_
(34 posts)
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:36 PM
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Which states will go Kerry and which will go with * |
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Forget about the current polls, pundits and opinion takers. I'm more interested in a historical and/or demographic context.
Assuming a Kerry win for the Dem nomination, which states are pretty much guaranteed for him? Kerry's VP choice is not a consideration at this point.
Which states are pretty much assured for Bush?
By "pretty much" and "assured", I mean highly unlikely to lose, or if they could lose, be it by a very slim margin.
Which states are the borderline ones that could go either way or are a toss up?
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HFishbine
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:43 PM
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(Big if, since a lot can happen in eight months). But if things are about like they are today, I think any dem could carry all but:
Utah Kansas Indiana Georgia South Carolina Texas Wyoming Montanna Alabama
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yellowcanine
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:57 PM
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But I don't see the Dems carrying Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Idaho, Alaska. I also think N. Carolina, Nebraska, Virginia, and Tennessee ate long shots. I would love to be proven wrong!
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nankerphelge
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:44 PM
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will vote for Kerry. However, I'm not sure who the paperless voting machines will say won. 2000: year of the chad. 2004: year of conveniently malfunctionin' machines.
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PROGRESSIVE1
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:48 PM
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Edited on Tue Feb-10-04 09:56 PM by PROGRESSIVE1
Safe Kerry: MA/ME/RI/CT/VT/NY/NJ/DE/MD/IL/MI/MN/CA/WA/IA/HI/DC
WILL HAVE TO FIGHT TO KEEP(MOST LIKELY WIN): NM/WIS/OR/PA
CAN WIN OVER: MISSOURI/NH/WV/VA/NV/AZ/FL/TN/OH
HAS TO FIGHT VERY HARD TO WIN: ARK/LA
MIGHT WIN: LONG SHOT, MONTANA (YEARS OF RETHUG CONTROL HAS TAKEN IT'S TOLL ON THE STATE)
WILL NOT WIN: NC/SC/GA/AL/MS/TX/ID/OK/KY/CO/KA/AK/IN/SD/ND
WILL LOOSE BADLY: UT/WY
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NWHarkness
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Tue Feb-10-04 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
9. I think that's pretty good |
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I am optimistic about West Virginia and Nevada.
I think Ohio is the key. While we keep talking about how Dems can't win without the south, we ought to remember that no Republican has ever won without Ohio.
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sistersofmercy
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Tue Feb-10-04 11:31 PM
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10. MO will go to Kerry in the GE |
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My prediction and btw MO votes in the GE have swung with the presidential winner (and selected presidential winner* included) everytime in the last 100 years except once. MO is kind of a measuring stick, bush* will campaign hard here, already is actually.
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IndianaGreen
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:50 PM
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4. Indiana will go for Bush at about 6:01 PM on Election night |
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One minute after the polls close.
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corporatewhore
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:51 PM
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5. I dont see how anybody but bush could win texas |
bigwillq
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Tue Feb-10-04 09:53 PM
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I'm a Dean fan, don't take my sarcasm too seriously. It's been a rough night.
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jpgray
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Tue Feb-10-04 10:00 PM
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8. I'm hoping some combo of NH, WV, AZ, and OH will turn over (nt) |
HazMat
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Tue Feb-10-04 11:57 PM
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a sunbelt/rustbelt/border state strategy and forget about the deep south. Bush is even more popular down south since 9-11, and they are very hawkish on the Iraq war. Maybe a moderate southern state or two (like Louisiana or Arkansas) will present a Dem opportunity, but I doubt it. We should definitely fight for Florida (which I don't consider to be a 'southern' state).
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Mon May 06th 2024, 01:23 PM
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