so is it Allen v. Warner in 2008?

[onenote]

Not for President as some thought, but for Senator in Virginia? THere is a lot of speculation going around the state that if Warner retires (which is assumed to be the case), Allen might make a run at getting back into the Senate. It will be interesting, because a number of Virginia repubs have their eye on Warner's seat and I'm not sure that they would all graciously step aside for Allen. On the other hand, Allen has more name recognition and an statewide campaign infrastructure that none of the other repubs would have.

Warner dropped out of the presidential sweepstakes, but there has been speculation that he might be persuaded to run for the Senate seat in 2008. I doubt it, but if he did, its likely he would take the seat no matter who the repubs put up.

[KingFlorez]

1. I'm sure Allen wouldn't run

He's not a viable candidate statewide anymore since losing this Senate race.

[onenote]

2. he lost by 7000 votes. I don't know that he's not viable

[rpannier]

4. Against Warner

he's not viable.

[MidwestTransplant]

8. I agree. Viable but not against Warner. Warner would beat the Macaca out of him.

[onenote]

11. I agree he'd lose against warner

Indeed, I said so in my post. But so would any other virginia repub that might run, imho. The current lieutenant governor would be one possibility, Tom Davis is another whose name has been mentioned. Frankly, I doubt that either one of them could do any better than Allen against Warner. ANd if its not clear that Warner is going to run, I would imagine that Allen would be thinking seriously about giving it a shot, since its not clear who the Democrats would run against him.

[rpannier]

12. Agreed

If Warner doesn't run Allen has got to be a front runner.
7000 votes is nothing.
A lot can change in a couple of years.

I think he'd wait to see who was running in both primaties before he'd make that decision.

Who knows, he might find work with the scrub admin or become a propagandist on faux

[rep the dems]

3. It's possible, but if Allen couldn't beat Webb then he probably

can't beat Warner. Nothing against Webb, but I think Warner is more popular in Virginia than he is. And Warner may want to go back to being Governor in 2009.

[Va Lefty]

5. Jim "No Car Tax" Gilmore vs. Mark Warner

[lanlady]

24. Gilmore is gone and forgotten

I think he returned to law practice in Richmond after spending a few tumultous months as RNC chairman a few years back.

[Infinite Hope]

6. I wonder if Allen will now renovate his home to resemble the White House

Seems to be the trend.

[AlamoDemoc]

7. Judging from Felix's defeat press conference today....I guess he'll be running Warren's seat in 2008

[BruceMcF]

10. Oh, I hope so ...

... he sure was trying to stay on the good side of Senator Warner, and I think that Mark Warner cleans his clock.

[benddem]

9. Someone said

on DU I think...that Allen was really bored with the Senate and looking forward to the Presidency. Gee if he is bored that easily he has no business being Pres.

[Eric J in MN]

20. Kos of "The Daily Kos" has quoted George Allen as saying

...he was bored with being a Senator.

I don't think George Allen will feel like running for office again within 2 years. Maybe he'll run for another office eventually, but I doubt within 2 years.

[David__77]

13. He doesn't think he's done, but the GOP is probably done with him.

He conceded because he had ulterior motives, otherwise he'd go down screaming and kicking. He could run in two years, but he'd probably lose. Let's keep our eyes on him and build up that dossier.

[davidwparker]

14. M. Warner for senate in 2008 would be a great idea.

[Little Star]

15. A bigot can't change overnight....

Hopefully a few cameras will catch him being exactly who he is! Again!!

[Penndems]

16. No. It'll be Mark Warner vs. Tom Davis, if Senator Warner decides to retire.

n/t

[onenote]

17. I doubt Davis can get the nomination

And I have my doubts as to whether Mark Warner will run. Its possible, but by no means a given.

As for Davis, who I know pretty well, his reputation as a moderate (not terribly well deserved) will ill-serve him amongst down state repubs. Northern Virginia and much of the rest of the state might as well be different countries. Now, its true that Tom has abominable record on abortion rights, which will help him with statewide repubs, but he voted for embryonic stem cell research, which is a big no-non amongst the Falwell/Robertson crowd that has a lot of sway in Virginia. He only gets a "C" rating from the NRA and only a 66 percent rating from the Christian Coalition. His support in Northern Virginia is fading - in his own district he faded from 82.9% of the vote in 2002 to 60.25 in 2004 to 55.45 this week, even though his district was reshaped to push it further west (assumed to be more conservative) and to give up portions of Arlington County (presumed to be more liberal).

In other words, Tom is stuck: he's too conservative for a lot of Northern Virginia and too moderate for the rural, deep red portions of the state.

[Penndems]

18. Excellent analysis, onenote

Never liked Davis, and I loathe his idiot wife. My vote Tuesday was proudly cast for Andy Hurst.

[onenote]

21. its too bad Andy didn't have the money

to really get out the message about Tom's positions on abortion, his crazy effort to issue a subpoena to Terry Schiavo, etc etc.

[lanlady]

23. I didn't receive one piece of campaign lit from Hurst

Every day my mailbox filled up with multiple glossy leaflets from Tom Davis attacking Hurst as EXTREMIST! TOO EXTREME FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA! A LIBERAL LAWYER BORN IN NEW JERSEY, HEAVEN FORFEND! But Hurst didn't have the $$ to fight back. Next time, maybe, we can convince Howard Dean to extend the 50-state strategy to our little corner of the world.

[lanlady]

22. you're absolutely right

Davis is not in a good place. He's a kind of transitional figure -- tries to bridge the gap between old South and new. But I don't see how he could get that to work in his favor, especially against a Mark Warner candidacy.

I think Webb's victory will convince Warner to run for Senate in 08.

(By the way, it surprised me that Hurst, an unknown, got as much as 45% in VA-11, even after Davis filled up our mailboxes with attack-dog literature against him.)

[SaveElmer]

19. Warner has also expressed interest in being Governor again...

That election is in 2009...

[foo_bar]

25. Allen's finished in politics

Losing an election is one thing, but losing a "safe" Senate seat means your political career is kaput. If you can't win a statewide race with all the perks of incumbency, chances are your political career peaked a long time ago. When's the last time you heard the words "Al D'Amato", "Lauch Faircloth", or "Harris Wofford"?

[onenote]

26. poor examples - Allen faces a much easier road to the 2008 nomination

D'Amato was clobbered -- he lost by a 54-44 margin. Not the same as a 7000 vote loss.
While the Faircloth race was closer, it was still 51-47 with a margin of 83,000 votes.
Wofford's defeat was closer still, but keep in mind that he was 68 years old when he lost in 1994 and there was no PA senate seat up until 1998; it was unlikely he would try a comeback at age 72.

The other, and most important distinction, is that Allen faces an open field. Not only is is there another election in just two years, but the seat will be 'open'. In Wofford's case, the next Senate election in PA not only was in four years, but Repub Arlen Specter was running as an incumbent.
Similarly, the next election in NC was four years after Faircloth lost and he was 74 years old at that point. While the seat was open, unlike the situation in Virginia where there is no repub as well known as Allen to challenge for the nomination, Faircloth would have had to wrest the nomination away from Liddy Dole, who probably had better name recognition than Faircloth despite Faircloth's having been previously elected.