This is what puts Kerry over the top

[2004Donkeys]

It's not which non-intern he did not bang or did he bang Jane Fonda, but its going to be oil prices.

Kerry's leading Bush by single digits. And the driving force of this is Bush's approval on the economy. Bush's approval on the economy has actually gone down in the past month by 10 points. This brings out an interesting question though: why was Bush's approval on the economy ever in the majority to begin with?

The answer is simple ... with 8.2% growth, a booming stock market, and oil prices falling, people thought the economy was going to improve and thus gave President Bush the benefit of the doubt.

But now the stock market has stalled and oil prices have started to go back up. Also, OPEC decided to cut oil again just last week. This coupled with the fact that the situation in Iraq will NOT improve by late 2004 (elections won't be held by July and a civil war will erupt) will send oil prices ever higher. This will give John Kerry an even bigger margin in the polls than he has right now.

Bush thought the war in Iraq was going to do two things: increase his popularity and bring down oil prices. He was wrong on both counts.

Kerry get elected by 15-20 points in November.

[theorist]

1. Do you think the falling dollar is related to rising oil prices? n/t

[2004Donkeys]

2. No and here's why

Oil prices would cause the dollar to buy less, but it would also do the same for the euro, the Canadian dollar, the pound, the yen etc.

The reason the dollar is falling fast is because Bush is running a half trillion dollar deficit while most other countries are balancing their budgets.

[not systems]

4. "same for the euro, the Canadian dollar, the pound, the yen etc."

Say what?

Why would the dollar dropping vs oil and other currencies cause
the other currencies to drop vs oil?

I don't follow you logic.

I see Bush running huge deficit leading to dollar droping vs other currencies.

Oil is traded in dollars so oil price rises as dollar falls.

Other currencies now buy more dollars hence more oil unless
oil prices rise as fast as the dollar falls.

[TreasonousBastard]

10. No. But...

Oil is traded in dollars. If, say, the French want to buy oil from Qatar, they have to pay in dollars.

If not for this, the dollar would probably have fallen even further.

Saddam started trading his oil in Euros a few years ago, and made more per barrel purely because Europeans didn't have to change euros to dollars to buy it.

What no one is talking about is that the other oil countries were thinking about doing the same thing. The middle East sells as much or more oil to Europe than they sell to us, and they buy vastly more stuff from Europe, making it reasonable to eliminate one more step in currency trading.

If too much oil is traded in Euros, the "petrodollars" out there are pretty much useless, and the dollar tanks to nothing.

Now, I don't think that's a reason to go to war, but Iraqi oil is now traded in dollars, and no one else is thinking too seriously about changing.

Except the Russians, who are mumbling about selling oil in Euros.

[MurikanDemocrat]

3. I'll settle for 5-10 points. As long as it's a win.

But it sure would be nice to hand him an ass whoopin.

[DieboldMustDie]

5. Some coattails would be nice.

;)

[waldenx]

6. Why waste an easy win on Kerry

anyone can beat Bush, but the voters are too chicken shit to elect someone with ideas.

[aldian159]

7. calling voters "chicken shit"

is hardly the way to get them over to your guy.

[bornskeptic]

12. Because Kerry is by far the most qualified person for the job.

Because we don't need another amateur handling foreign policy.
Because Kerry's long and illustrious record has proven that he is a man of intense determination and integrity.
Because we, the American people, like him better than the other candidates. This is supposed to be a Democracy, remember?
Also because "anyone" can't beat Bush. Dean would have virtually no chance and Edwards would be probably at best even money.

[Old and In the Way]

8. A run-up in oil prices is bad news for this Roilist administration.

Their 25 year pledge has been "elect up and we'll keep your gas cheap". Well now it's turning into, "elect us and we'll steal enough oil to keep it cheap for the time being". With Peak Oil looming, reality is setting in.

Kerry said we need to have a differnet energy policy that addresses real national security: alternative/renewable energy for the future and jobs to reinvent our infrastructure/transportation systems, etc.

We really need to make this case loud and clear this year. A run-up in oil and the bankrupting occupation of Iraq should only help Kerry's ability to make the case for a new American vision that puts these goals and values ahead of the dead-end future that the Bush Republican Party is dragging us to.

[aldian159]

9. what is Peak Oil?

I've heard it mentioned on DU on and off in the past several weeks. What is it?

[TreasonousBastard]

11. The point where...

oil production peaks, and we start getting less and less of it out of the ground.

There are a lot of arguments over this, and no one knows for sure, but the idea is that we have found all of the major oil reserves and have gotten the easy oil out of them. Current fields are often in secondary and tertiary recovery and we're getting less oil out of them and paying more to do it. From now on, there won't be many new oilfields found, and they will be much more difficult to drill.

We may be running out of oil.

[Old and In the Way]

13. Here's a good thread that has more links to the subject

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1095094

Pretty much what the Treasonousbastard said (not Bush ;-)). Peak Oil is the point where demand outstrips supply...the point where there's no more elasticity games in pricing. Projections seem to put this point around 2020, but it could be substantially sooner if consumption increases higher than the projected rate...and SE Asia's demands are most definitely increasing at a rate not anticipated 10 years ago.

The subject seems to have little discussion in the media....I don't know why. And there's lots of misinformation. For instance, the total reserve in Alaskan Wildlife refugee that Republicans are so eager to tap amounts to only a few months worth of present consumption.