How 'bout some meaningless speculation about the 2008 Senate elections?

[SteppingRazor]

With all the concentration on the presidential race, how's it lookin' out there in the Senate? By my count, as things stand now, we'd probably pick up three seats and lose one -- unless more people than Allard announce retirement. Here's what too much time on my hands has gotten me:

RETIRING
COLORADO
Wayne Allard, R.
Now that former Gov. Bill Owens is out, this open seat will almost definitely be a race between Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and former Republican Rep. Scott McInnis. A couple other Republicans have said they may run, but McInnis has the backing of Owens and a lot of other heavy hitters in the state party, plus name recognition matched only by potential rival Bob Beauprez. Unfortunately for Beauprez, he's mainly memorable for losing the 2006 gubernatorial election to Democrat Bill Ritter. With the exception of Wyoming, states in the Mountain Time Zone have almost all been trending Democrat, including Colorado.
(SWITCHES TO DEM)

MIGHT BE RETIRING
ALASKA
Ted Stevens, R. (age on election day: 85)
Stevens has said he will run for reelection but, to be as gentle as possible, the phrase "every day is the first day of the rest of your life" takes on special meaning at his age. But regardless of Stevens' decision, Alaska is safely GOP. It's governor and lone representative are both Republicans, as is most of its state congress.
(Retirement: STAYS GOP)
(Reelection: STAYS GOP)

DELAWARE
Joe Biden, D. (age on election day: 58)
It's not Biden's age that's a factor here, it's the fact that he's the only senator running for the presidency who also faces reelection. Given that his run for the White House has started off lamely with the Obama gaffe, he'll probably hedge his bets and run for the Senate as well. If he pulls out of the senate race to concentrate on the presidential run, though, the Delaware senatorial race gets interesting. The state's lone representative, Mike Castle, is a Republican, while the state's governor, Ruth Minner, is a Democrat. Castle may want the Senate job, but Minner's intentions are unknown, since Biden hasn't announced retirement. If she doesn't go for it, the job may fall to some ancient fossil in the state legislature, like state senate president pro tem Thurman Adams. In any case, it's all just the purest speculation, and none of it will likely come to pass, since Biden would probably only announce a senate retirement if the presidential campaign looked hopeful, and it doesn't. Still, if Biden does retire, this Senate seat has a good chance of going GOP — but not better than 50/50.
(Retirement: TOSSUP)
(Reelection: STAYS DEM)

KANSAS
Pat Roberts, R. (age on election day: 72)
In 2002, Pat was reelected by the largest margin of any candidate for statewide office in the history of Kansas. Besides, Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat as a senator in something like 70 years. If he runs for reelection, he's in. However, if he retires, inexplicably popular Democratic governor Kathleen Sebelius, who will be term-limited out in 2010 anyway, could easily pick up this seat. Unfortunately, she's more likely to wait and challenge Sam Brownback in 2010, but just for shits and giggles, let's say she's in if Pat retires. There's a whole host of Republican opposition she could face — this is Kansas, after all — but she won reelection handily in '06.
(Retirement: SWITCHES TO DEM)
(Reelection: STAYS GOP)

MISSISSIPPI
Thad Cochran, R. (age on election day: 71)
Cochran has said he wouldn't make a decision on whether to run for reelection until later this year. However, his decision must be weighed against two factors. First, the fact that the Democrats now control the Senate spells retirement. But, if he does step down, Mississippi has a fairly good chance of going Democratic (that's right ... Mississippi ... Democratic). A Cochran-less Mississippi Senate campaign would probably pit well-known former state Attorney General Mike Moore, a Democrat, against Republican Rep. Chip Pickering, hardly a known commodity in most of the state. Still, this is Mississippi — any Democrat has a long row to hoe.
(Retirement: TOSSUP)
(Reelection: STAYS GOP)

NEW JERSEY
Frank Lautenberg, D. (age on election day: 84)
Like Ted Stevens, Lautenberg has announced his intentions to run for reelection, but, also like Stevens, he's not exactly a spring chicken. Despite low approval numbers, Lautenberg should do OK in a reelection campaign — New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican senator in decades. Just who Lautenberg would face remains unknown, though Doug Forrester — who lost the gubernatorial race to Jon Corzine in 2005 and the senate race to Lautenberg in 2002 — is a possibility. If Lautenberg retires, it's pure speculation as to what Democrat would run. Maybe a heavy hitter from the state senate, like pres. pro tem. Shirley Turner, but who's to say?
(Retirement: TOSSUP)
(Reelection: STAYS DEM)

NEW MEXICO
Pete Domenici, R. (age on election day: 76)
A lot of retirement buzz has been swirling around Domenici. If he does hang up the spurs, this race could very well turn into a repeat of the 2006 U.S. House race in New Mexico's 1st congressional district, which pitted incumbent Heather Wilson against former state attorney general Patricia Madrid. Despite going for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004 (by very narrow margins each time, it should be noted), the state has generally trended Democratic, with Dem. majorities in both state houses. Although Wilson barely beat Madrid in 2006, Madrid would probably win out in a statewide campaign.
(Retirement: SWITCHES TO DEM)
(Reelection: STAYS GOP)

OKLAHOMA
Jim Inhofe, R. (age on election day: 74)
Since the Democrats took over in 2006, there have been a lot of unsubstantiated reports that Inhofe is considering retirement — no doubt he now sees Congress as some sort of latter-day Sodom and Gamorrah. But even if he does retire, it wouldn't change anything in heavily conservative Oklahoma — especially when Republican heavy hitters like Gen. Tommy Franks and former Gov. Frank Keating are waiting in the wings.
(Retirement: STAYS GOP)
(Reelection: STAYS GOP)

SOUTH DAKOTA
Tim Johnson, D. (age on election day: 62)
With his severe health issues, a lot of people expect Johnson to step down before the 2008 elections. South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds is the obvious GOP candidate should Johnson step down — though the govenor has hinted that he would not run if Johnson stayed in. The obvious replacement for Johnson for the Democrats would be South Dakota's sole representative in the House, Stephanie Herseth. Herseth won reelection in 2006 by a margin of something like 45 points, but Rounds enjoys high approval as well. This one would be a battle.
(Retirement: TOSSUP)
(Reelection: STAYS DEM)

VIRGINIA
John Warner, R. (age on election day: 81)
There's almost no doubt that Warner would be reelected should he choose to run again. But if the old man decides to step down, this state could make for an easy Dem. pickup if former Gov. Mark Warner enters the race. He would face nominal GOP opposition from George "Macaca" Allen, Rep. Tom Davis (marred from both the Schiavo mess and his questionable divorce and hasty marriage to a Virginia GOP colleague), or former gov. Jim Gilmore, who seems to be more interested in the White House than the Senate.
(Retirement: SWITCHES TO DEM)
(Reelection: STAYS GOP)


INCUMBENT ELECTIONS
ALABAMA
Jeff Sessions, R.
Sessions is in by a mile. There's not even a major statewide Democrat who has a chance to stand against him — especially since Rep. Artur Davis announced he wouldn't run.
STAYS GOP

ARKANSAS
Mark Pryor, D.
Up for reelection for the first time, Pryor enjoys good approval ratings and few Republican rivals. Besides, he's one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, which matches up well with this reddish state.
STAYS DEM

GEORGIA
Saxby Chambliss, R.
Chambliss, who memorably beat out incumbent Democrat Max Cleland in 2002 by painting the triple-amputee Vietnam vet as some sort of terrorist-coddling traitor, may face opposition from Dekalb County CEO Vernon Jones. Expect Chambliss to get reelected handily.
STAYS GOP

IDAHO
Larry Craig, R.
Craig should coast to reelection in this bright red state. Democrat Larry LaRocco, who lost in his bid for Lt. Gov. in 2006, has been mentioned in the blogosphere as a potential candidate, but it'd end in tears.
STAYS GOP

IllINOIS
Dick Durbin, D.
Easy reelection for Durbin. This seat's safe.
STAYS DEM

IOWA
Tom Harkin, D.
Another seat that's safely with the incumbent
STAYS DEM

KENTUCKY
Mitch McConnell, R.
This seat should be safe, but McConnell faces some stiff competition, especially from former Miss America and CBS sportscaster Phyllis George. George was rumored to be a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2007, but she hasn't made any in-roads there, which means she's likely to run for the 2008 senate seat. She should make this a good show, but McConnell should pull it off in the end.
STAYS GOP

LOUISIANA
Mary Landrieu, D.
The Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent, Landrieu faces an uphill battle for reelection. Democrats running for statewide office in Louisiana depend on the heavily Democratic New Orleans vote to get elected, and that voting base is no longer existent, at least in the numbers it was when Landrieu last faced reelection. Look for her to get ousted in 2008.
SWITCHES TO GOP

MAINE
Susan Collins, R.
Collins is wide open for a whupping, despite her high approval numbers, with Maine going heavily blue in 2006 and a serious threat in likely Democratic candidate Rep. Tom Allen. This one's a nail-biter.
TOSSUP

MASSACHUSETTS
John Kerry, D.
Puh-lease. With "the joke" and every other gaffe Kerry makes, he's still untouchable in his home state.
STAYS DEM

MICHIGAN
Carl Levin, D.
Another easy victory for the Dems.
STAYS DEM

MINNESOTA
Norm Coleman, R.
Now that Al Franken has announced his candidacy, all bets are off. Unfortunately for Franken, he'll have a lot of competition in the primary before facing off against Coleman — trial lawyer Mike Ciresi is in, and half a dozen other Democrats have been mentioned as potential rivals for Coleman. There's a reason so many sharks are in the water, though — whichever candidate wins the Dem. primary will likely toast Coleman.
SWITCHES TO DEM

MONTANA
Max Baucus, D.
Montana has been trending Democratic over the last several election cycles, with a new Democratic governor in 2004 and a new Democratic senator in 2006. This is great news for Baucus, who should win reelection easily.
STAYS DEM

NEBRASKA
Chuck Hagel, R.
Although still flirting with a presidential run, Hagel should win reelection no matter what he decides — the man enjoys massive popularity in his home state.
STAYS GOP

NEW HAMPSHIRE
John Sununu, R.
Sununu's on borrowed time — literally. His current term in office is likely illegitimate, the result of the phone bank scandal. New Hampshire voters haven't forgotten that, and several Democrats have already announced their candidacies, including likely rival Steve Marchand. Sununu and Minnesota's Norm Coleman are the most likely GOP incumbents to get ousted.
SWTICHES TO DEM

NORTH CAROLINA
Elizabeth Dole, R.
The Dems have been trying to get N.C. governor Mike Easley, who will be term-limited out of office in 2008, to run against Dole, but he has repeatedly said he doesn't want the job. If he does run, this race is a close one. If not, Dole coasts.
STAYS GOP

OREGON
Gordon Smith, R.
In highly blue Oregon, Smith's antiwar stance Might not be enough to save him against the coming Democratic tide. Smith will likely face Microhelix, Inc., CEO Ty Pettit, who already has set up his campaign Web site, Pettit4senate2008.com. This one's a bit of a longer shot than Minnesota or New Hampshire, bit it's still going to be close. Still, in close races, advantage goes to the incumbent.
STAYS GOP

RHODE ISLAND
Jack Reed, D.
In most polls, Rhode Island is the most antiwar, anti-Bush state in the union. A Republican just ain't gonna fly here.
STAYS DEM

SOUTH CAROLINA
Lindsey Graham, R.
Graham should coast to reelection in this deeply Republican state.
STAYS GOP

TEXAS
John Cornyn, R.
Please. It's Texas.
STAYS GOP

WEST VIRGINIA
Jay Rockefeller, D.
Reelection shouldn't be a problem for the abnormal Democratic member of the Rockefeller clan.
STAYS DEM

WYOMING
Mike Enzi, R.
Please. It's Wyoming.
STAYS GOP.

So assuming no one retires except Allard, I count 3 pickups for the Dems, 1 for the GOP, for a total new Senate count of 53-47. If everyone retires that might/could, though, it could be more like 56-44 with a bunch more tossups. Of course, it's still way early, but with this much speculation over the presidential race, why not throw out some meaningless speculation about the Senate? See ya in November, ace.

http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/2007/02/a_filibusterfree_seante_in_200.html

[hijinx87]

1. if I recall correctly

we are in much better shape in 2008 than the rethugs, with only
12 seats to defend, an opposed to their 21.

[SteppingRazor]

3. Correct. Not a whole lot of extremely vulnerable seats though...

the GOP will face battles in New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota and Colorado -- the latter only because Wayne Allard is retiring.

On our side, we'll have our hands full defending Mary Landrieu's seat in Louisiana.

So, unlike 2006, there's not a whole lot of vulnerable GOP seats in states that are trending blue, like Rhode Island, Montana, and whatnot, where we picked up seats last November.

[ncrainbowgrrl]

5. But... Wyoming has a democratic governor- who knows?

Good candidate on our side- awful senator on their side... :shrug:

Could get interesting.

[SteppingRazor]

9. Yeah, but Freudenthal just got re-elected...

and I don't think he intends to run for the senate.

[ncrainbowgrrl]

10. True. But the fact that he just got RE-elected speaks to something

There ARE dems there... Who knows what they can do with the right candidate. Who would have ever thought that they would have a democratic governor?

[Demeter]

2. Cassandra Predicts: Veto-Proof Majorities In House and Senate!

So next Pres better play it straight and fair with Congress!

[SteppingRazor]

11. That'd be sweet, but I really doubt it...

we'd have to pick up something like 55 seats in the House and 15 seats in the senate.

[ncrainbowgrrl]

4. Dole is NOT popular here... (and other thoughts)

She's done about as good a job representing the interests of her constituents as she did running the RSCC.

A good dem candidate (read: NOT ERSKINE BOWLES) could pick up this seat.

What interests me is Dean Smith's (yes- the coach) HIgHLY public and HEAVY campaigning for dems in NC last election cycle. (See Heath Shuler)
I doubt he'd run- but I think he'd carry the state by over a 15 pt. margin.

[SteppingRazor]

6. Who could do it other than Easley?

The state A.G. (what the hell's his name? Cooper?) has gotten some headlines because of the Duke rape case, but does that help him or hurt him?

[ncrainbowgrrl]

8. Cooper's good.. donno if he'd want it...

He's also been forced to clean up after the Dook case- his name is becoming a household name. In addition, our former house majority leader (D, unfortunately) is about to plead guilty to accepting gifts/bribery)- Cooper's gonna have to be on that- this case has gotten MEGA press across NC... Both dems and rethugs are pleased with how cooper's staff has handled the drama so far...

If Bob Etheridge didn't run for house again, he could pull it off. He's a campaign machine. Does LOTS for his constituents- moderate dem- keeps getting reelected by large margins in a majority conservative district.

Our state house and senate are both strongly democratically controlled. Our new house majority leader is a progressive dem (mine!) with a history of consensus building.

Donno who the candidate would be. Our sec. of state would also be a good choice- Elaine Marshall.

I'm just ABB (anyone but bowles) right now...

[POAS]

7. Watch Ohio go blue

Voinovich not up this time around but expect more House seats to go blue and possibly the Presidential vote as well.

[tnlurker]

12. You missed TN

Alexander is up for re-election in TN. I don't know if he has stated that he is running yet. It is assumed that Harold Ford Jr might try again for the Senate in 2008

[SteppingRazor]

13. Whoops! Thanks for pointing that out!

I imagine Alexander will coast in Tennessee. Ford would be a good candidate and all, except I'd be worried about voters being exhausted with the candidate after 2006.