Gilliard: The Battle For Sadr City

[babylonsister]

Stand by for lots more casualties. :(

http://www.firedoglake.com/

The Battle For Sadr City
By Steve Gilliard @ 6:00 pm



The US has quietly moved to take on the Mahdi Army as a preparation for the surge. Thinking in CENTCOM has been for some time that Sadr is a factor which can be isolated and dealt with.

This is the kind of mistaken thinking which will result in a MASH-like stream of helicopters to the Balad CASH, with wounded Americans being treated and shipped to Germany. The US has long underestimated the power and appeal of the Sadrist movement, of which only one part is the Jaish-Al Mahdi. The Sadrist movement feeds people, cares for them, and there isn't a chance in hell a "unity" government can replace that.

The arrests are a foolish attempt to decapitate a movement with multiple leaders and vast support. The fact is that the Iraqi Army is so infiltrated with Madhi Army supporters, the odds of them turning on US troops is high.

The US is trying to do this like Fallujah, but this isn't Fallujah. The Maliki government cannot survive war with the Mahdi Army and may decide to turn on Bush when they realize what their alternatives are: A dead Sadr is a martyr, and more trouble than a living one.

What Bush and his generals don't seem to realize is that they are outnumbered and outgunned. You can call in the AC-130's, but dead children don't earn support. The people of Sadr City can turn that place into a killing field which would make Ramadi look like a vacation home. While Sadr doesn't want a fight, his people also reportedly handed out grenades to the homes. Imagine that lunacy, you break into a home and grandma tosses a frag at your feet.

But the real problem is that Sadr isn't the enemy, but the way out of Iraq. Any deal to leave Iraq needs to be brokered by him, so we can drive south. The fact that we think we can beat him, after being unable to deal with the far weaker Sunni guerillas, proves the level of delusion in Bush's war planning.

Sadr is the main power in Iraq, not Maliki or the puppet government.