ARG poll: Hillary increases lead .. Edwards rises at Obama's expense...

[SaveElmer]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Clinton 36% (March 34%)
Obama 24% (March 31%)
Edwards 19% (March 15%)

[PresidentObama]

1. Don't like national polls, but GO EDWARDS GO!! n/t

[Tellurian]

7. GOOO HILLARY!!!!!

EXCELLENT!

Obama has peaked! I told ya so..

[ronnykmarshall]

16. I don't think so

I think we are in for a LONG and bumpy ride.

[youngdem]

2. Polls are so very weird sometimes.

Not saying they are inaccurate, but all of the interest I hear from anyone is about Obama. Edwards gets a polite nod. Hillary is almost uniformly reviled and never mentioned as a favorite. (Louisiana)


:shrug:

[skipos]

3. Yet Hillary still trails them in most general election polls

Despite her money and name recognition.

New LA Times poll...

Giuliani 48%, Clinton 42%, CLINTON LOSES BY 6%
Giuliani 45%, Edwards 43%, EDWARDS LOSES BY 2%
Giuliani 42%, Obama 46%, OBAMA WINS BY 4%

McCain 42%, Clinton 45%, CLINTON WINS BY 3%
McCain 40%, Edwards 44%, EDWARDS WINS BY 4%
McCain 40%, Obama 48%, OBAMA WINS BY 8%

Romney, 37% Clinton 44%, CLINTON WINS BY 7%
Romney 30%, Edwards 50%, EDWARDS WINS BY 20%
Romney 31%, Obama 50%, OBAMA WINS BY 19%

Rasussen polls...

Clinton (47%) Giuliani (48%) CLINTON LOSES BY 1%
Edwards (49%) Giuliani (43%) EDWARDS WINS BY 6%
Obama (43%) Giuliani (44%) OBAMA LOSES BY 1%

Clinton (47%) McCain (46%) CLINTON WINS BY 1%
Edwards (47%) McCain (38%) EDWARDS WINS BY 9%
Obama (44%) McCain (44% ) TIED

Clinton (50%) Romney (41%) CLINTON WINS BY 9%
Edwards (55%) Romney (29%) EDWARDS WINS BY 26%
Obama (51%) Romney (36%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

Clinton (46%) Brownback (41%) CLINTON WINS BY 5%
Obama (49%) Brownback (34%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

Clinton (50%) Gingrich (43%) CLINTON WINS BY 7%
Obama (48%) Gingrich (38%) OBAMA WINS BY 10%

Clinton (48%) Hagel (40%) CLINTON WINS BY 8%
Obama (50%) Hagel (34%) OBAMA WINS BY 16%

Clinton (43%) Thompson (44%) CLINTON LOSES BY 1%
Edwards (50%) Thompson (36%) EDWARDS WINS BY 14%
Obama (49%) Thompson (37%) OBAMA WINS BY 12%

[Tejanocrat]

5. I like the sound of "Edwards (55%) Romney (29%) EDWARDS WINS BY 26%" -- 26% is a royal ass whipping!

[RaleighNCDUer]

6. Yep. those are the numbers that matter.

The supposedly most favored in the primary is not necessarily the strongest in the general election.

[Parisle]

15. You'd think that would be fairly self-evident, huh?

--- "The supposedly most favored in the primary is not necessarily the strongest in the general election." My two greatest fears: Democrats forgetting that they aren't the only ones in the room,.... and a "party machine" so effective that it can override the will of its own constituent members.

--- Here's another thing that worries me. If you look at the top twenty corporate contributors on Hillary's list, it seems like they're contributors you would normally associate with republicans. They'd probably prefer a republican, too,.. but if they have to get stuck with a democrat, then Hillary is the one they would be most comfortable with.

--- Edwards isn't quite my first choice,.. but as long as a couple others are staying out of the running, then Edwards is our best all-around candidate in the general election.

[Tellurian]

21. Who cares- If you don't win the Primary, the General is a forlorn option.

[Clark2008]

23. No - they don't matter.

They're not state-by-state poling, which is how we elect a president.

National polls can be mis-weighted. For example, you might have more people responding in blue states than red or purple. That can show an increase for a Dem candidate.

We elect president state-by-state.

I want to see the Dem v. Rep in each state-by-state poll.

[Tellurian]

8. Where are the links to your polls?

[Tellurian]

12. Clinton 36% Obama 24% .... Whoa.. 12 pt lead..

[skipos]

17. Links here:

http://rasmussenreports.com/
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

[Tellurian]

25. 4/9/07 Primary: Clinton 39% Obama 24% Edwards 21%

from 3/26/07

Clinton up 3pts

Obama down 4pts

Edwards up 3pts.

Clinton leads Obama by 15% as of 4/9/07

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

[skipos]

27. Clinton primary stength and general election weakness should be a worry

for anyone who supports her. Unless they think Dukakis 88 was a rip roaring success.

[SaveElmer]

28. Dukakis was 20 points up on Bush...

At the beginning of the general election campaign...

[skipos]

30. And Lieberman was our 2004 primary frontrunner.

Yet you and all the Hillary-should-be-our-nominee-at-any-cost people post primary polls that indicate she is the leader all the time. What's your point?

This is my point: right now, the polls indicate that Hillary is the primary frontrunner, yet the weakest general election candidate of the top tier of Dems.

[SaveElmer]

31. My point...

Is that she is ahead in these polls...and as supporters it is a trend we like to see...

Nothing more...

[Tellurian]

34. Hillary has to win the Primarys First..

Then she can deal with the Republicans. Please peruse her offical site:

http://clinton.senate.gov/

and read her accomplishments after reading the debunked myths and lies about Hillary:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3147704

[Tellurian]

36. According to Gallup, Hillary beats Obama...2-1

April 10, 2007

Hillary Clinton Remains Dominant Front-Runner Among Democrats

by Frank Newport

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Sen. Hillary Clinton remains the dominant presidential front-runner among Democrats nationally, with twice the support as her nearest challenger. Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. John Edwards, and former Vice President Al Gore are tightly bunched in second place, with all other candidates in low single digits. If Gore is removed from the ballot and his supporters' second-place choices substituted, Clinton's lead becomes even more dominant, with Obama and Edwards tied far behind.

These data were collected April 2-5, just as reports of Obama's first-quarter fundraising success were made public. The survey results suggest that while Obama may have had a great deal of financial momentum in the past quarter, it was not matched by any increase in voter support.

Basic Results

The basic trends over five Gallup Polls conducted among Democrats nationally this year are as follows:



interesting overview:

The trend for Obama has been relatively static. The Illinois senator ends up in this latest April poll essentially where he was last January; Obama gets exactly half of the vote given to Clinton.

Edwards has held his own during this time. He has averaged 13% across the five polls, and ends up at 15%. Edwards had one slightly weaker showing in early March, but in the next poll, taken shortly after his announcement that he would continue his campaign despite his wife Elizabeth's recurrence of cancer, his standing recovered.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27163

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. Clinton (46%) Brownback (41%)

Only againt HRC could a little-known ultra-conservative Kansas senator automatically be within 5 points of the Democratic candidate...if his name ID increased even Brownback could beat HRC. Giuliani vs. HRC? Forget it about. She would but crushed by Giuliani.

[JohnLocke]

32. Great post.

[KingFlorez]

33. That poll seems a bit off

Brownback doesn't have the name ID of Hillary Clinton and certainly not any broad support at this early stage. There is no way Brownback could win.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

37. There is so much anti-HRC sentiment that anyone can automatically pull 40-41% her

Brownback is a perfect example. "John Smith" could probably also reach 40% against HRC. In contrast, Edwards has Romney at 29%!

[Clark2008]

22. Why do you keep posting this?

National polls don't mean bupkus (same for the poll in the OP).

Edwards will NOT beat a Thompson or a Guiliani in the states we need to flip (but neither will Obama or Hillary). The fact that NONE of our front-runners can do this concerns me.

It should concern everyone.

[skipos]

29. Yes, Clark2008 is a much better indication of who will win than polls.

Thanks for your well researched insight. :eyes:

If you think that poll after poll showing Hillary underperforming Edwards and Obama means nothing, her weak favorable/unfavorables mean nithing, that the high numbers of people committed to voting against her mean nothing, that is your right.

I'll post whatever I want.

[elizm]

26. It does make you wonder...

Hillary's standings in the general election have always been the concerns of many of us who want to WIN the White House in 2008. I don't understand why so many people just ignore that.

[Tejanocrat]

4. The national numbers are wholly irrelevant, but the Iowa and New Hampshire are marginally relevant

as a snap shot of how effectively the campaigns are getting out their messages to their target audiences at this moment in time:

Iowa

34% - Clinton
33% - Edwards
16% - Obama
02% - Clark
02% - Biden
01% - Kucinich
01% - Dodd
01% - Richardson

New Hampshire

37% - Clinton
23% - Obama
20% - Edwards
02% - Biden
02% - Richardson
01% - Clark
01% - Dodd
01% - Kucinich

The Repu numbers are even more interesting in that, despite all the obituaries for McCain's candidacy, he's tied for the lead in Iowa and leading in New Hampshire:

IA%/NH%
29%/23% - McCain
29%/19% - Giuliani
10%/17% - Romney
12%/10% - F Thompson
07%/11% - Gingrich

[Clark2008]

24. Better - but still doesn't show the Rep. v. Dem matchups.

[BeyondGeography]

10. Another way to look at it is Edwards has been running since 2003

and it looks like he's stuck in 3rd place behind a guy who has been running for two months.

Which I don't believe, by the way, as these polls are meaningless. Just trying to balance out your thread title.

[renie408]

19. Wait...who is that in your avatar?? Ohhh..That explains it....n/t

[thoughtcrime1984]

11. well golly gee whiz Elmer and Tellurian, thanks

for the daily "Obama has no chance poll alert". We shall see when it really matters.

[Tellurian]

13. You're entirely welcome!

[wakemeupwhenitsover]

14. We have over a year to the primaries.

None of this matters now.

[Timmy5835]

18. Why are you even paying attention to polls at this point??????

The campaign has not even started yet.

[wyldwolf]

38. the campaign has started.

[AtomicKitten]

20. this is indeed a horse race

and it is the best thing to happen to the party in a loooooooooooong time

[Cameron27]

35. It's a horserace alright,

and I guess, hold your bets until after :gasp: super-duper Tuesday.

Clinton's gearing up for it, Edwards isn't, and Obama's monitoring the situation.

SDTuesday

Who knows?