**WHEN** we leave Iraq ..... then what?

[Stinky The Clown]

Even in the face of Il Dunce over there in Europe today, flapping his simian arms about staying courses and not yanking the troops until the mission is completed and fighting Al Qaeda until hell freezes over, the fact is we're gonna be out of Iraq damned soon.

The whole rest of the world knows it. The American man-on-the-street now knows and accepts it. Even the newz media knows it (see NBC decision to term it 'civil war').

But the whole situation is so bad, so degenerated, so out of control and so unsolvable that no matter *what* we do now, there is no good outcome ..... from either staying or leaving.

I don't need platitudes about saving American lives by leaving now, or saving Iraqi lives by staying to protect them after we screwed the whole thing up in the first place.

There are, quite simply, NO GOOD OUTCOMES in the short or mid term. If we stay, we get our guys killed while not being able to stop the killing resulting from the civil war. If we leave, the killing from the civil war will escalate. If we increase our troop strength we just put more targets on the street and still will not be able to stop things - or we'll be seen crystal clear for the occupiers we are. No doubt there are countless other ways to parse this out. But at the end of any exercise there is one irrefutable truth - there are NO GOOD OUTCOMES.

So let's say we do what now seems the most likely short term outcome - we pull out (relatively) fast.

Where does that leave us? Not within our country, but on the world stage?

Even after Viet Nam, our country was able to gain back rather quickly most of our international prestige. I just don't see it happening that way this time.

So my question for the day is this: When we leave Iraq and allow the civil war **we caused** to escalate, what then?

(As an aside, it is my honest, considered, heartfelt opinion, that the entire current administration of our country needs to be put before the International Criminal Court for war crimes trials. That is not hyperbole. I think that if *we* have them arrested and charged, our international prestige will be won back in a heartbeat. It for the same reason I am an impeachment hawk.)

[peace13]

1. I think the rebuilding has to happen on two fronts,

re-establishing diplomacy and the rebuilding of our military which has been systematically destroyed by this administration. I think the election this fall was the preamble to our message to the world that the people of this country will not tolerate torture, killing, and illegal wars. The International Criminal Court for war crimes investigations will be the icing on the cake. As far as the military goes I think the states need to take back the National Guard. We will get volunteers if they know that they are to serve inside the United States only. By doing this we can implement plans to secure our cities and towns from attack as well as natural disasters. We have to discontinue raiding the Air Force, Navy and Marines. By this I mean that we have been using non-Army personnel to do Army operations. I think that volunteers for these service groups would increase if we discontinued this practice. We need to address the Army by limiting combat tours, increasing hazard pay, improving equipment and decreasing the number of years these individual will stand at ready reserve. We will also have to look at beefed up training for returning Army personnel as we have had to lower the entrance standards to keep the ranks 'full'. If we want good Army personnel in the future all members of the rank will need to be of a certain caliber. This is not a slam to the Army in any way. I feel that they have taken the brunt of this war and I am totally amazed at the job they have done throughout this war. In addition to these changes we will have to enhance and improve Veterans benefits.

These are the ideas that float in my head. Thanks for your post and by the way I love reading your posts. They are always read worthy. Peace on earth, Kim

[The Magistrate]

2. Several Things, Sir, Can Be Expected

The loss of prestige is in many ways the least of them. Most of the unpopularity of our country today is tied directly to the current regime here, and its replacement by a Democratic administration will go a long way to restoring good feelings, certainly in Europe. The realities of economic and military power will continue, and command a reasonable degree of respect accordingly from foreign governments.

The civil war in Iraq will continue, and at a more ferocious pitch, with the Shia the favored contestants, and secession by the Kurds, with accompanying ethnic cleansing of Arab and Turkmen inhabitants in their region, seems certain. It seems to me unlikely, however, that this conflict will remain contained within Iraq. Shia victory there is Iranian victory, and Iran seeks a further Shia dominion that includes the Gulf Emirates and portions of Saudi Arabia. The Sunni Arabs throughout the Middle East regard this prospect with great hostility, and there will be steps taken to assist the Sunnis in Iraq. The Turks will not acquiesce to the establishment of a Kurdistan, nor, for that matter, will the Iranians. The general level of instability will have some effect on the supply and marketing of oil, and do damage to the global economy.

The danger of jihadi attacks against the United States itself will increase greatly. The strategic purpose of the attacks in 2001 was to draw the United States into battle abroad, on the jihadis home ground, which battle they hoped to turn into the sort of running sore that they opened in the Soviet Union, that would cause the weakening to collapse of our country's power in the same manner it did to the Soviets. In the case of Afghanistan, this hope was initially cheated, but the invasion of Iraq played directly into their hands, and indeed, gave them all they could have hoped for. It is for this reason only that there have been no further real attacks here since 2001: further attacks were not necessary, since their object had been achieved. The jihadis will, once the venture in Iraq has been liquidated, seek to do something sufficiently outrageous to draw or force the United States into some new expedition abroad in force. About all that could do this would be a new mass killing in the United States, or some catastrophic assault on the Saudi oil production.

[Stinky The Clown]

3. Chilling

No other comes to mind in reading what you wrote. No surpises, either. All of this was both known and said way back before the Cowboy pulled the trigger.

Please allow me a moment of play, wearing my tinfoil chapeau.

You knew this before the invasion. I knew this before the invasion. We surely were not alone in knowing this before the invasion.

Could it be that this was somehow part of a grand scheme by the neocons? Perhaps their Plan B, should the initial invasion fail to produce the desired result? And further, as a way to discredit those who would surely follow them to power should a failed invasion cause their ouster from the Halls of Power?

With hat removed, thanks for the indulgence. :)

[The Magistrate]

4. It Seems Vastly Unlikely To Me, Sir

That this outcome was planned by anyone, but of course, you knew that, and were only proposing a thought experiment.

No one has yet suggested to me any interest, beyond pure nihilism on the part of the suspect persons, that would be reliably served by loosing such chaos as this. Commercial looting and exploitation is much more easily and profitably conducted in conditions of settled peace. Not only is colonial rule better conducted in settled situations, departure amounts to the surrender of colonial aspirations. The persons who seriously propose this chaos as a motive mostly strike me as having strong elements of nihilism in their own outlooks, and accusations people make against strangers are a pretty reliable window into their own souls, as the world is chiefly a mirror in which we see ourselves.

It is not wise to under-rate the willful blindness of human beings. People are not only prone to, but skilled at, disregarding what it would be inconvenient to their desires and pre-conceptions to incorporate into their thinking and plans. People do indeed come to believe their own propagandas, and convince themselves everything will turn out exactly as they wish it would. There is a charming simplicity about the idea complex problems can be solved by force, that many fall prey to.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. They'll be begging us to come back!

They'll send us videos of stockpiles of flowers, and they'll promise that this time, they really will shower us with them!

They'll raise a statue to George W. Bush, in a square named after him!

They'll change their official flag to a modified versio of the Stars and Stripes!

Or maybe not.