GALLUP: Democrats' Election Strength Evident Across Voter Segments

[jefferson_dem]

November 09, 2006
Democrats' Election Strength Evident Across Voter Segments
Independent support a key to Democratic success

by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll data shows that the Democratic victory in Tuesday's House elections was because of a rising Democratic tide that lifted support in almost all key subgroups. In addition to solid support from their core constituent groups such as liberals, nonwhites, women, urban residents, and older Americans, Democrats also owe a significant debt to independent voters, who tilted strongly in their direction. Whites and those who are married -- groups that usually favor the Republican Party -- were evenly divided in their vote. Democrats did better among rural voters, a change from previous voting patterns.

Opposition to the Iraq war appears to have helped the Democratic cause. Although supporters and opponents of the war voted about equally for the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively, the fact that opponents outnumbered supporters made Iraq a net-plus for Democrats. In general, it appears that Democratic efforts to get out the vote played a significant part in the win, because those who were contacted by Democrats and urged to vote for Democratic candidates strongly supported Democrats, even if they were also contacted by Republicans.

The following breaks down the vote in the 2006 congressional elections among likely voters in Gallup's Nov. 2-5 poll, according to key political, issue, and demographic groups.

Vote by Party ID

A major factor in the Democratic Party's strength this election was the solid support for its candidates among political independents. According to Gallup's final pre-election poll, a 55% majority of independents (who comprise 27% of the "likely voter" pool) planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while only 38% planned to support the Republican. This represents a change from the last midterm election four years ago, when independents were more closely divided in their preferences: 46% voted Democratic and 43% voted Republican.

<SNIP>

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/Default.aspx?ci=25399&VERSION=p

[MrBlueSky]

1. Hey Jefferson_Dem!

Dear Jefferson_Dem:

I don't know about you... but...

I feel much safer today than I did as recently as Tuesday morning.

I feel like a 28 kg <about 50 lb> weight has been removed from my shoulders...

I feel like the ulcer-causing wrench in my gut has relaxed

AND ALL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE ELECTION DAY 1994!!

[calimary]

10. I understand that one, too. Welcome to DU!

It does feel like a very large weight has been lifted. I've spent the last six years waking up every morning feeling like a hostage in a strange land. That ended with these election results - compounded by what appears to be a surprising lack of stomach to fight or challenge this, on the part of the defeated GOP. It's proof of what a profound change a huge majority of voters wanted - and demanded.

Some DUer here, long ago, said that what was needed during one of these election cycles was for the bad guys to get the snot beaten out of them. I think that's what's happened here. It's why george allen gave up without a fight. It's why you haven't seen a lot of republi-CONS bellowing and running to court and being loud and obnoxious. They seem, to a noticeable extent, willing to accept their fate - probably because the voters spoke too loudly and massively to ignore. Hell, even limbaugh is yammering on about feeling "liberated" because he's sick of carrying water for these guys (REALLY difficult to get my mind around that one). Their arrogance and defiance and in-yer-face swaggering is as gone as bush's own. They're genuinely shocked-and-awed. And thoroughly chastened. And what's bad for them is GREAT for the rest of us!

But also, it's still election week. Ask me again when they "come to their senses" and decide to be arrogant, swaggering, lying, in-yer-face, my-way-or-the-highway assholes again. I can't believe bush is really gonna just suddenly and magically reform and become kinder and gentler and more cooperative, and share power willingly. OR do anything that benefits anyone else outside his own cronies and his own base of the have's and have more's. I believe souls CAN be saved. Just not sure he and some of his pals actually have them.

[JCMach1]

2. Independents and Rural Voters Determined this Election

Also, Hispanics (with the exception of the Florida Cuban Population) were firmly in the Democratic Column.


According the poll, Dems and Repugs walked in lockstep with their parties.

The Dems won the Rural areas by the same % as the Urban areas!!! That's an amazing turnaround.



THIS IS CONFIRMATION OF HOWARD DEAN'S STRATEGY FOLKS!!!! MANY PEOPLE HELPED WIN THIS ELECTION, BUT IT WAS HIS STRATEGY THAT PAID OUT THE FINAL DIVIDENDS...

[Upfront]

4. Rural Areas

Thank you Howard Dean. The man just makes good sense and he gets it. I am so glad we have this man on our side.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. That number is way off in the rurals

First of all, take all these numbers for what they are, a pre-election poll. This is not exit polling.

Notice the rural sample Gallup is using, a mere 191 voters. The 55% is garbage. The House nationwide exit poll indicated we did much better among rurals, but lost narrowly. I think we got 48%, or something like that. It wasn't close to our numbers in urban areas. We won the suburban vote by 50-48, if I remember correctly.

[fiorello]

3. Link to other exit poll data from the House race

I posted details here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2661811

[VP505]

5. Don't forget

the younger voters, it seems that they turned out to vote in numbers we haven't see before.

[bread_and_roses]

6. And don't forget Labor

from http://www.aflcio.org/issues/politics/labor2006/

< Union households voted 74 percent to 26 percent for Democratic candidates—and union members made up one in four voters. In key battleground states, union members voted 76 percent to 24 percent for Democrats.>

[ProgressiveEconomist]

8. IMO union organizing is a potential source of future Democratic votes

few political analysts have considered. New union movements like SEIU's "Purple Ocean" may be a future Democratic Party power base, if only they can develop a winning formula for uniting tens of millions of people around common economic and political interests that have been ignored for decades. See http://www.purpleocean.org .

That unions still supplied a quarter of the vote in 2006, after decades of sharp declines in union membership, is simply astounding to me.

[Swagman]

7. I don't think Americans realise yet how this win

is resonating around the world. Here in Australia similar minded people are being invigorated that Americans have chosen the right path.

I truly thought this election would be rigged but democracy has triumphed. The crooks and liars who have used government ofice for their own ends should be shaking in their shoes.

Well done America-we salute you !!