Hypothetical vote in Ohio vs. Giuliani: Edwards up by 8 (Obama down by 10, Hillary up by 3)

[JohnLocke]

Edwards, Hillary Could Carry Ohio in 2008
Angus Reid Global Monitor
Thursday, May 11, 2007
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Many voters in Ohio would back John Edwards in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by WCPO-TV. 50 per cent of respondents in the Buckeye State would vote for the former North Carolina senator, while 42 per cent would support former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani—a Republican—holds an 11-point lead over Illinois senator Barack Obama, but trails New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by three points.

In 2004, Republican George W. Bush carried Ohio’s 20 electoral votes, with 51 per cent of the vote. The Buckeye State has supported the eventual president in every U.S. election since 1964.

A few questions now about the next election. If there were an election for president of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were (the following) who would you vote for?

Rudy Giuliani (R) 45% - 48% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 42% - 50% John Edwards (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 51% - 40% Barack Obama (D)

Source: SurveyUSA/WCPO-TV
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 529, 526 and 524 registered Ohio voters, conducted from Apr. 13 to Apr. 15, 2007. Margins of error are 4.3 and 4.4 per cent.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15701

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. I know it's very early in the primary season, but....

one thing is pretty clear from all the post debate polls, Obama didn't do very well when he veered from his routine prepared speeches. Hopefully, he can get his mo back for the next debate. What's even more clear is that Senator Clinton managed to make a good impression; and John Edwards held his own, and has been rock steady throughout.

Of course, this is just a momentary snapshot, and polls will fluctuate wildly based on whatever the current events are.

[mrcheerful]

2. Remember Ohio is a very anti black state and the people tend to be a bit backwards of where the

rest of the country is. I'm not saying this out of meaness but from experince, most of my mothers family lives in Ohio. The last time I talked to my cousins around my age, they think that oral sex performed on a female is a gay act,blacks and whites shouldn't live on the same side of town, inter racial marriage is a sin. Some of what my family has said to me over the years can best be summed up in 3 letters...... WTF? Now don't get me wrong, I'm just basing my opinion on what I have seen and heard during my visits to Ohio over the last 50 years and the people I met through my family. I'm sure their are a few progressives in Ohio, just I seem to run into knuckle draggers.

[silverojo]

6. Ohio is in the majority

Most rural states have similar points of view, and there are knuckle draggers everywhere. They're not just racist, they're sexist, which is why I'm pretty sure Edwards will win the primary--he's a white male.

Not that Edwards would be bad--poverty is his pet issue, and one that desperately needs to be addressed if this country is going to get back on its feet again.

[mrcheerful]

8. There lays the real problem, knuckle dragger's don't believe amerika has poor

there are just lazy americans that refuse to work and collect the big welfare dollar while spitting out 16 kids over a 4 year period, don't ask but I have heard that one gods knows how many times. It seems that if an american is poor its because they choose not to work, after all they can get a small business loan and become independent workers. Besides poor people in amerika have such things as cell phones, color TV's, cable, internet and computers, so they really aren't poor, besides being on welfare guarantees them new Cadillacs to drive around in. In other words Reagans lies about the poor continue to be believed to this day and if you could get past all of their talking points you'd come out with the fact that another Reagan lie is behind these beliefs, its blacks and illegal mexicans that are getting all of these benefits. Whats even worse is how many poor white people share that belief, I have heard over and over how blacks get welfare faster then whites or that they get more welfare benefits and how the same rules don't apply to blacks as whites.Its just amazing how the republican party has been able to use peoples fear and hate of others to snow people into cutting their own throats.

[JohnLocke]

3. Kick (nt).

[Awsi Dooger]

4. A Hillary candidacy would tilt based on her ability to win Ohio

I severely doubt she can win Virginia, which is still several points red at the federal level, all things being equal. Of course, adding Mark Warner as VP would change everything, giving us a 3-4 point bump in Virginia.

Florida is less unlikely but Hillary would be the underdog there. Crist is very popular as a moderate Republican governor right now. No doubt he would endorse the GOP nominee and travel with him. I'm not saying that's a trump card factor in itself, but something to think about. The success of a moderate GOP governor in Florida could easily residue to increased popularity for a Guiliani there, particularly in the vital I-4 corridor in the center of the state.

But Ohio wants to vote our way right now. It's difficult for me to handicap how Hillary would play in that state, but I think she would have a big chance. I'd be much more opposed to a Hillary nomination if it looked like she had little chance in Ohio.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. Edwards would win even Virginia and Kentucky

If Edwards is our nominee the question will not be whether we will squeak by barely winning one or two states that are holding us hostage. The question will be how big our electoral victory will be. Edwards can flip red states. We won't need to be on our knees begging for Ohio to vote Democratic in order to win with Edwards at the top of the ticket. He will win the purples states and cut into Republican territory like Virginia and Kentucky. The electoral map will look more like 1996 than 2004 with Edwards as the nominee.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. I basically agree with that

I support Edwards due to the electoral college realities, more margin for error.

But I'm not as confident about Kentucky. That state has 39-40% self-identified conservatives, according to recent polling, which is a huge hurdle for a Democrat. The ones with 35-37% in that category are much easier reeled in than the ones with 40%+.

[Alamom]

11. FWIW, Senator Clinton is doing ok in Ohio & Florida may not be out of our grasp,

if all the votes are counted. Although this is "extremely" early, polls seem to be a big topic this week. We all know they'll change, but keeping an eye on them can become addicting. Especially watching states that may flip our way. :)




http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/ohio-democratic-republican-polls.html

Ohio
Quinnipiac University Poll
Apr. 17-24, 2007

Democratic candidates
4/17-24/07

Hillary Clinton 37
John Edwards 17
Barack Obama 14
Al Gore 11
Dennis Kucinich 3

Other (vol.)1
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1
Unsure 14

Republican candidates

4/17-24/07

Rudy Giuliani 23
John McCain 21
Newt Gingrich 9
Fred Thompson 8
Mitt Romney 6

Other (vol.) 4
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1
Unsure 23



http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/florida-democratic-republican-polls.html


Florida
Quinnipiac University Poll
Apr. 17-24, 2007

Democratic candidates
4/17-24/07

Hillary Clinton 36
Al Gore 15
Barack Obama 13
John Edwards 11
Joe Biden 2
Dennis Kucinich 2
Bill Richardson 2
Wesley Clark - 1

Other (vol.) 3
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 2
Unsure 14



Republican candidates
4/17-24/07

Rudy Giuliani 38
John McCain 15
Mitt Romney 7
Newt Gingrich 6
Fred Thompson 5

[Czolgosz]

5. I find those hard to believe. I'm taking them with a grain of salt.

[JohnLocke]

10. Why? (nt)