After today's debate, what's the most likely scenario in Iowa?

[Colobo]

[ronnykmarshall]

1. Other ....

That fly that was in Dodds hair will carry it's info back the GOP.

[Maat]

2. Kucinich will be in the lead!

Of course, I'm involved in his superb campaign out here in California - so my input is totally impartial.

;-)

[Myrina]

3. I was actually thinking that ...

:)

[L84TEA]

14. you might just be right

I just said on another forum... after watching DK last night... he sold me several of my friends leaning toward
Edwards. That is kind of what brought me here... I wanted to know what others thought of him.

[rucky]

22. Iowans could backlash against this 1st tier/2nd tier bullshit.

and there will be a cinderella story, here. I'm just not sure who'll wear the glass slippers - you don't really know what's happening on the ground (Kerry surprised us all). Hope DK's message is getting through.

[napi21]

4. Here's the result of the poll on ABC aftr the debate.

Who Do You Think Won the Democratic Debate?

Who do you think won the Democratic debate?

Barack Obama...3,842
Hillary Clinton...2,749
Joe Biden2,024
John Edwards...1,671
Dennis Kucinich...1,292
Nobody won. I'm voting Republican...522
Bill Richardson...444
Mike Gravel342
Nobody won. I'm waiting for Al Gore to get in the race...326
Chris Dodd..114
Total Vote: 13,326

[Colobo]

5. Obama was the clear winner.

[New Era]

26. Heres that same poll now

http://abcnews.go.com/politics


Dennis Kucinich - 10,563

Barack Obama - 8,241

Hillary Clinton - 5,270

Joe Biden - 3,251

John Edwards - 3,019

Nobody won. I'm voting Republican. - 1,471

Bill Richardson - 1,042

Nobody won. I'm waiting for Al Gore to get in the race. - 1,038

Mike Gravel - 944

Chris Dodd - 196

Total Vote: 35,035

[valerief]

6. There will still be GM corn growing! nt

[Adelante]

7. I think Obama and Richardson definitely gained

Edwards significant lead in Iowa, considering he's spent six years campaigning there and feeding money into the state and is extremely well known, has pretty much disappeared. But Edwards is a stealth bomber, so where he will end up in Iowa is still open and I don't think a debate performance one way or another will affect his end point in Iowa.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. Obama outspent Edwards by more than 4-to-1 in Iowa last quarter

It is a myth that Edwards has been outspending everyone in Iowa. In fact the situation is quite the opposite. Obama is by far spending more than him and Clinton spent about 60% more. The meme is that the fact that Edwards has a small lead in a Iowa is a sign of weakness. In fact, it is a sign of strength. When someone spends 4.4x more than you and you retain first and increase your lead on him that is a sign of fundamental strength. Iowa is not for sale; Edwards has a solid base of support there that cannot be purchased.

[Adelante]

15. However, I was talking about a period of six years

That's what speaks to Edwards' positioning in Iowa. The fact remains that with all the time and money he's put into that state, his having lost ten or more points of the commanding lead he began with is sign of weakening. He and Clinton slip ahead or behind each other in most polls lately. I think September's DesMoines Register's polling will clarify.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. When did Edwards ever have a commanding lead in Iowa?

The race has remained stable between Edwards and Clinton for most of the year, with Edwards ahead in most polls and running a close 2nd in the others. What did change is that Clinton became more competitive in Iowa after Vilsack dropped out. Prior to that she was 3rd or 4th in the Iowa polls (behind Obama, who was once second in IA and Vilsack). Apparently she received a disproportionate chunk of Vilsack's support, which is not surprising since Vilsack endorsed her.

According to your theory Obama should be crushing Clinton in Iowa since he has spent about three times as much as her and visited Iowa 55% more often. During this period he has declined to a distant 3rd on the verge of falling to 4th while Clinton his risen to be leading or a strong 2nd in Iowa polls. If anyone is showing weakness in Iowa it is Obama, given his heavy spending there, his long running ads there (Edwards has yet to run an ad in Iowa and Clinton just began airing ads last week), and regional advantage. For some odd reason, I never see those who claim Edwards is doing poorly in Iowa because he is not leading by 25 points ever post about Obama's performance in Iowa. ;)

[polichick]

8. They were all impressive this morning...

But I still feel they should all have equal time at this point.

[Irishonly]

9. So Do I

I understand asking the top tier candidates more questions but I would love to see just one debate where they all got equal time.

[maximusveritas]

10. I don't think anything will change.

These debates don't usually have much of an influence at this point. Obama might get a small bump, but I think it'll still be a close race between the 3 of them.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

13. You mean 4 of them. Richardson (4) is closer to Obama (3) than Obama is to Clinton (2)

;)

[L84TEA]

16. UNLESS...someone goes "Dean" so to speak

It is any ones race. One mess up can cause a downhill spiral.

[NoPasaran]

11. I don't think debates have that much effect in Iowa

In a caucus state, I think that organization is paramount. Getting your people to actually show up on a cold night in January and then having them jump through the hoops that result in winning delegates is a rather different proposition than persuading them to drop by the polls sometime on primary day (or vote early or by mail in states where that's allowed.) I doubt that any candidate's performance in a debate months before is likely to really impact the final results in Iowa.

[IA_Seth]

25. Fully agreed.

Organization and committed supporters are the keys to winning a caucus state. Of course, you have to have solid ideas and present them well to actually GAIN these committed supporters.. but you can be the most intelligent guy in the world, if you can't organize you aren't going to win.

Debates (if you can call these that) do well to showcase candidates and VERY brief outlines of their ideas, but to win in Iowa you have to be going gym to gym, VFW to VFW, and door to door... or at least have proxies doing those things. Kerry schooled our field in 04 because his organization was far stronger than most others.

[AtomicKitten]

18. If it's 27, 26 and 26 (Obama-Clinton-Edwards) in Iowa currently --

I doubt the debate will move the polls dramatically.

[Colobo]

19. Let's hope it becomes 30, 26, 23... :)

[AtomicKitten]

21. Obama took care of that pile-on like a deft ninja. (nt)

[trayted]

20. According to no one but ABC

[illinoisprogressive]

23. Obama gained. But, I think Kucinich helped himself today as well.

[L84TEA]

24. changed my lean...

I was always riding the Edwards lean... after watching DK speak the night before the debate...and watching him on the debate... HE is the clear winner. They keep him sequestered because they know he can out them all! lol.

I will be supporting DK not only because he is excellent, but it pisses me off that we are letting the media control and commercialize SOME of the candidates and not others.

[Broke Dad]

27. Latest Iowa Poll

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has an eight-point edge in the Iowa Democratic race over closest rival Hillary Clinton, according to a new poll released by the ONE Campaign to Make Poverty History.

The poll, taken by 509 past Democratic caucus attendees or likely participants, has Edwards at 30 percent, followed by Clinton at 22. Barack Obama is third with 18 percent, Bill Richardson fourth at 13 percent, and Joe Biden fifth at 5 percent. Dennis Kucinich took 1 percent of the vote. Eleven percent remain undecided, with Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel receiving no votes.

The poll was conducted by Peter D. Hart Research Associates on August 2 and 3, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.