va_senate_outcomes

[struggle4progress]

22. Look out for James city county

[onenote]

26. only votes not reported in JCC are conditional votes

doubt its more than a handful. Probably a lot fewer than in Fairfax or Arlington Counties

[onenote]

25. Virginia Bd of ELections now showing only 94.81 percent of precincts

have reported.
How is this possible? Well, it turns out that the number of "precincts" has increased from 2443 to 2599!
But not to worry too much. These "new" precincts simply are designations for conditional ballots in various counties. For example, in Fairfax County, three new "precincts" now appear: conditional ballots for the 8th District, conditional ballots for the 10th District, and conditional ballots for the 11th District (Fairfax County is split between these three Congressional districts).

While I don't know how many conditional ballots there are in these three areas of Fairfax, where conditional ballots have been reported in other portions of the state, the numbers have been small. I would imagine that as many of these conditional ballots (or more) will go for Webb as for Allen and that the total when they are all counted won't vary much from the margin currently shown.