I believe there is at least a 75% chance Libby will be pardoned ..... and SOON

[Stinky The Clown]

All one need do to come to this conclusion is listen to the tunes being played on the Great Wurlitzer.

Included in the lyrics of the top tune is the name Marc Rich.

We keep hearing that there was no underlying crime.

The conviction was partisan.

Jimmy Carter pardoned G. Gordon Liddy.

If you've been listening, you can, no doubt, add to this list.

And make no mistake. This is not about any loyalty to Scooter. It is about saving certain higher asses from getting into cracks. The pardon will come as soon as Congress demonstrates that it is ready to investigate further. When Scooter's out of jeapordy, his memory will fade like his law license.

It is my sad conclusion that for all the hopes that surrounded Prosecutor Fitzgerald's work we got nothing. Not a damned thing.

You're all certainly free to hoist a few toasts in honor of Fitzmas. Me?

I'll pass.

[aquart]

1. Thank you for your concern.

[northzax]

2. Marc Rich, of course

agreed to pay a 100 million dollar fine to get his pardon, and had spent 17 years in exile. So by the same standard, whoever is president in 2023 can pardon Libby.

[Stinky The Clown]

7. The facts don't matter, sadly ...... only the spin has meaning

And the Wurlitzer is spinning this to soften the blow - and the blowback - to the Republics when the widely hated GWB does the deed.

[northzax]

12. remember who told Denise Rich to ask for a pardon?

oh yeah, Scooter Libby.

huh.

[Stinky The Clown]

13. Irony. Delicious, disgusting irony.

[CTyankee]

22. I remember that the pardon of Cap Weinberger saved quite a few

Republics asses and we lost a chance at really finding out what happened in Iran/Contra.

(Sigh) I hope you are wrong. It does seem to me that even pardoning Libby early will be a very difficult thing for incumbent REpublics running in 08.

But I won't be surprised is you are right...

[JuniperLea]

3. That was my first thought

before the trial even began.

Not so eloquent, nor complete as your line of thinking certainly, but the pardon, surely.

[EFerrari]

4. I don't blame you for coming to this conclusion.

We'll see soon enough how functional our government still is.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[saltpoint]

6. I believe we may get a new Vice President out of the Plame leak case.

The blood clot story sets the stage and reminds Americans that poor Uncle Dick's health could go kablooie at any moment, when at last, just prior to an investigation as you suggest, his physician will order him into intensive rest along a trout stream in Wyoming.

Libby's attorney knows more than we do about Cheney's involvement. He probably knows a whole hell of a lot about some other folks' involvement also. If no pardon comes from Dubya's office, attorneys have been known to make sudden shifts in focus and strategy. "If he doesn't give you the pardon, you put him in History's dustbin." And the info would be there already tucked into the filing cabinet, ready for immediate release to Wolf Blitzer.

Fitz knows where this information is and who it leads to. But without the key, he can't get inside.

That's why I think we get a new Vice President out of this.

Pawlenty, Portman, or Barbour.

[Karmageddon]

11. I hope not. I'd rather see Cheney finish the term. Don't want a viable incumbent V.P. in '08

[saltpoint]

15. Better for Dems if Cheney stays in, but not so good for our country.

I'm willing to have the worst political fortunes visited upon the Bush administration, as they so richly deserve the trauma they've dished out to others, but I stop myself because their incompetence is playing out in the people's office.

I am really homesick for the older protocols and good intentions between allied nations. I want a grown-up in the White House.

Can we please hold the Iowa caucuses next Tuesday?

[mediaman007]

26. Amen, being a vice-president offers lots of travel benefits

They can tie business in with campaigning and travel "at ease" around the country.

[Double T]

8. The REAL crooks are still free and conducting corrupt business as usual...........

a conviction is better than NO conviction, ANY DAY!! Pardons are out of 'OUR' control, UNLESS bushco can be impeached and removed from office in disgrace.

[meldroc]

9. Nah, it's too soon.

I stand by the theory he'll get pardoned in January 2009. If Bush pardons Libby now, Libby will no longer be able to plead the 5th, because he'll no longer be in jeopardy for his crimes. Then he could get subpoenaed by Congress, and at that point, enough will be known about Plamegate and his previous lies that he won't be able to come up with even a halfway plausible lie on the stand, and he probably won't want to face perjury charges again.

If Bush waits until just before he leaves office, Congress will have other things to think about, and everyone goes scott free. Libby can probably drag out the appeals until then so he can stay out of prison.

[elfin]

28. I agree with you

Will wait until AFTER the election. Scooter will not spend a day in the slammer UNLESS the judge sends him there before his hopeless appeal runs its course.

Scoots will drag out the process interminably and skate. Bush cannot afford NOT to pardon him. No pardon means Scoots will proabaly finally talk to work a deal. - still damaging to that "legacy" Dumbya apparently cares about.

[Karmageddon]

10. maybe a stupid question, but how would a pardon affect the civil lawsuit Wilson is pursuing?

Any lawyers here that could answer that?

Would a pardon get him (or Cheney or Rove)off the hook for that, or would they still have to testify, under oath, in court for the civil suit. If they have to testify, that could still blow the lid off of things.

Either way, I agree that dim-son will almost certainly pardon Libby, and Cunningham, and Delay, and if necessary Rove and Cheney.

[northzax]

14. it would probably aid a civil suit

against Libby, at least. Accepting a pardon is tantamount to accepting guilt.

[Bake]

17. If subpoenaed, Scooter will have to testify in the civil matter

He may be required to give a deposition, or he may give live testimony at trial. If he's been pardoned, he would not be able to take the 5th Amendment (depending, of course, on the scope of the pardon). If he testified either at deposition or at trial, and LIED (again!), that's a whole new ballgame and he could be prosecuted for it.

Scooter the Witness could, of course, file a motion to quash the subpoena (which would be the first thing he'd do, no doubt). There are various grounds for that. But if he's the only one who can provide the desired evidence, and that evidence is material to the case, and it's not unduly burdensome, etc., he'd probably have to testify.

There are always, however, intricacies to this kind of stuff. This is just a quick summary.

Bake, Esq.

[Karmageddon]

29. Thanks for the info.

[SteppingRazor]

16. I disagree. The party has too much to lose.

We're coming up on an election year. The GOP's chances already look grim, and pardoning Libby will mean the '08 election turns into a fucking horse-whipping.

[Bake]

18. Cheer up, Stinky!

Never misunderestimate the BFEE's propensity to stab its "friends" in the back!

I expect a pardon for Scoots, but only at the eleventh hour.

Bake

[Stinky The Clown]

20. I initially thought the eleventh hour, too ......

.... but that would not require the use of today's air time - wall to wall - to fire up this theme on the Wurlitzer.

It has been nearly 24 hours non stop now. And with a very narrow range of talking points. The defenders of the notion of a pardon seem extraordinarily strident about this.

[Freddie Stubbs]

19. He will be pardoned after November 4, 2008

[SteppingRazor]

21. Also unlikely...

including appeals and even a Supreme Court attempt, Libby has no more than maybe a year and a half as a free man, probably less. That means, by the time November comes around, he'll have been in jail for at least 2 or 3 months. I don't think there's any way Libby's willing to do jail time.

It's a Catch-22. If they pardon him before the election, it hurts the GOP in the election. But if they wait, Libby might flip.

[Stinky The Clown]

23. Good analyis ... and it points to the notion of an earlier rather than later pardon, I think.

I don't think bushco really give a crap about the next election nearly as much as their own asses and, for Il Dunce himself, his legacy. As but a hint toward this, look how he threw Daddy's last 'Save the Kid' plan overboard (Baker and company).

I heard Bill Bennett talk about this recently. Bennett says, similar to you, that at most Libby's got a year of free time.

They're between a rock and a hard place. A loyal Libby able to be crafty as a witness would be better for them than a Libby's who has completely been flipped by the prosecution or Congress.

[SteppingRazor]

24. I do agree that an earlier pardon is more likely than a later one. However...

that assumes that there will be a pardon, which I don't think is the case. I don't believe Libby can connect Bush to Plamegate. In fact, I really don't think Bush had much to do with it. This thing came out of the Vice President's office, and I imagine Dick acted on his own, maybe with just a passing "Oh by the way, I'm doing this" to Bush.

Given that, I think there's a real chance that Bush will side with the GOP over Cheney and throw Cheney under the bus, denying Libby a pardon and forcing the man to flip. The only reason he would have to help Cheney is loyalty, while the reasons to help the GOP win re-election are many (piss off Cheney, you piss off one man. Piss off the GOP, you've burned a thousand money-making bridges). And given Libby's fall-guy status, it's pretty obvious that loyalty means little to this crew.

[madrchsod]

25. "Prosecutor Fitzgerald's work we got nothing. Not a damned thing".

the number 3 man in the whitehouse was convicted of 4 out of 5 charges-the key one is obstruction of justice charge.
the jury realized and stated that rove,cheney,and bush should be accountable about their role in the outing and cover-up
the trial paves the way for the house to investigate the outing and the justification for the war
it makes the civil suit all the more valid and stronger
the trial showed that a grand jury,a trial,and a jury can return a verdict that is not tainted by political pressure,the status of the defendant,or the complexity of the of the case and instructions.

i think we as a nation got a hell of a lot from this trial and will get more if the democrats decide to persue the matter.

[twilight_sailing]

27. God forbid anyone disagree with anyone here.

LOL.