The Hill: Obama Closes the Gap in National Polls

[flpoljunkie]

Obama closes the gap in national polls
By Aaron Blake and Sam Youngman

April 20, 2007

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has harnessed a wave of positive fundraising press and parlayed it into a small but consistent surge in nationwide polls, creating what is looking more and more like a dual-frontrunner race for the Democratic nomination for president.

At the same time, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) and former Sen. John Edwards’s (D-N.C.) campaigns make the case that national polls aren’t nearly as significant as state polls, since the contest is decided on a state-by-state basis.

Obama trails Clinton by two, four, and five points in the most recent Rasmussen, CNN and USA Today/Gallup polls, respectively, after consistently trailing by double-digit margins through March.

He also trails by seven points in the most recent Time magazine poll, conducted two weeks ago.

A number of polls continue to show the race in double digits. But the new, closer national polls are unprecedented in the months-old Democratic battle.

The three closest polls, all conducted in the last 10 days, come after Obama’s fundraising totals for the first quarter unexpectedly rivaled Clinton’s. Obama actually tapped many more donors than Clinton and, over the last week, it was revealed that he raised more for the primary campaign.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/obama-closes-the-gap-in-national-polls-2007-04-19.html

more...

[SaveElmer]

1. Except for the ones he hasn't

ABCNEWS, Fox/Dynamics...

[wyldwolf]

2. I think the more interesting phenom to discuss is...

...the fact that when Clinton's numbers were much higher than Obama's in national polls, people said those don't matter. Only the state polls matter. With Obama's numbers rising in national polls, these polls suddenly have more credibility than the state polls - which Clinton still leads in.

[rinsd]

10. This trend was predictable.

The media (with the acquiescence of the campaign) made Hillary into this unstoppable juggernaut where she wouldn't just win but destroy all comers. So she shatters fundraising records but Obama is right with her and all of a sudden its a campaign in trouble(shit someone is GDP is calling for her to quit!).

Now Obama has put together a great team. They have run an excellent campaign thus far in terms of knowing that all they have to do is gain some ground on Clinton. With bar set impossiby high for her all her has to do is keep pace and the press will create the momentum to carry them as it appears to be doing now.

I am glad that the Clinton team has decided to make a big fundrasing push again. Becausse the next checkpoint is 2nd Q fundraising.

[flpoljunkie]

3. There is a definite trend in the latest polls. Obama appears to be closing the gap.

[SaveElmer]

4. Except in the ones where he hasn't...

And he has certainly made little headway in state polls...

Which are the ones that matter right? At least that's what everyone says when Hillary is shown in the lead...

[Tellurian]

7. I don't believe that dynamic will be for very long..

The Chicago Tribune posted a video series of Obama's appearances during the recess week. In one video, Obama is in front of a small cafeteria size group where he is speaking on Health Care. He is hearing anecdotal storys from the audience and responding to them making mental notations of their wants and needs and fixing a system that is broken etc. His summation was absolutely disheartening. He said unequivocally, he will not be able to propose a Health Care Plan during his presidential campaign but will outline a set of principles he believes will be advantageous at some future date.

At that point, two thoughts ran through my mind. Complete and utter disappointment that this man wouldn't scramble and put a team in place to do nothing but research, peruse other plans and come up with something to grab onto. Some semblance of understanding for the public who are desperate to hear more than the "principles" they have been aware of for the last 15 yrs. Obama did say, the drug and insurance companys are the salient points that need addressing with their help, but he was unsure how that was going to be accomplished.

Dismay was evident on the elderly faces sitting in the audience clutching his book, 'The Audacity of Hope'. The look of irony blanketing their faces, saying; 'how much time do we have left, waiting and "hoping" for decent affordable Health Care before it won't matter anymore?'

I didn't feel any confidence or gain any reassurance Obama, if elected, wouldn't be overwhelmed by the magnitude of the problems facing this presidency. All this said, discounting the distractions of the neverending attacks from the Right Wing Junta and faux news media fomenting, just waiting in the wings to have a crack at the babe in the woods.

It scared me... and I don't scare easily!

[nolabels]

11. HRC should have had the same statement back in the early 90's

Even though HRC was trying to throw the general public out to the insurance wolves she still got Bills ass handed to her in the 1994 elections when the Dems lost control of congress. Yea, lets talk about health care :crazy:

[Tellurian]

12. Live and Learn.. eh

If anyone is aware of the ins and outs of a new Heath Care Program after what past history has revealed to her, it's HRC. She isn't a fresh face taking a bite at the apple for the first time and hoping to sell the public a bill of goods as principle. She knows what she has to do to accomplish the means of getting her Health Care Package together. That alone is light years ahead of her closest competitor.

Hillary continues to eschew confidence in her audiences whenever she speaks. The reason for that is simple. She's already tucked 7 yrs of experience under her belt as a US Senator, piecing together bits of Health Care initiatives into legislation, in addition to the 8 years of experience she's had in the White House. Compared to other candidates in the field, to me, she's looking rock solid.

[nolabels]

13. Time on the job is no substitute for leadership

And experience can only take you so far. I am just glad that republicans have soiled their reputation so bad that even if they could come up with a real candidate the chances would still be a long shot.

Offering more of the same is just more of the same. Tens of thousands of words cannot change a lie and a lack of humility is the least desirable thing i have seen. Between the choice of the three that reasoning makes her the last choice for me

[flpoljunkie]

16. Oh, I wouldn't get too "scared" just yet, Tellurian. It's still very early in the process.

[Tellurian]

19. The thing is, I know people..

and for this particular job, no matter the intelligence, you just can't cram a lifetime of learning the history of politics in a scant 18 month period when you're busy on the campaign trail.

That said, I'm aware Obama is an attorney, which is the mentality needed to lead this country. What I have factored into my assessment not mentioned in my previous post.. Obama has never tried/defended a case or been an asst. prosecutor to an AG.
Obama's expertise has been limited to research and writing legal briefs for the law offices where he was employed. I want a bull-dog who knows where we need to go and how to get us there all in one piece.

afaic, So far, Obama's keynote speech was the highlight of his career. We know he has potential. The question is, is there anymore substance to the man to convince us he's worthy of our trust to parley that into a Win? So far, I'm not seeing or hearing it and as time goes on, more will be expected of him. As they say, time tells all.

I'm set with my choice. And have been since 1999.

[flpoljunkie]

21. Obama has plenty of political experience. Hillary's "experience" did not serve her well with IWR.

[Tellurian]

22. Really? Can you expand on that?

[flpoljunkie]

23. Read it for yourself, Tellurian.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama

[Tellurian]

24. Hey, I do my homework...nothing impressive there!

[flpoljunkie]

25. What can I say to someone who is so in the tank for Hillary they cannot see she cannot win?

Answer: Nada! Zip! Nothing!

[Tellurian]

26. She's never Lost...you'll just have to live with that factoid!

[draft_mario_cuomo]

18. Can you provide a link to HRC's plan for universal health care?

[Tellurian]

20. as soon as it's ready, I'll post you a link..

hows that-

for now, you can read what initiatives in Health Care, Sen. Clinton has created and made available through legislation, at the link below:

http://clinton.senate.gov/issues/health/

If you get lost, link back to "Issues" then look under "H"..

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. Faux News!

:rofl:

[Dawgs]

5. Thank God.

I'm still shocked that so many still support Hillary.

[skipos]

6. I'd probably prefer Edwards, but Obama would be good too.

I'm still hoping for Richardson too spike up too.

Anything that casts some doubt on Hillary's nomination is fine by me.

[illinoisprogressive]

8. I do feel Obama and maybe even Edwards will overtake Hillary in summer

[Colobo]

15. They both will in the next few months.

[Clarkie1]

30. Edwards will never break out of a distant 3rd place, imo.

Especially after the haircut story. The average Joe just doesn't relate to a person who spends money that way, and it's going to cost him votes.

Obama is another story...as long as he doesn't get any $400 haircuts or make some other sort of stupid move.

[rinsd]

9. Provided neither has a gaffe this should remain constant until 2nd Q is over

Then the new fundraising numbers come out.

Until then I see Obama and Hillary coming within the margin of error of most polls trading the sparse lead based on who has been in the news more.

[Colobo]

14. Good for Obama, and good for the Nation.

[mnhtnbb]

27. Edwards STILL the only Dem who beats all Repubs

in latest Rasmussen matchups.

Obama trails Giuliani by 1%
Clinton loses to Giuliani by 1%
Edwards beats Giuliani by 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Favorables/Favorables.htm

[Celeborn Skywalker]

28. That's good.

I really like Obama, though I'll vote for any Dem who gets the nomination.

[Clarkie1]

29. Good news. We must not nominate a war-enabler.

I suspect Richarson will be gaining momentum by late summer as well. Senator Clinton has nowhere to go but downhill...which is clearly the trend.

[MasonJar]

31. I am happy that we have such outstanding candidates. Ours outshine the

GOPers in every way. We MUST support our nominee; the pugs are too crooked and too dangerous. I will work for whomever you all choose. The entire Pug political organization appears to be nothing but blood-sucking crooks. We now have Gonzo, who, allegedly and perhaps truly, knows nothing; we have Wolfie at the World Bank, who is an upfront loser/liar. We have the axis of evil led by Cheney and Bush. Need I say more? If so, I surely can.