WaPO: Mark Warner seriously considering running for US Senate

[wyldwolf]

"Mark Warner had dinner with Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.) last month, and the two have since talked regularly about the contest."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/27/AR2007022701861.html

[Ninja Jordan]

1. John Warner would need to retire.

I dont like Mark in a Warner v. Warner matchup.

[Virginia Dare]

2. Who do you like?

just curious..

[Ninja Jordan]

7. I'm saying I think Mark would have trouble beating John.

Now if John retires, and TOny Snow or some other goon runs, then it's Mark seat to lose.

[MADem]

17. Well, the key is always 'framing'--who thought Allen would lose to "loose cannon" Webb?

If anyone was thought to be a "shoot off your mouth" type, it was Jim Webb.

There's a load of video out there of Warner with the Monkey and Cheney. There's a load of statements too, about the war, that might not play so well today.

And John Warner just seems VERY weary to me. Very weary indeed. Why not--he's 80...I don't think he's made up his mind yet, or if he has, he's keeping it to himself.

However, some doubt John Warner's commitment to run. One Republican active in Virginia politics said that Warner has told U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) to prepare to run if the senator decides against another bid. "Davis is actively calling people and is saying on the calls that he has been told by Warner to get ready," the source said.

Davis did not return a call seeking comment. The senator said only that Davis is "a very, very fine and competent public servant."

Mark and John Warner faced each other in 1996 in a mostly polite but sometimes confusing contest. To reach voters, the Democrat offered a simple slogan on bumper stickers: "MARKNOTJOHN."

Mark Warner lost the race by 5 percentage points and later joked about it in speeches, saying that he won the silver medal in his political debut. He returned to politics five years later in his successful 2001 campaign for governor, defeating Republican Mark L. Earley.

In Virginia, the two major parties have grown increasingly competitive since Warner won that race. Although President Bush carried the state with 54 percent of the vote in 2004, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) claimed the governor's mansion in 2005, and Sen. James Webb (D) toppled George Allen (R) in November. In an interview in December, John Warner said he needed to consider those results as he weighed another run.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/27/AR2007022701861.html



Oh, and on edit, John Warner's chief of staff (LONGTIME employee, too--Susan Magill) quit last year, around this time. Now, that may mean something, or it may not. I dunno, I'd want the old crew at my side for a last or next to last run if it were me....

[Virginia Dare]

19. It could explain Tom Davis's recent vote..

for the nonbinding resolution, one of the 18 Repubs who voted with the Democrats. I don't think Tom could beat Mark Warner though.

[MADem]

20. It probably does explain it, seeing as Tom is "on standby!" NT

[Virginia Dare]

18. Who do you like to beat John Warner though..

if he doesn't retire, which at this point seems to be the case?

[Ninja Jordan]

24. No one. Mark is the best VAdem candidate.

John is just pretty much an institution.

[Virginia Dare]

28. I'd like to see a woman run....

but I guess that's not in the cards at this point.

[Eurobabe]

4. You mean Mark not John?

I think Mark could win. I lived have in VA for many years, and with the changing demographics, I think he has a very good shot.

[underpants]

5. Mmm that is pretty much consider a certainty

Okay nothing is a certainty but I think Mark is only talking about this because John is probably going to retire.

Though he is a party loyalist I doubt that John has much of a problem with Mark and he would surely know that Mark would step right into the job.

John's prestige is still formidable but the innner circles see it as being tarnished by his big push for Allen late in the campaign that didn't pay off.

[Ninja Jordan]

10. He's repositioned himself well with his anti-surge amendments, though.

It makes me think he'll run again.

[KingFlorez]

8. He could win

He polled very well against Warner in 1996 and he won a governor's race. Plus, Virginia is trending Democratic.

[SaveElmer]

22. Mark nearly beat John in 1996...

I think Mark would be a small favorite next year...

I think the idea actually is to encourage John to retire rather than face a bruising reelection battle.

[DemKR]

3. I do

Mark Warner almost knocked John off in 1996, before he became the best governor the state ever had. RUN MARK RUN!!!

[mconvente]

6. Sounds great!

Hopefully he will formerly declare and increase our slim Dem lead!

[Eurobabe]

12. GO MARK!!! DO it!!!

I think Warner could knock off John Warner, he needs to retire. He's getting a bit doddery.

[skipos]

9. Who would likely to win?

They are both pretty popular there.

[MADem]

11. He should--he could withstand the scruitiny, and he could afford it

And he'd be up against WARNER...so you've got the "which one?" thing going, though both are popular. That's IF John Warner just doesn't say "Fuck it, I want to have fun on the farm for awhile before I get too damned old."

In which case, the idiots who always pull the lever for Warner would pull for Mark, thinking John.

I never thought Mark had the 'fire' for a Presidential run, but he'd do well in a Senate race, and I think he has the focus for that sort of effort. And he's rich as Roosevelt, so he could afford it.

It would be a WONDERFUL thing to siphon off scads of GOP cash to 'safe' Virginia....just like they did for the "Frontrunner and Likely Presidential Candidate" (bwahahahahahahahahaha!) George Felix Macacawitz Allen!!!!!!

If they're spending money in VA, there's that much LESS to spend in FL, Ohio, and so forth....

[PresidentObama]

13. He should run, add him to our majority n/t

[skipos]

14. VA is trending Dem

that is one of the reasons I'd love to see a good. VA person on the Dem ticket. Those 13 electoral votes would be nice.

'88: Bush (59.74 - 39.23) = + 12.79% Republican
'92: Bush (44.97 - 40.59) = + 9.94% Republican
'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = + 10.48% Republican
'00: Bush (52.47 - 44.44) = + 8.54% Republican
'04: Bush (53.68 - 45.48) = + 5.74% Republican

[PresidentObama]

15. VA went to Dole in 96'?

:crazy:

I think Mark Warner would make a fine Senator, and welcome addition to our majority. Plus it'd be great to have Jim Webb and Mark Warner as the two DEMOCRATIC SENATORS from VA!!

[spooky3]

21. I don't understand how these #s were calculated.

I know VA has voted for the Repub. in all recent Pres. elections (in part because candidates have ignored in in the last two). But how do you get, for example, that 47.1 minus 45.15 = 10.48? Doesn't it = a little less than 2 percentage points to the Repub.?

[skipos]

23. Sorry.

It is comparing the margin of victory in the national popular vote to the margin of victory in the particular state.

'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = Means Dole won it by @ 2%
However Dole lost the popular vote by @8.5%

So VA voted more republican than the rest of the country by
10.48%

It is the best way to look at trends.

Make sense?

[spooky3]

26. yes thanks!

[Zynx]

25. It means that it was 10.48% more Republican than the rest of the country

in terms of vote spread. Clinton carried the country by 8 points but lost Virginia by 2, thus Virginia was 10% more Republican.

[spooky3]

27. thanks!

[SaveElmer]

16. I think he really wants to run for Governor again...

We might take the legislature here this year, and I think Warner would love to see what he could do with a majority there...

On the other hand...he did run against John Warner before for Senate in 1996 and came pretty close to beating him...

He had the famous bumper stickers that said: MARKNOTJOHN...

He might be persuaded....

If its a straight up fight between him and John Warner he could win...

He would also beat Tom Davis I believe...

John Warner would beat any other Democrat...

If John Warner retires and Mark Warner goes for Governor...dems have some good talent on the bench that could take the seat in that case....Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds come to mind immediately...

Also former Lt. Governor Don Beyer might want a shot at it as well...

Alot depends on what the old man does here!!!!

[Thothmes]

29. Warner

IMO Mark Warner as a real good shot at winning a Senatorial Race against John Warner. VA has traditionally been a Republican State. However, the demographics of VA have been steadily changing over the last two decades. Two Democratic Governess in a row. Webb beating Alan. I think the job is his if he wants to run for it. He would be a good Senator, though he is not as liberal as some.