CQ Weekly: The '08 Race for the White House Begins

[ProSense]

From CQ Weekly: The '08 Race for the White House Begins

By Craig Crawford Fri Nov 10, 5:24 PM ET

Snip...

The 2008 contest began so early that we already have a dropout. Last month, former Gov. Mark W. Warner of Virginia said he would not be running after making several forays into Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting or big-money states — and earning standing among the pundits as a member of the emerging Democratic field’s top tier.

In Iowa, site of the first nominating test, more than two dozen potential presidential contenders from both political parties—including 10 percent of the current governors and 12 percent of the current Senate—have already racked up more than 100 campaign trips there since the last election. And the pace is picking up in early-primary states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Snip...

Lining up top-shelf strategists and policy experts almost becomes a primary campaign unto itself at this early stage.

Hillary Rodham Clinton is set to inherit the bulk of her husband’s constellation of political stars, James Carville first among them. And John Edwards has won the services of a top rural strategist, Dave “Mudcat” Saunders. But many of the major Democratic operatives, while quietly placing their bets on potential candidates, are hedging those bets until Clinton makes a final decision on whether to run.

Snip...

The Democrats

Evan Bayh — Junior Senator, Indiana

Rationale:: A red-state darling and the son of another Democratic senator from Indiana — Birch Bayh, who sought the presidency in 1976 — this telegenic graduate of Washington’s prestigious St. Albans School is a proven vote-getter in his home state, winning two terms as governor (he served from 1989 through 1996) of a state that Democrats have not carried in a presidential campaign since the Johnson landslide of 1964. A dedicated centrist and a senator since 1999, he served from 2001 to 2005 as chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council, the middle-of-the-road policy group once headed by Bill Clinton and Joseph I. Lieberman. In a blitz of campaigning for Democratic congressional candidates in 25 states this year, he has aggressively positioned himself as a Washington outsider, telling stump audiences, “The gulf between our nation’s capital and the people of our country has never been greater.”

Resources: With more than $10 million in his account, Bayh should have no trouble meeting the cover charge to run a credible nomination campaign. His home state’s relative proximity to all-important Iowa will help him muster a network of grass-roots activists. His frequent trips to Iowa and New Hampshire in the past year have attracted local media interest and favorable comments. And his movie-star looks helped make an instant hit of his profile on the popular Facebook.com, drawing more than 2,000 “friends” to sign up.

Hobby Horse: Stressing fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, job creation and lean government, this is one Democrat who hopes to dodge the liberal label so often pinned on his party brethren in national campaigns. His Capitol Hill voting record shows that, until recently, he sided with President Bush on key issues more often than not.

Hobble Horse: Coming across as a mild- mannered Midwestern deacon is not what presidential campaign audiences expect — and in Washington, he is viewed as an intellectual lightweight. To compensate, Bayh asks Democrats, “Do we want to vent, or do we want to govern?” He might find that primary voters prefer venting.


Joseph R. Biden Jr. — Senior Senator, Delaware

Rationale:: A Democrat who talks the way many people talk, Biden’s vernacular style is frequently on display in his many appearances on radio and television news shows, such as his regular gigs with syndicated host Don Imus. Despite spending more than half of his life in the Senate, the world’s most elite political club — he arrived in 1973, when he was 30 — he seems to have a genuine instinct for middle-class sensibilities. Before the Iraq War, most Americans knew him from a series of bruising Judiciary Committee battles for Supreme Court nominations as he delighted liberals with his ferocious assaults on Republican presidents’ choices. In past years his seat on the Foreign Relations Committee afforded him the chance to travel frequently to Iraq and stand out as one of the most vocal critics of the Bush administration’s handling of Iraq.

Resources: Biden never has faced genuinely difficult re-election races in Delaware, a small state where he has not needed to develop a large financial donor base — at least by presidential campaign standards. This has left him chronically unable to raise enough money to match his White House ambition, which manifested itself in a short-lived run in 1988 and dalliances almost ever since. Still, his popularity with broadcast news producers and personalities gives him a tool for reaching voters that most rivals envy.

Hobby Horse: Despite voting for the 2002 resolution authorizing the Iraq War, Biden dissects the war’s subsequent troubles with relentless passion and a knack for explaining his views in ways that average folks can grasp. And he takes great delight in pointing out that recent White House policy adjustments track his own longstanding suggestions.

Hobble Horse: If Biden could raise big bucks he would have been a serious contender in any of the last several presidential campaigns. And despite his average-Joe demeanor in public, his 33 years in the Senate — along with his reputation as the very model of a long-winded lawmaker — tag him as a creature of Washington. So, too, would the target-rich database of thousands of roll call votes from which opponents could cherry-pick.


Wesley K. Clark — Retired General

Rationale:: In an era of national security concerns that could last a generation, a retired four-star general who has been around the presidential-campaign block should be a most attractive commodity. Now a contributor to the conservative-leaning Fox News Channel, Clark has the opportunity to develop general- election appeal by reaching many voters who distrust the Democrats. Although unsuccessful in what experts deemed a disorganized 2004 bid for the Democratic nomination, he performed well enough to earn the undying loyalty of moderate voters attracted to his background as West Point graduate, wounded Vietnam veteran and
NATO commander during the
Kosovo conflict. Having run before and established modest political credentials, Clark — lacking experience as an elected official — might not be at as much of a disadvantage in a second run.

Resources: Raising $30 million in his first outing on the presidential field was not too shabby, but so far Clark has not begun to put together a serious war chest. Since most of his 2004 campaign funds came from individual donors, thanks to an effective Internet program, it is likely that he could raise plenty of start-up cash quickly if he decides to run again. But the major-league Democratic donors have shied away from him so far.

Hobby Horse: As the only potential contender in either party with such a distinguished military résumé, Clark commands attention as long as voters rate the war in Iraq as a top concern. His experience in handling the Kosovo conflict and helping negotiate the Bosnia peace accord give him unrivaled credibility.

Hobble Horse: Although Clark’s lack of experience holding elective office is a plus to some voters, it is likely to remain a hindrance in the eyes of media and political elites. And he has not effectively used his time since the last campaign to shore up his credentials on the domestic front.


Hillary Rodham Clinton — Junior Senator, New York; former First Lady

Rationale:: Having evolved from Goldwater girl to first lady to player on the mighty
Senate Armed Services Committee, Clinton is better known and more road-tested than any of her rivals and is by far the most politically viable woman ever to ponder the presidency. She is hugging the ideological center to shed the liberal, big-government image she acquired in a failed attempt during her husband’s presidency to radically change the nation’s health care system. But now she is tacking rightward, backing federal legislation against flag burning, refusing to recant her vote in 2002 to authorize the Iraq War — even sounding a distinctly centrist tone on abortion. And she seldom misses an opportunity to emphasize her conservative Republican roots growing up in the Chicago suburbs. A recent HBO documentary about Barry Goldwater prominently featured pictures of her as one of his teen supporters along with interviews of her warmly praising the father of modern conservatism.

Resources: Insiders say she will tap former
Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe, a longtime Bill Clinton fundraiser, to oversee a nomination campaign with a donor budget expected to at least double the record-shattering $100 million that George W. Bush stockpiled in 2000. She has surprised observers by spending so much on her shoo-in second term Senate campaign, however, which means that she will not have as much left over for a presidential bid as she could have — and has fueled speculation that she might not actually run.

Hobby Horse: Clinton is a passionate policy wonk with a think tank to prove it. Founded three years ago as a refuge for Clinton administration alumni, the Center for American Progress has become an emerging force within the Democratic Party, sometimes outdoing the party’s congressional leaders in taking on the Bush administration.

Hobble Horse: A stilted and sometimes boring performer on the stump, she pales in comparison with her husband when it comes to revving up crowds. And she seems cozier with the many Hollywood stars who are flocking to her cause than with the average folks she most needs to win over.


Tom Daschle — former Senate Majority Leader, South Dakota

Rationale:: Call it buyer’s remorse, the notion that a nation once so high on George W. Bush might possibly embrace the man who led the Senate Democrats for a decade but lost his bid for a fourth term in South Dakota in 2004 after going toe-to-toe with the White House throughout the president’s first term. Now that Bush is at rock bottom with voters, perhaps they would see Daschle’s partisan warring — once so successfully targeted as “obstructionist” by the Republicans — as a badge of honor worth a belated reward. Grass-roots Democrats especially might be receptive to repaying a debt to Daschle. And with the pivotal state of Iowa neighboring his home state, he has a chance to play a role akin to that of the martyred favorite son in the first nominating contest of 2008.

Resources: As Democratic leader, Daschle was able to raise $20 million for his 2004 race back home, or $51 on every vote cast. Building the even more substantial war chest required for a presidential campaign could be an uphill struggle without the platform of an influential Capitol Hill post to help attract donors. Despite launching a new political action committee last year and testing the waters with trips to Iowa and New Hampshire last summer, Daschle has not revved up his fundraising sufficiently to convince skeptics that he can get his groove back on the cash front.

Hobby Horse: Daschle can argue that he was out front against Bush when it was hard, when the president was rated so high in the polls that many Democrats ran for the hills. And from his perch at the Washington lobby shop of Alston & Bird LLP, he has an opportunity to maintain access to party fundraisers who favored him in those heady days as a Senate leader.

Hobble Horse: Having pulled out of an expected presidential race last time, when he was at the height of his influence, Daschle could easily be written off as a has-been and a loser. Although a recent stint debating former GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich in California earned them both points for across-the-aisle creativity, it seemed to make both men look very retro.


Christopher J. Dodd — Senior Senator, Connecticut

Rationale:: In an era when liberal Democratic partisans see the party’s move to the ideological middle of the road as caving in to conservatives, Dodd is the true-blue alternative to centrism. Although he voted in favor of authorizing the war in Iraq, Dodd’s liberal credentials are solid. He has a 91 percent support rating from the AFL-CIO and sided with President Bush only one-third of the time on the Senate floor last year. Dodd is a popular speaker in Democratic circles, easy-going and humorous even while hurling verbal spears at the opposing party. Within his robust résumé as a senator since 1981 — and as chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 1995 until 1997 — Dodd has the tools to bolster his case.

Resources: Dodd has raised more than $1 million to fund contributions to Democratic campaigns in the midterm election, but it will take much more to seriously get into the presidential game. Corporate givers are not fond of his longstanding opposition to their pet projects, such as restricting shareholder and class action lawsuits. Still, his home state is home to many wealthy givers, and his politics should appeal to the Hollywood money crowd.

Hobby Horse: Although he’s a liberal, he is a pragmatist known for cutting deals at the last minute to shape legislation that he opposes more to his liking. In 2005, for instance, he gave in to Republicans on a bill to restrict class action lawsuits after winning concessions from them.

Hobble Horse: Another New England liberal might not be the ticket Democrats are looking for after walking the plank in 2004 with John Kerry of Massachusetts. And Republicans in Florida would have a field day with his strong support for opening up relations with Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.


John Edwards — former senator, North Carolina; 2004 vice-presidential nominee

Rationale:: As one of the few political figures on the national stage who routinely talks about fighting poverty, Edwards was a natural for the debate on helping the impoverished citizens of the Gulf states after Hurricane Katrina hit a year ago. His come-from-nothing personal story — the first in his family to go to college, he became a multimillionaire personal-injury trial lawyer before his election to the Senate from North Carolina in 1998 — makes him the genuine article when it comes to appealing to the middle class. One of the most popular speakers on the Democratic chicken-dinner circuit, Edwards is keeping a high profile outside Washington. He impressed Beltway insiders weary with Democratic waffling on the Iraq War when he wrote a Washington Post op-ed last year plainly stating that he was wrong to vote for authorizing the war while in the Senate.

Resources: Edwards raised $2.5 million for his One America Committee in the 2006 election cycle, funding a full-time staff and other expenses for one of the most aggressive PACs of the presidential wannabes. As happened at the outset of his 2004 run for the Democratic nomination, his seed money — nearly $1 million — comes from lawyers, presumably drawn to Edwards’ own background. Broadening that donor base will be a major objective for him.

Hobby Horse: Edwards is all but living in Iowa, where a poll last June showed him in first place, ahead of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Iowa insiders say he has natural appeal in the state — the Des Moines Register endorsed him in 2004 — and might have won the presidential caucus if he had maintained a stronger grass-roots organization.

Hobble Horse: Washington’s political insiders tend to dismiss Edwards as a poor performer on the 2004 national ticket who came across as a lightweight in the debate with Vice President Dick Cheney and could not even help carry his home state of North Carolina.


Russ Feingold — Junior Senator, Wisconsin

Rationale:: The ultimate insider-acting-like-an-outsider, Feingold often breaks ranks with his party and sometimes the entire Senate. The campaign finance overhaul enacted in 2002 over the objections of the leadership in both parties is known as the McCain-Feingold law. Perhaps the most uncompromising liberal in the Senate, Feingold’s name appears as the only dissenter in the occasional Senate roll call. His lone-ranger status forever endeared him to civil libertarians in 2001, when he cast the single vote in the Senate against the counter-terrorism law dubbed the Patriot Act — and did so just six weeks after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. More recently, party leaders refused to even seek a vote on his resolution to censure Bush for ordering “warrantless” surveillance.

Resources: Even Democratic Party insiders grumble that Feingold goes too far in spurning the campaign finance system by refusing to accept most forms of outside money, even before McCain-Feingold took effect. Still, he has managed to raise more than $2 million for his presidential exploration fund, most of it from individual donors. The law he helped write could level the playing field to his advantage, as rivals must play by the rules he set.

Hobby Horse: No one in the presidential field for both parties has a better track record for advocating clean government, even when his stands irritate his own party’s leaders. Voters cynical about corruption in Washington should find him to be a refreshing exception and tireless champion.

Hobble Horse: Feingold’s social liberalism — he opposes the death penalty and supports gay marriage — delights his loyal followers, but it could be a devastating target in a general election and severely limit his reach into middle America. He didn’t help matters by once referring to Greenville, Ala., as a place of “check-cashing stores and abject trailer parks.”


Al Gore — former Vice President; 2000 presidential nominee

Rationale:: Revenge-minded Democrats could have a champion in Gore if they want a do-over of the 2000 presidential election, which many believe he actually won. After wandering in the wilderness after that bitter loss, Gore re-emerged to popular acclaim as George W. Bush was tanking in the polls. It is tough to discount his claims that the United States would not be mired in Iraq if he had become president. And he restored some of the old luster by starring in a critically acclaimed film, “An Inconvenient Truth,” alerting audiences to the dangers of global warming. While once rejecting any notion of another race, Gore has recently cracked the door open a bit. Party insiders believe that he will definitely run if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton opts out.

Resources: Gone are the heady days when Gore, as the two-term incumbent vice president under Bill Clinton, raised well above $100 million for his second presidential campaign. (He first ran in 1988, the year he turned 40, when he was a freshman senator from Tennessee.) Four years ago, when he toyed with another try, many of his financial backers abandoned him, a major factor in his final decision to sit out the 2004 campaign. If Gore joined the 2008 field, associates say he would shun the big bucks — out of necessity — and try to make it an asset by running as an outsider.

Hobby Horse: Global warming and the environment enthuse Gore like no other topic, although some observers note that he failed to make those issues much of a priority while he was vice president. On the Iraq War, he parted with Bush and most congressional Democrats in vehemently opposing the invasion early on.

Hobble Horse: Endorsing Howard Dean for president in 2003 was a sign to some Democratic insiders that Gore had simply lost his way, reducing his appeal to the party’s fringe elements. And his global warming obsession is not viewed as a big enough platform to revive a presidential bid.


John Kerry — Junior Senator, Massachusetts; 2004 presidential nominee

Rationale:: The preferences of a few counties in southern Ohio cost Kerry the electoral votes that would have made him president last time. Since he came so close against an incumbent, he could put it over the top in a race for an open seat in the White House — especially considering that, since the 2004 election, the country has turned against Bush on the war in Iraq. Battle-worn from that race, the 22-year senator from Massachusetts says he has learned crucial lessons in how to run against Republicans. Primarily, he vows to fiercely defend attacks, evidenced by his initial refusal to apologize last week when Bush assailed him for joking that young Americans must get educated or “get stuck in Iraq.” Instead, Kerry counterattacked, calling the president’s aides hacks who are “willing to lie.” He apologized for the gaffe the next day.

Resources: Money is the least of Kerry’s problems. He raised nearly $350 million for his last presidential campaign and nearly $6 million in the 2006 cycle for his political action committee, Keeping America’s Promise. His personal wealth, mostly from the fortune of his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, came in handy in his first national run, when he infused his Iowa caucus campaign with his family money in the final days and eked out a win that propelled him toward the nomination.

Hobby Horse: Kerry has determinedly used his Senate platform to extend his campaign against President Bush and fuel another presidential bid. He turned much of his 2004 campaign policy agenda into a legislative agenda. Just a few weeks after that election, for instance, he retooled his campaign health proposals into the first bill that he introduced.

Hobble Horse: Last week’s imbroglio over what Kerry himself termed a “botched joke” — which, to many, appeared to suggest that American soldiers are uneducated — was yet another reminder to Democrats of how clumsy he can be on the stump. It forced him off the campaign trail as fearful Democratic candidates canceled his appearances.


Barack Obama — Junior Senator, Illinois

Rationale:: Right now he holds one of the hottest cards in American politics, his initial flirtation with a 2008 campaign generating so much enthusiasm that media pundits have labeled the nation beset with “Obama fever.” With his deep baritone voice and Lincolnesque physicality, he has
Oprah Winfrey swooning and Democrats cheering, attracting massive audiences on a White House exploration itinerary thinly disguised as a book tour. Although Obama once flatly ruled out a presidential bid so early into his first Senate term, on NBC’s “Meet the Press” last month he acknowledged that he could well change his mind. On paper it would seem much too early in his career for such a run, but when you are holding such hot cards it is tempting to play them.

Resources: Anyone who can stir the waves as he has done usually finds that the money flows in. He raised $15 million for what was a cakewalk 2004 Senate campaign and more than $4 million this year for a federal political action committee that presumably would become his presidential exploration fund. Obama’s biggest PAC contributors come from organized labor, and it seems he delivers, already earning a 100 percent support rating from the AFL-CIO for his Senate votes.

Hobby Horse: Obama has captivated the imagination of baby boomers in an ironic way, by arguing in his new book, “The Audacity of Hope,” that it is time for American politics to move beyond them and the polarizing issues of their growing-up years in the 1960s. His forward-looking message clearly resonates with many Americans.

Hobble Horse: Although many political experts say the country would be open to electing an African-American president (his father is from Kenya, his mother is a white woman from Kansas), it would be a racial gamble for the Democratic Party to nominate only the third black senator since Reconstruction. And his far-from-ripe career on the national stage, while evoking memories of a youthful Jack Kennedy, is bound to give pause among some voters.


Bill Richardson — Governor, New Mexico

Rationale:: For starters, ethnicity and geography argue in favor of Richardson, a Latino governor in a battleground state that backed Al Gore in 2000 but George W. Bush in 2004. Add to that his varied Washington experience — 14 years in the House plus four years in the Clinton administration, first as U.N. ambassador and then as Energy secretary — and on paper you have the ingredients for national office. Richardson is a larger-than-life character who is charming on the stump. On policy matters, he is a pragmatist who remains quite popular in his politically fluid state, recently winning kudos for making good on a 2003 campaign promise to save taxpayers $90 million in state budget costs. Governors do well in presidential contests, which is enough of a reason to consider Richardson a player.

Resources: Richardson raised more than $8 million for his bid for a second term as governor this year, a sizable sum in New Mexico politics. And his shoo-in standing in that race has allowed him to spread his money around to other Democrats in the state, always good for earning chits to solidify his home-state base in a presidential campaign. Also, the bulk of his campaign funds come from business interests instead of big labor, a good talking point for any Democrat in a general-election bid.

Hobby Horse: Richardson earned foreign- policy credentials as the ambassador to the United Nations, troubleshooting hot spots from Iraq to North Korea, and he also can emphasize his popular management of New Mexico and tout what is expected to be a lopsided re-election victory.

Hobble Horse: Richardson’s closet is not entirely clean. At a minimum, a presidential bid will again bring to light his brush with the Monica Lewinsky scandal, in which he reportedly offered her a job, and revelations that for years he erroneously claimed to have been drafted as a pitcher by the Kansas City A’s.

Tom Vilsack — Governor, Iowa

Rationale:: Vilsack’s hopes are pinned to a four-letter word: Iowa. As the outgoing governor of the state that has the first presidential nominating contest, he owns the place. Democrats take note that he was the state’s first governor from their party in 32 years. In recent years he has worked hard to broaden his portfolio with a heartland-focused message assailing Washington’s pork barrel spending and arguing for an end to what he derides as corporate giveaways in federal budget and tax policies. He has a strong working knowledge of economics and knows how to appeal to middle class pocketbook worries. His wife, Christie, is a talented politician in her own right and was instrumental in helping John Kerry win the Iowa caucus last time.

Resources: Vilsack raised more than $6 million for his successful 2002 re-election bid, with contributions from business groups edging out labor donors. He has raised a bit more than $2 million for his current political action committee but would need much more to convince party bosses that he can move into the major leagues of fundraising.

Hobby Horse: As one of a handful of governors in the race from either party, Vilsack is well-positioned to run against Washington at a time when voters seem disgusted by corruption in the nation’s capital. And he intends to make his views of the excesses of federal spending one of his primary targets in a presidential campaign.

Hobble Horse: Another Iowan, Sen. Tom Harkin (news, bio, voting record), demonstrated in his 1992 presidential bid that being a favorite son might be enough to win the state’s nominating caucus, but it was much discounted by the national media and proved not to be anything close to a momentum generator for the New Hampshire primary.

More…

[Clark2008]

1. Regarding Clark:

Hobble Horse: Although Clark’s lack of experience holding elective office is a plus to some voters, it is likely to remain a hindrance in the eyes of media and political elites. And he has not effectively used his time since the last campaign to shore up his credentials on the domestic front.

Well, Craig, actually, he has, but since you and the other pundits continue to ignore him, you don't know that.

He's campaigned in nearly all 50 states with congressional and senatorial candidates on issues ranging from social security to education to tax reform.

At least Craig mentioned him, which is more than most of these beltway pundits do. :eyes:

[rpannier]

2. First

I want a law preventing anyone from announcing they will run or the media from posting these hypothesis until Feb 1 after an election is over.
This is absolutely asinine that four days after an election they start hypothesizing who the nominee for President will be.
Their pick is almost always wrong anyway because the press doesn't actually talk to people. They create focus groups and talk to beltway insiders whose idea of the heartland is flying over the states of Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa in an airplane.

Second, let's get real here...Tom Daschle...please, Joe Lieberman had a better chance in 04 than tommy does is 08 or 12 or 16.
Daschle was an embarrassing joke as majority leader of the Senate and a few debates against gnewt gingrich isn't gonna change that.

Third. joe 'I plagiarize as much as ann 'the shrill voice of treason' coulter" biden. He was made a fool out of in '88 and forced to withdraw from the race.
He's another hack

Fourth and final, Vilsack. My God. DLC-Vilsack. My guess is he'd hire shrum and wage a campaign of "Let the republikkans lie about me, abuse me, kick me, humiliate me and I'll just say nothing about it."

[RestoreGore]

3. Al Gore Is In a League All By Himself...

And way too good of a man to have his soul corrupted by this bs political system. Besides, the DLC is going to make sure one of their own gets it again anyway. Nothing has really changed, and Democrats don't even seem to want to face the fight for the soul of their own Party. And since Mr. Gore has already stated MANY times that he has no plans of running, I really wish he wouldn't be included in these lists while he is doing something good for this world regarding the climate crisis. Unless he changes his own mind and suddenly doesn't believe this process is toxic, to include him in such lists only pumps up unsubstantiated speculation that in my opinion has taken too much precedence over the importance of what he is doing now, which didn't seem to get much discussion on any of these forums until his movie came out.