What will be the main swing state in 2008?

[Tiggeroshii]

It seems as though Ohio will most lkely go Dem this next presidential election, no matter who the candidates are, but nonetheles let's think a bit. Which state will be the one state that will hold the decision of 2008 in it's grips?

[ButterflyBlood]

1. Too soon to tell BUT

I can definitely say it won't be New York, California or Texas.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. I think it depends on the match up. Think about it:

If Bloomberg and Hillary were the nominees(or Hillary and Giuliani), that state wil be a real battleground, because they are both very well known, well liked politicians in New York.

Same thing with California, if two CAlifornians run(or a moderate Republican that appeals to Californians, etc), it could be the same thing.

Like you said though, it's too early really.

[Eurobabe]

2. Maybe VIRGINIA??

[Tiggeroshii]

3. I'll add that

It's a good guess, I think...

[lonehalf]

4. I believe (and voted for) Florida because...

...I think Jeb Bush will run for President.

If we can beat him in Florida we will be a shoo in.

Otherwise, I believe it's Ohio and I don't think Ohio is already won for us.

[dorktv]

6. Arizona? :D

[blondeatlast]

35. Going by this year, I'm guessing we will. Another couple of ballot

propositions to bring OUR voters to the polls and it's ours to lose, IMHO.

[dorktv]

37. We just need a few more people to run all up and down the ticket.

[BlueMO]

7. Missouri

The bellweather state for presidential elections.

[TheJollyNihilist]

8. Gotta be Ohio

nm

[Stinky The Clown]

9. Virginia or Maryland

Virginia because it is the first real crack in the 'solid south' notion.

Maryland, because of the tight connections between the local GOP and the White House/RNC/Rove/Mehlman cabal.

Either, because they're on no one's radar. Maryland because it is 100% paperless Diebold.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. Diebold couldn't help the GOP in 2004 or 2006

Kerry beat Bush there handidly, and Steele lost to Cardin by 10% and Erhlich lost to O'Malley by about 3%-4%. What makes you think that Diebold will matter in 2008?

[left of center]

24. Maryland is solidly blue

That state has been blue for a long time now. It is as blue as a state like New York.

[Stinky The Clown]

32. Lotsa purple in my state of Maryland ......

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MD/S/01/map.html

Check out the election result map for the Senate race. The governor race was even tighter.

Indeed, Dems won up and down the ballot, but we're not the solid blue state most seem to think we are.

[left of center]

34. for all practical purposes, it's a blue state

Ehrlich barely won back in 2002 because he took Baltimore and Howard Counties by wide margins. Since I'm not from Maryland, I'm not sure what the cause for this was. What I do know from other election year results is that Townsend should have lit those counties up light blue!

As a rule though, how Montgomery and Prince Georges counties and Baltimore city go, so goes the state. It doesn't always go blue for statewide office, but neither do liberal states like New York and Massachuesettes.

[On the Road]

10. Just to be Different, I'll Say Missouri

they have the longest history of being a bellweather.

[daveskilt]

11. no swing states in 08 - all blue states

[Mabus]

12. Missouri

It's been a swing state for over a hundred years.

Ohio has often been considered a swing state, particularly during the 2004 election, having voted with the winner in every election since the 1950s except for 1960. The most reliable swing state of the last 100 years has been Missouri which has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1904, save for its support of Adlai Stevenson in 1956. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state

edited to add: Remember how close the Talent-McCaskill match-up was?

[Pyrzqxgl]

22. I think the whole Rocky Mountain and SW region

particularly Colorado, Montana, Arizona, & New Mexico

[Change has come]

29. possibly Nevada

depending on the candidate. I think Clark would do well in all these states.

[Ignacio Upton]

13. Virginia and Colorado will be swing states

Unless we run a shitty candidate like Hillary.

[FrenchieCat]

15. Swing states will be the South West.....Arizona & New Mexico!

Ohio will be a Dem state!

[Leilani]

16. Hawaii!

Ha! Ha!

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas etc.

Democrats have to break out of only concentrating on the States that Kerry was able to win. I would add Arizona except I expect McCain to run.

[chimpymustgo]

36. Tom, you hit the nail on the head. Definitely western states in play...

bull's eye.

[knowledgeispwr]

18. Missouri...

You put CA, NY, and Illinois, but not Missouri? Have you ever watched a Presidential race?

[CatholicEdHead]

19. Minnesota will probably be a swing state in 08

with the GOP convention here. It will also effect Wisconsin being so close.

[snowbear]

21. Oh bull-hockey..

Just because the R-thugs are holding their pathetic little tea party in the Twin Cities won't mean diddly-squat to voters!

Besides... our "Rocky Mountain High" Democratic Convention will blow them out of the water anyway!

Republican Convention -----> :boring: -B- :boring: -O- :boring: -R- :boring: -I- :boring: -N- :boring: -G- :boring:

Democratic Convention ----->

[CatholicEdHead]

27. Not in the urban areas of Mpls/St Paul

But it will have an effect in the outer ring GOP suburbs and many rural ares in southern and western Minnesota. Minnesota is still more purple than it was a few decades ago, NOTHING is a given anymore.

[Generic Brad]

33. Unfortunately, I have to reluctantly agree

For instance, the majority of people in the Twin Cities know Norm Coleman is an opportunistic asshole. Unfortunately, the majority of outstaters still think he is an ok guy. He even had me tricked until he switched parties to coincide with what he perceived as the dominant party.

[tritsofme]

20. I don't know how you can say that about Ohio

Two years is an eternity in politics.

Naturally we expect states like Ohio, PA, and FL to be competitive as they always are.

And depending on the candidates a slew of Western states may be closer than usual as well.

It all depends on the candidates and the political environment of the time, two things we cannot project as of today.

[left of center]

23. Virginia has been shifting left for some time now

I wasn't completely surprised to see my native state turn it's back on Allen. The state had shifted to the right in the 90s because of the shift among rural voters. They've all since crossed over to the Republican Party. The inner suburbs had been slowly moving into the Democratic column, but while the rural shift has plateaued, this shift has yet to reach that point.

The last time Fairfax County voted Republican for President or statewide office was back in 1992 when it voted for Bush Senior. It is now solidly democrat, but now the neighoring counties of Loudon and Prince William are starting to vote Democrat. These two counties voted Kaine for governor and Webb for Senate. Much of this shift is occuring in northern Virginia, but it is doing so on a smaller scale in Henrico County around Richmond, Albemarle County around Charlottesville, and in the Norfolk-Virginia Beach metro region.

Virginia will be competitive in 2008, but by 2012 it could very well be a blue state.

[MODemocrat]

25. Missouri has my vote

It was a miracle that Claire McCaskell knocked out the incumbent, Jim Talent, so I think we will again
be a swing state.:dem: Make Harry S Truman proud.

[progressive_realist]

26. No swing states, because it's not even going to be close.

If you take the states that both Gore and Kerry carried, and then add New Hampshire and Ohio, which seem like guaranteed Democratic pickups in 2008, the Democrats win the election with 272 of the necessary 270 electoral votes. Take a look at the maps here: 270towin

The Republicans not only have to defend some pretty purple states like Iowa and New Mexico, but they have to find a way to put at least one safe Democratic state like Minnesota or Wisconsin into play. Not gonna happen. They're toast.

[CatholicEdHead]

28. I wouldn't call both states "safe"

Yes, overall they still lean blue but Republicans make it close. Who knows what will happen in the next two years? If done correctly then they can be safe states but not if taken for granted.

[progressive_realist]

30. Relatively but not absolutely safe

My point was that the Republicans are entering this campaign season with a severe handicap. Many of their states are vulnerable and very few of ours are (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Hawaii are about it). If I have to pick a single critical battleground state on which this election will hinge, I pick Wisconsin. The Democratic margin of victory has been getting smaller and smaller there, and the Republicans absolutely have to win there if they are to have any hope at all of capturing the Presidency. They are going to pour every available resource into the Iowa--Minnesota--Wisconsin triangle. Unless something dramatic changes, I think that region is where the 2008 election will be decided.

[Alexander]

31. Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, and maybe even Arizona

I keep holding out hope that AZ will turn blue, or even purple, since Clinton won it once, but every time I get my hopes up about this, I'm disappointed.