2008 Metrics: National Polls and Name ID, courtesy of Chris at mydd.com

[jefferson_dem]

This, from www.mydd.com -->

2008 Metrics: National Polls and Name ID
by Chris Bowers, Sun Nov 19, 2006 at 04:35:07 PM EST

Across the five polls, there were only five candidates included in every question: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Gore and Kerry. Looking at the numbers for Democrats and Democratic leaners for each of the five polls, you receive the following average for every candidate:

National Trial Heat Mean
Clinton: 30%
Obama: 20%
Gore: 11%
Edwards: 10%
Kerry: 8%
(Note: the Pew numbers used for this average were two parts Democrats, and one part Independents)

In January of 2008, all of the major candidates will have equal name ID in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. However, right now, that is not the case nationally. According to Qunnipiac's latest national thermometer poll of leading political figures from both parties, here was the national name ID for these five candidates among Democrats and Independents:

National Name ID Average
Clinton: 99%
Gore: 97%
Kerry: 94%
Edwards: 75%
Obama: 47%

Clearly, some candidates are over-performing compared to their current national name ID, and other candidates are under-performing. If the mean trial heat number for each candidate was divided by his or her name recognition number, the results would be as follows:

Known Universe Metric
Obama: 42%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 13%
Gore: 11%
Kerry: 9%

I call this the "known universe" metric because this is the percentage of supporters each candidate is winning within the universe of people who know the candidate well enough to form an opinion about him or her. It is a crude means of normalizing trial heat numbers for name recognition discrepancies. Right now, 42% of Democrats and Democratic leaners who know about Barack Obama are willing to give him their preliminary support for the Democratic nomination. That is clearly a very good position to be in right now.

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http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/11/19/16357/529#commenttop

[NMDemDist2]

1. funny they never add Clark to these polls eh? n/t

[jefferson_dem]

2. Clark was at 3% in the latest Gallup and seems to have trouble garnering more than 4%.

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. I can't tell you how many people I've talked to

who don't know what Clark is up to now, or that he may possibly run for President. It comes up when they see me wear a Clark pin, or we start talking about what I am involved in nowadays.

Gallop listed Clark in a recent poll, but they skipped him completely in a couple before that, even when they listed people like Bayh and Warner, who was being taken very seriously then even though he always polled lower than Clark whenever Clark was added to a poll. I notice many news articles that list people like Vilsack and Richardson as possible candidates, but skip Clark. All of this has a cumulative effect. It's amazing to me that Clark polls as high as he does under the circumstances.

[blm]

4. And by halfway thru the series of Dem debates, it will be Kerry and Clark who

will be dominating the stage. Because, at some point, you actually have to provide REAL answers, and REAL passion for your positions, and have a REAL bearing for commander-in-chief.

Democrats have to show this because they cannot rely on a GOP machine skilled in suppressing and stealing votes like BushInc does.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. When everyone is saying nothing but wonderful things

about you such as is Obama's case, of course you are going to rate so highly.
Meanwhile, I must say Kerry is in very bad shape. I think he will recover somewhat but it seems impossible for him to get the nomination again.