PREDICTIONS SCORECARD - who predicted correctly, and who didn't?

[greeneyedboy]

PREDICTIONS
WHO GOT IT WRONG?
Paging
- Dick Morris: http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/10/31/112842.shtml?s=lh">"GOP will hold both houses." - SORRY, WRONG!
- Mark Crispin Miller: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-crispin-miller/how-to-preempt-a-novemb_b_25234.html">"the Bush Republicans will certainly succeed" - NOPE!
and everybody else who so confidently predicted how things would turn out--and were wrong about it. What are they saying now?

WHO GOT IT RIGHT?
- http://www.cookpolitical.com">Charlie Cook
- http://www.mydd.com">Chris Bowers, Matt Stoller, et al. at mydd.com got it pretty close to correct, by looking at FACTS and not fears or wishes.
- http://glenngreenwald.blogspot.com/">Glenn Greenwald
who else got it right?

post here--preferably with links to the predictions if you can find them.

let's remember this next time we're reading predictions about '08, etc.

[DCal]

1. Rothenberg Political Report was very close:

5-7 seats in Senate, with 6 most likely and 30-36 seats in the House (revised downward from 34-40 seats).

Novak was too conservative as usual, saying the Dems would only gain 20 seats in the House.

[longship]

2. Tom at Election Predictions has a scorecard

Election Predictions is run by Tom, a high school student from PA (I think). He pretty much nailed it in his prediction.

He has a score card at the top of his page.

As usual, Charlie Cook was the top of the heap, with Tom a close second.

[greeneyedboy]

3. thanks for the link. that's a good scorecard.

i just want us all to remember this next time, and not start believing people like Morris or (of all people) Rove about how elections are going to turn out.

[rpannier]

4. Stephanie Miller

Got it correct

[SteppingRazor]

5. CQ, Cook and Stu Rothenberg all gave themselves a lot of tossups...

Larry Sabato did a really good job for not having any tossups. From my blog:

http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/


Just for the record, here's what everyone has said:

Guru_______________________Senate_______________House of Representatives
Congressional Quarterly_______48-48, 4 tossups_________212-199, 24 tossups
Cook Political Report__________49-49, 2 tossups_________223-197, 15 tossups
Electoral-vote.com____________51-49__________________241-193, 1 tossup
Stu Rothenberg______________51-49___________________223-196, 16 tossups
Larry Sabato_________________51-49___________________232-203
Doomed Generation___________50-50___________________227-208


Surprisingly, I turned out to be more conservative than all of the heavy hitters. Gives me hope for a bright future.

[featherman]

6. I did okay... verbally to my brother 30 House, 6 Senate but on the website

Predict 06 scorecard, I stuck to the Senate prediction and got very generous with the House - 45 pickups

In my defense I was stretching it a bit in the hopes of a bigger wave and lost such races as Madrid-Wilson (still in doubt), Jennings in FL (ditto), against Schmidt and Pryce in OH, for Massa in New York, Trauner-Cubin, Darcy Burner in WA, etc.

I was correct with Pombo, Ryun, and Northup losing, however, which was not the consensus.

So a mixed bag. Here is my scorecard from Predict 06

http://predict06.com/people/profile/730?filter=House

[yellowcanine]

7. I had 40 House seats and 7 Senate seats so I was too optimistic.

I really thought Ford was going to pull Tennesee out because I thought the negativity would hurt Corker more. I actually thought VA was a more likely loss for us. Oh well. On the house seats, I knew all along it was a WAG so I am not fretting that one too much.

[Ediacara]

8. I did at uselectionatlas

I predicted the correct Senate pickups, and the correct range in the House.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2006/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2316

[NJ Democrats]

9. I had 25-40 House, 6 Sen and 9 Gov

So I did well