62 GOP-held House seats: Actual results vs. Forecast Model : TIA

[mom cat]

62 GOP-held House seats: Actual results vs. Forecast Model 
 
 
TruthIsAll    
 
FRAUD SCENARIO ANALYSIS					

62 GOP-held  House seats: Actual results vs. Forecast Model
The current scorecard: 231D-197R with 7 seats undecided.

The model projects that the Democrats would win 41 of the 62
GOP seats,
assuming ZERO fraud. They won 29 with 7 races still undecided.


Model Assumptions:					
Uncounted (spoiled, discraded, etc) ballots: 3% of total
votes, 75% of them
Democratic. This is based on the historical evidence that
uncounted votes
are primarily from Democratic minority precincts.

Switched votes: 4% of Democratic votes are shifted to the
Republicans.

Fraud      Seats Won  	
Scenario:    Dem	GOP		
No Fraud 	41	21		
Fraud	      25	37		

Given the fraud scenario, the Democrats could expect to win 25
GOP-held
seats (227D-208R), assuming they won all Democratic-held
seats. The fraud
model assumptions are assumed for all 62 districts. 

These are the 15 districts most likely for fraud:
AZ-1, CA-11, CO-4, CT-4,
FL-13, FL-24, IL-6, IL-10, KY-4,
NM-1, NC-8, OH-1, OH-6, OH-15, PA-8

The Democrats scored upsets in NH-2, PA-4, IA-2, KS-2, MN-1.
The GOP won upsets in FL-13, OH-1, OH-2, OH-15, IL-6, IL-10,
IL-13 CT-4,
PA-6.
					
The follwing table depicts the relationship between the number
of races
stolen from the Democrats and the percentage of votes
switched.

Switched
Votes% 0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Races	 0	5	9	15	16	19	22	23	27	30	34	36

Because of the Democratic landslide, the GOP needed to switch
approximately
11% of Democratic votes (1 in 9) to reduce a Democratic pickup
by 36 seats.
They needed to switch 17% of Democratic votes (1 in 6) to
reduce a 40-seat
Dem pickup. They could not overcome the Democratic tsunami; it
would have
been too obvious since the election was an unprecedented
blowout. The model
indicates that they stole about 16 seats, assuming the fraud
scenario. 

Uncounted and switched votes resulted in a 6% decrease in
Democratic
margin, reversing the vote share from 51.3D-48.7R to
48.7D-51.3R.

It looks like the vote-switching algorithm was similar to
2004. Kerry's
51-48 exit poll margin was almost exactly reversed in the
recorded vote
count.

			
		      NoFraud	Dem       Fraud            Actual 	Forecast
		Dem	GOP	Win	Dem	GOP	Und	Switch	Switch
	Avg	51.3	48.7	29	48.7	51.3	3	7	16
									
1	AZ 1	50.6	49.4		48.2	51.8		yes	yes
2	AZ 5	51.6	48.4	yes	49.1	50.9			yes
3	AZ 8	56.6	43.4	yes	54.0	46.0			
4	CA 4	47.2	52.8		44.9	55.1			
5	CA 11	51.6	48.4	yes	49.1	50.9			yes

6	CA 50	43.4	56.6		41.2	58.8			
7	CO 4	50.8	49.2		48.4	51.6		yes	yes
8	CO 5	46.2	53.8		43.9	56.1			
9	CO 7	58.8	41.2	yes	56.1	43.9			
10	CT 2	51.0	49.0	yes	48.6	51.4			yes

11	CT 4	54.0	46.0		51.5	48.5			
12	CT 5	52.6	47.4	yes	50.1	49.9			
13	FL 13	51.4	48.6		48.9	51.1		yes	yes
14	FL 16	54.6	45.4	yes	52.0	48.0			
15	FL 22	51.2	48.8	yes	48.7	51.3			yes

16	FL 24	50.2	49.8		47.8	52.2	yes	yes	yes
17	ID 1	54.8	45.2		52.2	47.8			
18	IL 6	57.6	42.4		54.9	45.1			
19	IL 10	51.6	48.4		49.1	50.9		yes	yes
20	IL 14	45.6	54.4		43.3	56.7			

21	IL 19	42.6	57.4		40.5	59.5			
22	IN 2	51.8	48.2	yes	49.3	50.7			yes
23	IN 8	55.4	44.6	yes	52.8	47.2			
24	IN 9	50.8	49.2	yes	48.4	51.6			yes
25	IA 1	54.4	45.6	yes	51.8	48.2			

26	IA 2	49.2	50.8	yes	46.8	53.2			
27	KS 2	na	na	yes	na	na			
28	KY 3	54.4	45.6	yes	51.8	48.2			
29	KY 4	52.8	47.2		50.3	49.7			
30	MN 1	48.8	51.2	yes	46.4	53.6			

31	MN 2	46.8	53.2		44.5	55.5			
32	MN 6	47.4	52.6		45.1	54.9			
33	NV 3	48.0	52.0		45.7	54.3			
34	NH 1	46.6	53.4	yes	44.3	55.7			
35	NH 2	50.2	49.8	yes	47.8	52.2			yes

36	NJ 7	49.6	50.4		47.2	52.8			
37	NM 1	54.8	45.2		52.2	47.8	yes		
38	NY 3	47.0	53.0		44.7	55.3			
39	NY 19	51.4	48.6	yes	48.9	51.1			yes
40	NY 20	56.0	44.0	yes	53.4	46.6			

41	NY 24	56.0	44.0	yes	53.4	46.6			
42	NY 26	48.4	51.6		46.0	54.0			
43	NY 29	56.0	44.0		53.4	46.6			
44	NC 8	52.8	47.2		50.3	49.7	yes		
45	NC 11	53.4	46.6	yes	50.9	49.1			

46	OH 1	51.6	48.4		49.1	50.9		yes	yes
47	OH 2	52.2	47.8		49.7	50.3		yes	yes
48	OH 10	47.8	52.2		45.5	54.5			
49	OH 15	56.6	43.4		54.0	46.0			
50	OH 18	61.4	38.6	yes	58.6	41.4			

51	OK 5	39.4	60.6		37.4	62.6			
52	PA 4	48.2	51.8	yes	45.9	54.1			
53	PA 6	53.2	46.8		50.7	49.3			
54	PA 7	54.4	45.6	yes	51.8	48.2			
55	PA 8	51.8	48.2	yes	49.3	50.7			yes

56	PA 10	56.0	44.0	yes	53.4	46.6			
57	TX 22	57.6	42.4	yes	54.9	45.1			
58	VA 2	46.6	53.4		44.3	55.7			
59	VA 5	37.4	62.6		35.5	64.5			
60	VA 10	48.6	51.4		46.2	53.8			

61	WA 8	47.4	52.6		45.1	54.9			
62	WI 8	53.4	46.6	yes	50.9	49.1			



	Avg	46.65	45.63	DemWin Actual		
	11/05	Dem	GOP	Prob	Winner	

Group 1: Dems 9, GOP 3, Und 2
						
1	CO 7	54	38	100.0%	Dem	
2	OH 6	58	39	100.0%	Dem	
3	OH 18	53	33	100.0%	Dem
4	IL 6	54	40	100.0%	GOP	
5	TX 22	36	28	100.0%	Dem	

6	AZ 8	53	41	100.0%	Dem	
7	OH 15	53	41	100.0%	GOP	
8	NY 20	53	42	100.0%	Dem	
9	NY 24	53	42	100.0%	Dem	
10	NY 29	53	42	100.0%	Und	

11	PA 10	47	38	100.0%	Dem	
12	IN 8	53	43	100.0%	Dem	
13	ID 1	38	34	100.0%	GOP	
14	NM 1	53	44	100.0%	Und	
						

	FRAUD ALERT********************************					

Group 2: Dem 14, GOP 11, Und 2

1	FL 16	48	41	100.0%	Dem	
2	IA 1	49	42	100.0%	Dem	
3	KY 3	52	44	100.0%	Dem	
4	PA 7	52	44	100.0%	Dem	
5	CT 4	51	44	100.0%	GOP	

6	NC 11	48	43	100.0%	Dem	
7	WI 8	51	45	100.0%	Dem	
8	PA 6	49	44	100.0%	GOP	
9	KY 4	45	42	99.8%	GOP	
10	NC 8	48	44	99.8%	GOP	

11	CT 5	46	43	99.6%	Dem	
12	OH 2	48	45	98.8%	GOP	
13	IN 2	50	47	96.8%	Dem	
14	PA 8	50	47	96.8%	Dem	
15	AZ 5	48	46	95.1%	Dem	

16	CA 11	48	46	95.1%	Dem	
17	IL 10	48	46	95.1%	GOP	
18	OH 1	48	46	95.1%	GOP	
19	FL 13	49	47	92.6%	GOP	
20	NY 19	49	47	92.6%	Dem	

21	FL 22	50	48	89.2%	Dem	
22	CT 2	48	47	84.9%	Dem	
23	CO 4	43	44	79.5%	GOP	
24	IN 9	46	46	79.5%	GOP	
25	AZ 1	38	41	73.2%	GOP	

26	FL 24	43	45	58.2%	UND	
27	NH 2	46	47	58.2%	Dem	

	END FRAUD ALERT***************************					

Group 3:  Dem 4, GOP 16, Und 1

1	NJ 7	43	46	34.0%	GOP	
2	IA 2	48	50	20.5%	Dem	
3	MN 1	47	50	10.8%	Dem	
4	VA 10	42	47	7.4%	GOP	
5	NY 26	46	50	4.9%	GOP	

6	PA 4	47	51	3.2%	Dem	
7	NV 3	39	46	2.0%	GOP	
8	OH 10	46	51	1.2%	GOP	
9	MN 6	42	49	0.4%	GOP	
10	WA 8	45	51	0.4%	UND	

11	CA 4	43	50	0.2%	GOP	
12	NY 3	44	51	0.1%	GOP	
13	MN 2	42	50	0.0%	GOP	
14	NH 1	40	49	0.0%	Dem	
15	VA 2	43	51	0.0%	GOP	

16	CO 5	42	51	0.0%	GOP
17	IL 14	42	52	0.0%	GOP
18	CA 50	41	55	0.0%	GOP
19	IL 19	36	53	0.0%	GOP
20	OK 5	37	59	0.0%	GOP
21	VA 5	35	61	0.0%	GOP
		
UNDECIDED RACES:
• Ohio, 15th District: Rep. Deborah Pryce (news, bio, voting
record), a
member of the House Republican leadership, leads Democrat Mary
Jo Kilroy
race by 3,536 votes. Thousands of provisional ballots will be
counted
beginning Nov. 19 — a day later than normal in deference to
the Ohio
State-Michigan football game Nov. 18.

• New Mexico, 1st District: Republican Rep. Heather Wilson
(news, bio,
voting record) led Democrat Patricia Madrid by fewer than
1,500 votes out
of more than 200,000 cast, with about 3,700 ballots remaining
to be
qualified and tallied.

• North Carolina, 8th District: Rep. Robin Hayes (news, bio,
voting
record), a Republican, had a 449-vote lead over Democrat Larry
Kissell.
About 1,500 provisional ballots remained to be counted.

• Ohio, 2nd District: Rep. Jean Schmidt, a Republican who
called decorated
Vietnam veteran Rep. John Murtha (news, bio, voting record) a
coward, was
ahead of Democrat Victoria Wulsin by about 2,300 votes.
Counting
provisional and absentee ballots could take nearly two weeks.

• Connecticut, 2nd District: Democrat Joe Courtney led GOP
Rep. Rob Simmons
by just 66 votes. A recount is to be completed by Wednesday.

In Florida, a recount began Monday in the contest for the seat
Rep.
Katherine Harris (news, bio, voting record) gave up to make
her failed
Senate run. The Associated Press has declared a winner in that
race:
Republican Vern Buchanan, who leads Democrat Christine
Jennings by about
375 votes, or less than 0.02 percent.

• Washington, 8th District: GOP Rep. Dave Reichert led
Democrat Darcy
Burner by about 3,500 votes, but many ballots in this heavily
vote-by-mail
state remained to be counted.


HERE'S A COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION 2004 SITE:
POLLING DATA, ANALYSIS, DISCUSSION
and...
THE EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
http://www.truthisall.net/

Downloads in a minute (4mb)
Easy to use (3 inputs)
Press F9 to run 200 simulations
Pre-election/exit polls
(51 State & 18 National)

A challenge to all those who still believe Bush won:
Use the National Exit Poll 
"How Voted in 2000" demographic
("NatExit" sheet) to come up
with just ONE plausible Bush win scenario. 

Note the feasibility constraint: 
The maximum ratio of Bush 2000 voters to the total 2004 vote
is 39.8%
(48.7mm/122.3mm)

Post the scenario on the Election Forum at
ProgressiveIndependent.com and/or Democratic Undergound.com 



View the original 11/1/04 election model forecast of Kerry
winning
51.63-51.80% of the 2-party vote:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/
 
 
 

[AIJ Alom]

1. Thanks for the info. I'm fascinated by the details in your numbers.

Excellent work to Truth is All.

[mom cat]

2. The numbers are truly remarkable and point to far greater fraud than

we imagined. Even one stolen seat is one too many!

[Roland99]

3. Maybe w/Dems in control in Congress we can get some action on reform!

[Benhurst]

4. Recommended #4

[annabanana]

5. See incident report:

here:
http://www.votersunite.org/electionproblems.asp

[leftchick]

6. thank you!

k&r!!!

[MikeDuffy]

7. May I assume these 62 races were exit polled by some organization?

If so were these exit polls done in a manner that would detect pollster problems (like selection bias) so that they could not be easily dismissed?

[TheBaldyMan]

8. Thank you, Momcat

This has been several DUers' opinion since the election, the Dems would have totally wiped the floor with the Republicans without electoral fraud.

Quite a few responses were of the form, What fraud - have you any proof ? or If that's true why didn't the Republicans just 'press a button' and win it anyway ?

It looks like the model bears out the fraud hypothesis. Thanks again for the post and the links.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

9. I guess some people never get tired of being wrong. n/t

[gasperc]

10. what's your definition of fraud?

the vote counting machines were intentionaly rigged to erase 1 in 9 democratic votes, etc?

fascinating work, the correlations are amazing. have you done 2004 breakdowns by state and congressional district? Can we pinpoint it down ot certain individuals that can be prosecuted?

[Hugin]

11. Yup.

I'm already seeing the... "Dems won so you must be wrong about the fraud go back to sleep" meme
here and in the bulk media.

Thanks TIA and keep up the vigilance.

[texpatriot2004]

12. NM 01 was one of the most likely for fraud and I think it happened

It's still not decided. I believe Madrid won. I hope she keeps fighting.

[bridgit]

k&r'd hon, love me some mom cat...

:kick: :hug:

[savemefromdumbya]

13. interesting

[FogerRox]

14. Yeah they clipped the top off of the Democratic tsunami wave

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

26. Indeed.

We only won two houses of Congress, instead of all three!

[snot]

15. K & R -- nt

[truedelphi]

16. The vigilance is needed n/t

[The Count]

17. It all makes sense now!

I also believe it's this kind of information that Carville is trying to blame on Dean rather than on the thieves.
In any case, it needs to be known and bills passed ASAP to prevent repeats.

[Pab Sungenis]

18. Once again, three easy steps.

HEARINGS on voting irregularities.
STUDIES on how every other democracy gets by with paper ballots and hand counts.
LEGISLATION to prevent this stuff from happening again.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. Agreed. Paper ballots for audits and recounts doesn't interfere with computers for speed.

[stillcool]

19. thank you Momcat...

[In Truth We Trust]

21. K&R Hand Counted Paper Ballots NOW!

[Joe Chi Minh]

22. Now, perhaps, anyone who doubted, will believe that the

percentage figures for Bush in the polls purported to be in the 30s, was sheer fantasy. If the figures they quoted had been in the low 20s, it would have stretched credulity.

It was common sense and the basic understanding that there really is a limit to the capacity for folly of the public at large, not alas, mathematics that told us as much. Heck, the very the idea that people would be daft enough to vote for Bush against Al Gore, after Clinton's legacy, absolutely beggared belief. The US public has been greatly maligned by the lying pundits - whose masters were smart enough to commit wholesale fraud to get their way. Because IT WAS THEIR TURN!!!

But knowing that wasn't worth a cracker, other than to preserve out belief and hope. The facts and figures provided by TIA, on the other hand, ought to be recognised by those in government for what they are: the building blocks upon which the whole Insurance industry is based. To mention just the most obvious.

[jgraz]

23. Sorry to be dense but...

these raw numbers aren't making sense to me. Could some kind soul provide a bit of narrative to clear things up?

[bleever]

24. Here's to all the people who turned out to vote, and got others to.

Karl was all set to call a panel of Republican operatives to examine why the polls were so wrong after the R's defied probability to pull out a win.

Here's to all the people who've worked so hard on election fraud, and here's to you, TIA.

:toast:

[EFerrari]

25. K&R