Question for political historians....when was the last time the frontrunner one year out

[Clarkie1]

actually ended up winning the nomination?

Is there any historical precedent?

I don't think it's gonna happen. :-)

[KingofNewOrleans]

1. Not counting sitting VPs

like Gore or George Bush Sr. (or even Mondale in 1984) I'd guess Reagan in 1980, but I don't have any historical numbers or links.

[sandnsea]

2. Reagan & Bush

After Ford dropped out, Reagan went into the number one spot and stayed there. I don't remember exactly when the shrub took the number one spot in 1999, but it was at least by summer. I don't know about Democrats, I don't remember ever getting around one candidate until after the voting started.

[Skink]

3. The Dems actually torch their front runners if neccassary.

[sandnsea]

4. Like Lieberman?

Yeah, sometimes the front runners deserve to be torched.

[wyldwolf]

7. a better example is Gore

[dsc]

5. Gore for Democrats

as well as Mondale.

[wyldwolf]

6. Isn't too unusual

Nixon in '68. Ford in '76. Maybe Carter in 1980. Reagan in 1980. Mondale in 1984. Bush in 1988. Bush in 1992. Clinton in 1996. Gore in 2000. Bush in 2000.

Seems to have happened 8 times out of 10 elections.

[Smarmie Doofus]

8. Nixon, Reagan, Mondale, Bush(Sr.), Gore, Bush (jr.).

Perhaps Dole ('96).

Happens more often than not.