Hillary's Primary Problem

[ProSense]

ON THE TRAIL

Hillary's Primary Problem

By Chuck Todd, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2006

As the months preceding New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's eventual presidential announcement dwindle to weeks, it's worth exploring just how difficult her path to the Democratic nomination really is. It's tricky to write about her these days, because it seems that everything's been said -- just not everyone has said it. But let's attempt a fresher look.

Too many of us have awarded Clinton the '08 nod too soon and too easily. The conventional-wisdom crowd is easily impressed by two things about her candidacy: money and her last name. There's also a dirty little secret that those of us in the media are leery to admit: She's good for business (particularly expense reports).

Take the money and surname drama and add a dash of media anticipation, and you get the simplest explanation of the perceived Clinton juggernaut.

more...

[Ignacio Upton]

1. The fact that Hillary only gets 30-something in the national polls

Is not good for her, considering her name recognition. Also, if she runs the netroots will be dead-set against her. News to Hillary, Carville and other 1992 campaign alumns: this ISN'T 1992. Clark, Edwards and Obama are not Tsongas or Jerry Brown, and Hillary is not Bill. She can't win and you guys know that!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. I'll give her this. She is no dummy. She reads the same polls.

I suspect that if the Reid-Hillary deal was real, then she might jump at that chance. Round one was bad enough; Round two was painful.
She KNOWS that she will be round three - a neocon punching bag like no other.

On the other hand, being the top senator in the majority party is one hell of a lot less stressful, a lot more fun and still gives you an op to do what you want. More importantly, it allows you to stay in office for as long as you want. She has a guaranteed lifetime job, without lifting a finger, while being able to always get the press atwitter with "Will she run" questions until she steps into a 6 foot deep hole, surrounded by a box.

The polls are giving her the bad news/good news. She can stay as senator for life, or be attacked like no politician since Abe Lincoln. (check out the Abe's Presidential museum in Springfield Illinois - it defines what a modern museum is all about. It rocks!) My guess is that she will keep people hanging, then bow out.

[Ignacio Upton]

4. I bet she will pull a Mario Cuomo and wait until the plane is on the tarmac

To announce that she won't run. She's definately building up for it though...but I don't think she has decided yet.

[IndianaGreen]

9. Hillary's ambition is bigger than her rump

and it will be that ambition that will compel her to run for President and fracture the Democratic coalition.

[NMDemDist2]

3. good analysis thanks! n/t

[JNelson6563]

5. I intend to be one of her primary problems

by (hopefully) finding a candidate I support whole-heartedly and work tirelessly for them/against her.

Julie

[nealmhughes]

6. I'm already president of the club. I need a vice president though...

[JNelson6563]

7. I'll sign on to that slate!

I'm in! :toast:

[IndianaGreen]

8. I will support any viable candidate that will stop Hillary before

she ruins our chances in 2008. Hillary is NOT a unifier! There are other potential Democratic candidates that will unify the party and the nation in 2008.