Real Clear Politics: Eight House Seats Remain Undecided

[Lasher]

According to Real Clear Politics, Democrats have gained a total of 28 House seats. There are eight races left undecided at this time. Two of the races will be decided in December runoffs:

• Louisiana’s 2nd District: Incumbent William J. Jefferson (D) will go up against Karen Carter (D) in a December 9 runoff. Either way this seat will be held by a Democrat.

• Texas’ 23rd District: Incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) will compete with Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) in a December runoff.

Here is the status of the remaining six undecided races:

• Connecticut’s 2nd District: At the latest count, Democratic challenger Joe Courtney led three-term Republican Rep. Rob Simmons by 170 votes out of 242,472 counted, a difference of .08 percent.

• Georgia’s 12th District: Incumbent John Barrow (D) holds a narrow lead against challenger Max Burns (R), by 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent —a margin of about 3,400 votes with 96 percent of precincts reporting.

• New Mexico’s 1st District: Rep. Heather A. Wilson (R) leads challenger Patricia Madrid (D) by about 1,150 votes out of more than 201,000 cast, a difference of half a percentage point, with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

• North Carolina’s 8th District: Incumbent Robin Hayes (R) leads Larry Kissell (D) by 456 votes out of more than 120,000 counted, a margin of two-tenths of 1 percent.

• Washington’s 8th District: The race between incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert (R) and Darcy Burner (D) is on the undecided list because so little of the vote has been counted, largely because of major flooding that hit the rain-soaked district on Tuesday. The latest AP report showed Reichert leading by 51 percent to 49 percent with fewer than a third of the precincts reporting.

• Wyoming at-large: Incumbent Barbara Cubin (R) hung on to a lead of 970 votes over Gary Traunerout (D) with nearly 193,000 cast. This is a difference of half a percentage point.

Real Clear Politics House Scorecard

NY Times: Undecided House Race Roundup

Edit to correct really stupid error regarding TX-23 x(

[Cooley Hurd]

1. OH-02: Wulsin hasn't conceded yet...

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061108/NEWS/61108003/-1/CINCI

Victoria Wulsin says she’s down but not out of the race in Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District.

The Democrat refused to concede defeat to incumbent Jean Schmidt today, saying she will wait until thousands of provisional ballots are counted before declaring the tight race over.

“There should be no rush to name a victor,” said Wulsin spokesman Ady Barkan. “It’s more important to name the right victor.”
<snip>

“We have reason to believe these could break for us,” Barkan said of the provisional ballots.

When all the votes have been counted, Wulsin could request a recount if the margin is less than 1 percent of the total ballots cast. Right now, it’s slightly more than 1 percent.

Burke said a 2,000-vote lead would be much more significant once the provisional ballots are counted.

Until then, he said, Wulsin should hold off on her concession speech.

“If you get through the official count and you’ve still got a margin of 2,000 votes, I don’t think a recount is going to change anything,” Burke said. “But that’s not where we are right now. We’ve got thousands of uncounted ballots out there.”
</snip>

[Divernan]

4. Good for her! Provisional ballots COULD make the difference.

nt

[democraticinsurgent]

7. OH-15 (Pryce/Kilroy) should also be on that list

Cackling Deborah claimed victory yesterday, but her lead is down to 2800 with more than 20k votes to be counted, 95% of which are in the Kilroy stronghold of Franklin County (Columbus).

I think this one will be Democratic in the end, but we'll probably have to wait until certification and provisionals.

Wake up RCP!

[philb]

12. They should check more than provisionals; lots of fraud & manipulation again

documented by the election monitors; might not be hard to document some in hers

[Lasher]

14. RCP has apparently called some races that CNN has not

There is not a total consensus on all races that should be in the 'called' category. If you go to the RCP site and click on the OH-2 link you will be taken to the corresponding page at CNN, where you will see that this race has not been called by them.

I suppose RCP figured that a 2% lead is enough to call this one for Schmidthead. I have to agree, particularly when I think of other races with closer margins like the Virginia Senate victory. I sincerely hope RCP and I are wrong about this one, however.

Edit HTML tag

[democraticinsurgent]

16. Big difference: Still votes to count

My understanding is that, like OH-15, there are still many absentees and provisionals outstanding. If you look at how Webb came back from a 25k deficit Tuesday night, you can see how Wulsin can also come back, depending on where the absentees and provisionals are in.

In Va., they counted everything Tuesday night. Not so in Ohio.

[Lasher]

19. Point well taken, democraticinsurgent

You might have noticed that the NYT article that I linked in the OP included both these races in their article about the undecided races.

Do you know how many of these votes are left to be counted in OH-2 & OH-15? For us to have any chance at all there need to be at least 2,323 and 3,536, respectively.

[democraticinsurgent]

27. 20,000 in OH-15. Not sure about the other one. n/t

[Lasher]

32. You're right, RCP should have included OH-2 & OH-15 on the undecided list

I don't know why they didn't include these 2 districts on their undecided list but they should have. They have done a pretty good job all year. :shrug:

[BeFree]

28. Pre-election poll Ohio2

 Average polls                    Expected             
         Early   Latest            NOV.7           
      Dem GOP   Dem GOP           Dem   GOP   
 OH 2  46  51    48  45           52.2   47.8    

[Skinner]

2. This analysis of TX-23 is wrong. It could well go Republican.

The run off is between the Incumbent Henry Bonilla -- Who is a Republican, not a Democrat -- who got 48% of the vote, and Ciro D. Rodriguez, the Democrat, who got 20%. Bonilla was not "defeated" per se -- he got more votes than any other candidate, but since he didn't surpass the minimum 50% he has to go to a run-off against the runner-up.

By the way, there doesn't exist anyone by the name of "Had Bonilla." It appears that someone misread a sentence from the New York Times article: "Had Bonilla won a majority in Tuesday’s contest, he would have been deemed elected outright."

[AIJ Alom]

5. Wonder if the Fox "minority speaker" maker has a cousin over at

RCP. Had Bonilla ! Hah.

[Lasher]

6. Thanks, I think I've still got time to edit the OP

Duh. :dunce:

[AIJ Alom]

3. Major problem 23 CD TX is not a pickup. Bonilla (R) is in a run off with

Rodriguez (D). RCP needs to fix this. I was wondering why there were 4 Democrats running in this race, splitting the Dem vote now I see why. I'd love to see Bonilla (R-Bushbot) get picked off and Ciro Rodriguez is a good candidate.

[Lasher]

9. The error was mine, not RCP's

Thanks for alerting me to my really stupid mistake. I edited the OP, all better now I hope.

I am more likely to make mistakes when I'm excited like we all are right now. :headbang:

[AIJ Alom]

11. Well at least you owned up to it, unlike say Fox News. Thanks.

Responsible thread posting....can't beat it !

[Lasher]

24. Hey, it's all good!

None of us should be afraid to admit it when we are wrong. Don't you just detest people who won't? I do. There is no shame in being wrong, but there is in staying wrong. I am grateful to folks like you here at DU who won't let me stay wrong. And look, I made the greatest page. Yay!

[philb]

8. Lots more than 8 races undecided- evidence lots were hacked

Those need to be audited this time.
Such as the Jennings/Buchanan race in Florida where Jennings was far ahead in polls but saw her votes disappear into touch screens

In FL, Electronic Voting Shortfall Raises Eyebrows
By Paul Kiel - November 8, 2006, 11:03 AM
A recount battle is brewing, fittingly, in Katherine Harris' old seat, where a voting shortfall on buggy electronic voting machines is calling the election results into doubt.
From The Herald Tribune:
Republican Vern Buchanan was clinging to a 368-vote edge over Democrat Christine Jennings for the 13th Congressional District early this morning.
Although Buchanan declared victory just before 1 a.m., the razor-thin margin kept Jennings from conceding defeat and will generate an automatic recount....
The results were loaded with controversy as nearly 13 percent of all ballots cast in Sarasota didn’t include a choice for Congress. That difference, and scattered reports of difficulty finding the race on Sarasota’s touchscreen ballots, raised concerns about under votes in the race.
Supervisor of Elections Kathy Dent couldn’t explain why 8,000 to 10,000 fewer people voted in the congressional race than in other high-profile races for governor, attorney general or U.S. Senate. But she said nothing mechanical went wrong with the county’s $4.7 million touchscreen voting machine system....
Throughout the day voters complained that touchscreen voting machines were not registering votes for Jennings properly. Jennings campaign held a midday press conference to warn the problem was widespread....
Already Democrats were calling in lawyers from the Democratic National Committee to weigh in on the potential voting issues....
In Sarasota County, with all but one precinct reporting, 87,797 people voted for Bill Nelson, Katherine Harris or another candidate for U.S. Senate. In the governor race between Charlie Crist and Jim Davis, 87,678 county resident voted.
Only 76,549 voted for Jennings or Buchanan. In comparison, about 3,000 more people voted in the Sarasota Public Hospital Board election.
But a similar undervote was not recorded in other counties that voted in the District 13 race.

[Lasher]

15. What I have offered is RCP's view. Others' differ.

Please see my reply #14 upthread. Challenges and subsequent recounts are beyond the scope of the message I meant to convey, but are certainly welcome topics of discussion as far as I'm concerned.

[BeFree]

29. Pre-election polls FL13

Average polls               Expected               
    Early       Latest         NOV.7                          
                                                              
                                                              
                       Dem  GOP          Dem GOP      Dem GOP 
 
49  47            49   47     51.4  48.6       

[texpatriot2004]

10. k & R for exposure nm

[9119495]

13. If Jefferson wins the run off in LA, will the Dems impeach him to

show "there is a new sheriff in town?"

[Lasher]

17. My personal opinion is that Jefferson's headed for the slammer

And if you will grant me this assumption, he can not long continue to serve. Therefore I'm hoping that he doesn't win in the December runoff.

[geek tragedy]

22. I believe there's another Democrat in that race.

Party should line up behind the good Dem.

[Lasher]

23. Yes, the other Democrat is Karen Carter.

Let's hope she wins.

[all.of.me]

18. Wilson/Madrid

They are counting the provisional and in-lieu ballots. Yesterday I read they would have a final count by Friday, but here is the updated article from The New Mexican out of Santa Fe.

http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/51849.html

[Lasher]

20. Thanks for the heads-up

The hand-wringing is not over yet, is it? It took a lot of alcoholic beverages and recreational pharmaceuticals to get me past the Virginia Senate race. Looks like I'd better stock up.

:silly:

I can't believe we took the House and the Senate!! :headbang:

[question everything]

21. I hope that Jefferson loses

otherwise he will be an ugly stain on us after the corruption issue was, apparently, an important factor in winning.

Sure, everyone is innocent until proven guilty but when you are in the public eye, perception is a important as the real facts. And keeping thousands of dollars in your freezer will not play in Peoria.

[n2doc]

25. Barrow (GA-12) Claims victory

This is a hold for us, but a good one...
Barrow claims victory


Congressman John Barrow gives a thumbs up sign surrounded by supporters Tuesday night at The Marshall House. (Photo: John Carrington)



Freshman congressman John Barrow closed in on a likely re-election victory Wednesday. With 97 percent of the precincts counted in the 12th Congressional District, the Savannah Democrat led Republican Max Burns by 1,077 votes.

Like a hunter stalking wounded prey, freshman U.S. Rep. John Barrow is slowly closing in on what appears to be an imminent re-election victory.

With 97 percent of the precincts counted in the 12th Congressional District the Savannah Democrat led Republican Max Burns by 1,077 votes. Barrow had 50.4 percent of the vote; Burns, 49.6 percent.

Both campaigns conceded that the final tally will reflect a margin of less than 1 percent, which would trigger a recount if Burns asks for one.

But, since Georgia switched to electronic voting in 2002, no recount has changed the outcome, said Ashley Holt, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office.

"When vote tallies have changed," Holt said, "it typically has been slightly."

more:
http://savannahnow.com/node/176263

[Lasher]

26. Hooray, time to go watch this video for the hundredth time today!

You gotta see this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=385&topic_id=4314&mesg_id=4314

:party: :toast: :bounce: :beer: :thumbsup: :hi: :grouphug: :headbang: :woohoo: :applause: :patriot:

I don't think a single Democratic incumbent has lost. I sure hope it stays that way.

[struggle4progress]

30. Provisional ballots may decide Hayes-Kissell race

By Don Worthington
Staff writer

... Overall, Hayes received 61,168 votes and Kissell 60,822.

Still to be counted are provisional ballots ...

Election officials in Cabarrus, Cumberland, Richmond, Scotland and Union counties report at least 1,000 provisional ballots. Elections boards in Mecklenburg and other counties were researching provisional ballots Wednesday.

Provisional ballot results will be added to Tuesday’s tallies on Nov. 17 when local election boards convene to review and certify returns as official ...

http://www.fayobserver.com/article?id=246616

[Lasher]

31. This is NC-8

This one still hasn't been called. Hayes (R) is ahead by 449 votes, what a nail-biter!

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/NC/H/08/