Doublechecking Edwards' math (on Obama's withdrawal plan)

[Adelante]

This is the Washington Times and we know they are not our friends. And frankly I don't understand about brigade sizes and numbers make me dizzy anyway. But do you think this looks about right? Or not?

In today's story on Democratic Sen. Barack Obama's plan to pull troops out of Iraq, former Sen. John Edwards said that Obama's proposal is similar to President Bush's, saying the pace of withdrawal moves too slowly and sounds too much like the Army General David H. Petreaus' plan to withdraw 30,000 troops by July.

"Taking credit for this gradual withdrawal is like taking credit for gravity," Mr. Edwards said. "These 30,000 troops would have to be withdrawn anyway, unless the president extended tours to an unconscionable 18 months."

But that's not exactly accurate.

The Pentagon says there are currently 20 combat brigades in Iraq -- each with 3,500 or 4,500 troops. Mr. Obama plans to get the troops out at a rate of 1 to 2 brigades each month, preferably two, over the next 15 months, starting today and ending in December 2008.

At the lower end, 3,500 troops leaving each month for the next 15 months is 52,500 troops -- about a third of the 160,000 troops currently in Iraq. At two brigades a month it's 105,000 by December 2008, plus the 30,000 Mr. Edwards said are coming home anyway.

Granted, Mr. Obama's plan will not get all of the troops out by the end of 2008 (or 20 days before he would take office if elected). But it is a lot more than the 30,000 Mr. Edwards is claiming.

-- Brian DeBose, national political reporter, The Washington Times

http://video1.washingtontimes.com/debose/2007/09/doublechecking_edwards_math.html

[Cameron27]

1. I got the same numbers they did.

I think Edwards should explain what math he used to attack Obama's plan.

[Adelante]

6. So counting the 30,000 surge troops

It's between 85,000 and 135,000 or so? Is that right?

[Cameron27]

7. Yes, using their numbers for brigades.

[Adelante]

10. So Edwards conflated Obama's plan with Bush's plan

by misrepresenting Obama's plan's numbers.

[Cameron27]

12. Far be it for me to criticize John Edwards,

:P but yes, it appears that he did in fact, misrepresent Obama's numbers so that they appear to be closer to Bush's plan than they actually are.

[Adelante]

13. A piece of shit Edwards play

Nothing new here .. move along now

:P

[Cameron27]

16. If Obama's smart, he'll call him out on Larry King tonight.

Unless I'm missing something, yeah it's a shitty move.

[AtomicKitten]

17. I HATE mis/disinformation.

It's insidious and really below the belt.

I too hope Obama punches back.

[Cameron27]

18. AK, he has to start hitting Edwards back hard on these things

or he may not survive. I'm looking at their numbers, and he's got some work to do.

[madrchsod]

2. combat brigades=1500 to 4,200 soldiers

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/bua.htm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/bct-infantry.htm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/bct-heavy.htm

[killbotfactory]

3. Wouldn't that allow support troops to leave with them?

Or have they accounted for that already?

[Cameron27]

5. Where did you get those numbers?

This is all I can find:

"The Army normally deployed forces in 2,500 to 4,200-soldier Brigade Combat Teams."

[madrchsod]

11. got the low number from wiki which is wrong

i did`t catch that error. the army has been reorganized in the last few years so the low figure does`t apply anymore

[AtomicKitten]

4. The NYTimes touts Obama's plan as the most comprehensive.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/13/us/politics/13obama.html?em&ex=1189828800&en=a56941ca04f2f2cf&ei=5087%0A

* snip *
“The best way to protect our security and to pressure Iraq’s leaders to resolve their civil war is to immediately begin to remove our combat troops,” Mr. Obama said. “Not in six months or one year — now.”

In his address, Mr. Obama proposed removing American combat troops at a pace of one or two brigades a month, which is about twice as fast as American commanders in Iraq have deemed prudent. There are currently about 20 combat brigades in Iraq, which General Petraeus has committed to reducing to 15 next summer.

Under the Obama plan, no more than 10 brigades would be in Iraq at that point. Military experts who supported the administration’s “surge” strategy called the troop levels proposed by Mr. Obama insufficient.

“That is a precipitous withdrawal,” said Jack Keane, the former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army and an early proponent of the administration’s strategy. “What it does is squander all the gains we made in the past five to six months. What it would do is turn Baghdad over to the extremists.”

Polls suggest that there is considerable public support for the approach outlined by Mr. Obama. In the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, 56 percent of Americans said they favored reducing troops levels in Iraq, but leaving some forces in place to train Iraqi forces, fight terrorists and protect American diplomats.

[zulchzulu]

8. That's a great article

I read it this morning. Good stuff.

[Cameron27]

9. Sometimes they come up with a decent column,

not often, but sometimes.

[Cameron27]

14. oops, sorry, I thought you were talking about the Wash.Times

[Donald Ian Rankin]

15. The ambiguity is July vs December.

At lowest, Obama's plan would have 52,500 troops out by December - in 15 months' time.

But Bush is promising to bring out 30,000 troops by July - in 10 months' time. By that time, the least Obama's plan could entail is 35,000 - barely more than Bush.

On the other hand, at two brigades a month, a best-case Obama scenario could see all, or nearly all, the troops home by then.

[FrenchieCat]

19. You are correct.....and so I guess that Edwards opt for the lower numbers possible......

in order to criticize Obama.....

I also just did the math. A brigade has 3,500 to 4,500 troups each. Obama said preferrably 2 brigades per month. So at the most, Obama's numbers are 135,000 troops home by December 2008....

and using the middle average, that's 93,750 or 72% of the total troups currently deployed home by December '08.

[Adelante]

20. I should have asked you!

Number-head :)

[FrenchieCat]

21. Well you did fine on your own.........

believe you me, it wasn't difficult to figure out, if Edwards wanted to have done so.

[CarolNYC]

22. So....

was Edwards just out and out lying here, did he misunderstand Obama's plan, does he not know how to add or multiply, is he just purposely being misleading, or what? :shrug:

I agree that Obama needs to respond to this crap.

[Adelante]

23. Deceptive, by any measure nt

[slipslidingaway]

24. Thanks K&R n/t

[BootinUp]

25. Edwards made shit up?

say it ain't so.

[Colobo]

26. LOL!