Deja Vu? Probability of VA and MT Senate Exit Poll Discrepancies : TIA

[mom cat]

Deja Vu? Probability of VA and MT Senate Exit Poll Discrepancies


TruthIsAll

Edited by TruthIsAll on Thu Nov-09-06 12:16 AM

Which senate races deviated the most from the pre-election and 7pm exit poll
to the recorded vote? Virginia and Montana, the elections which were
"too close to call" for hours after the polls closed.

Here are the probabilities:
Dev: Discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit poll
vote share and the recorded vote share.
Prob: Probability of discrepancy

.. Dev Prob
MT 4% 1.61e-04 or 1 in 6,196
VA 3% 3.37e-03 or 1 in 297

As usual, the Final Exit Poll was MATCHED to the RECORDED vote.

Please don't ask WHY.
It's par for the course.
Edison-Mitofsky always assume ZERO fraud.
Remember 2004? It's deja vu all over again.

Only this time, everyone was watching.

So which exit poll do you believe, the 7pm or the Final?

Pre-elect 2-ptyProj 7pmExit FinalExit FinalVote
Avg 46.4 45.6 52.5 47.5 53.0 45.9 52.5 46.4 52.3 46.5
Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP
MT 48.0 47.0 51.0 49.0 53 46 50.0 47.5 49 48
MO* 47.8 46.2 51.4 48.6 50 48 48.8 47.7 50 47
OH 51.0 43.3 54.4 45.6 57 43 56.0 44.0 56 44
PA 52.3 40.8 56.4 43.6 57 42 59.0 41.0 59 41

RI 48.3 40.5 55.0 45.0 53 46 53.8 46.2 53 47
TN 43.0 51.5 46.3 53.7 48 51 48.1 50.9 48 51
VA* 46.4 45.8 51.1 48.9 53 46 50.1 49.9 50 49
NJ 48.0 42.0 54.0 46.0 53 45 54.2 43.9 53 45

Dev1: Discrepancy from the 7pm Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev2: Discrepancy from the Final Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev3: Dev2-Dev1
Prob: Probability of discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit poll
vote share and the recorded vote.



Dev1 Dev2 Dev3 MoE >MoE Prob 1 in
MT* 6.0 1.5 -4.5 2.18% yes 1.61E-04 6,196
MO -1.0 -1.9 -0.9 1.92% 5.00E-01 2
OH 2.0 0.0 -2.0 2.04% 1.68E-01 6
PA -3.0 0.0 3.0 1.97% 9.77E-01 1

RI 1.0 1.6 0.6 2.86% 5.00E-01 2
TN 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.95% 5.00E-01 2
VA* 6.0 -0.8 -6.8 2.17% yes 3.37E-03 297
NJ 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.18% 5.00E-01 2



HERE'S A COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION 2004 SITE:
POLLING DATA, ANALYSIS, DISCUSSION
and...
THE EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
http://www.truthisall.net/

Downloads in a minute (4mb)
Easy to use (3 inputs)
Press F9 to run 200 simulations
Pre-election/exit polls
(51 State & 18 National)

A challenge to all those who still believe Bush won:
Use the National Exit Poll
"How Voted in 2000" demographic
("NatExit" sheet) to come up
with just ONE plausible Bush win scenario.

Note the feasibility constraint:
The maximum ratio of Bush 2000 voters to the total 2004 vote is 39.8%
(48.7mm/122.3mm)

Post the scenario on the Election Forum at ProgressiveIndependent.com and/or Democratic Undergound.com



View the original 11/1/04 election model forecast of Kerry winning
51.63-51.80% of the 2-party vote:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Zynx]

1. Not bloody likely. We control the state machinery in VA.

[ret5hd]

4. You control the machinery of your desktop computer too...

anyone ever slipped a virus past you?

[spooky3]

5. but not the county level polls in every county

[Zynx]

8. If they're so massively in control, how come they couldn't overturn

just 7,000 votes.

[spooky3]

9. maybe because they knew they were being watched closely?

And how do know they weren't successful in interfering in some counties--just not enough?

[FighttheFuture]

10. Maybe they tried, but didn't set up the controls enough. The turnout overwhelmed

their fixed machines.

[mom cat]

2. I qwill try to clean up the tables.

[ret5hd]

6. you qwill?

qwell, you get to qwork on that!

[mom cat]

7. Knock it off. I am tired,

[texpatriot2004]

3. K & R nm