If Obama is counting on the youth vote in Iowa...he may need to look elsewhere...

[SaveElmer]

Rasmussen: Hillary Trouncing Obama Among Iowa Youth

Rasmussen Reports has produced new polling numbers on the Iowa Caucus, including the first results of what young Iowans think of the Democratic field. A look at the cross tabs reveal that Hillary Clinton has a shockingly large lead over Obama among young Iowans. 40% of 18-29 year old respondents expressed support for Senator Clinton in the upcoming caucus, compared to 23% for Senator Obama , and 15% for Senator Edwards.

There are some caveats here. 18-29 year olds only comprised 8% of the overall sample - a low number to be sure, but not necessarily so low that the results can be disregarded. There are also factors that make Iowa polling difficult:

Polling for caucus participants is challenging for a variety of reasons including the fact that such a small percentage of the voting age population actually participates. Also, with such small numbers of actual participants, campaign organization techniques can have a significant impact on the actual turnout. Weather and other factors can also influence the final participation and outcome.

Rasmussen is also quick to note that much of the candidate's support is still fluid at this point in the race. That said, this is yet another piece in a growing body of evidence that Obama does not have a lock on the youth vote, despite the prevailing media narrative to the contrary.

If he is counting on them, he better get them out in droves, and hope they don't track as those polled do...


http://futuremajority.com/node/748

[babylonsister]

1. Now you've progressed to dissing someone you don't like? Stick

with Hil, please.

[William769]

3. So what's your excuse?

[rodeodance]

8. now that pic depicts enthusiatic supporters

[babylonsister]

20. What excuse? Please answer, because I throw all kinds of artilcles

out there. I don't like your choice, but I also post other stuff, too.

[SaveElmer]

4. If you can't handle like...the news...

You may want to go elsewhere...

[Colobo]

7. You should be watching Obama on Leno now.

[SaveElmer]

9. At work...unfortunately...nt

[Colobo]

12. You work at night?

[SaveElmer]

13. All day...all night...

I own my own business...I'm here about 16 hours a day...

[Colobo]

15. Cool! I will sound like a Republican right now, but

Thanks for working hard- You're making your part for the well being of our country by doing so.

[SaveElmer]

18. Oh I beg to differ...

Hard work is definitely a Democratic virtue...

Thanks though...appreciate it...

I could definitely use about a week in Key West though!!!!!

[Colobo]

21. Try Puerto Rico instead.

I recommend it. :)

[durrrty libby]

10. He said he likes being the underdog. That is the easy spot

It is much tougher to be the frontrunner


Edit to add Some new comic got a lot more applause than Obama and he really stinks

[Rhythm and Blue]

28. Of course he says that. No candidate would ever say,

"Man, it's really depressing being so far behind my opponents. Some days I just wake up and don't want to get out of bed. I know I don't have a chance, and anyone who supports me is just deluding themselves, but I guess I just keep doing it because it would be embarrassing to pull out now, and I guess I might get the VP slot. Besides, I'm still building my brand, which is pretty good. If I can win Iowa, that'll set me up well for '12 if Hillary loses, so I guess that's something. Still, I mean...it's just really disheartening going out there and knowing I'm totally going to lose."

I mean, that would be absolutely atrocious. No candidate will go out there and say they hate where they are in the race.

[rufus dog]

29. are you a bit upset with the Sox collapse?

maybe a foreshadowing of things to come!

[babylonsister]

16. I have two choice words for you that start with F and end with u.

You are memorable.

[SaveElmer]

19. I would expect no different from you...nt

[durrrty libby]

14. Hypocrisy can be so funny

[Rhythm and Blue]

24. I don't think we should get to the point where

we can't even discuss pre-election polling. This is rather shocking news to me personally, and it adds to the sadly growing cloud over Obama's prospects in Iowa.

It's still a primary race, and those can be swapped 180 degrees overnight. Clinton hasn't locked anything up yet...but I'll be damned if it isn't starting to look that way.

[Colobo]

2. Focus on Hillary, we will take care of our guy.

[SaveElmer]

5. Sorry abourt the bad news...but you know...

I didn't make it up!!!

[Colobo]

6. I don't think it's bad news. Obama has a very good shot in Iowa.

Don't you agree?

[SaveElmer]

11. Better than Edwards...

But if these numbers pan out...given that 60% of Iowa caucus voters are 55 and older, and far more women attend than men...I like Hillary's chances even better...

[durrrty libby]

17. Me too

[Rhythm and Blue]

22. This is a crushing blow to Obama's camp.

It sounds like Obama had been basing a lot of hope on mobilizing the 'hidden youth' demographic. It seems he's got a lot of work left to do--and fortunately for him, the youth vote is notoriously fluid (or fickle, depending on who you ask), so he might yet be able to eke out a victory.

It isn't a death sentence by any means, but this is the worst news I've read for a particular candidate all week.

[babylonsister]

25. Crushing blow? I think not! As you said, it's fluid. nt

[Rhythm and Blue]

27. Emotionally, I'd think.

Not physically, certainly. He still has plenty of time to recover, but this was supposed to be his hidden advantage in the polls. With the loss of his fundraising edge, the loss of his "pure" aura negative campaigning brought, and the apparent nonexistence of a youth-support edge, he doesn't really have any advantages left over Clinton.

He didn't have much wind in his sails as it was. His camp is starved for good news. This was not what they needed to see.

[rufus dog]

30. and how was this sample taken?

Phone calls, so you would have youth living at home with Mom and Dad answering the phone and supporting HRC. What about the youth out on there own with a cell phone?

Go Indians, or Rockies. A month ago it was a lock for the Sox, maybe the Yankees or Angels.

[Rhythm and Blue]

31. They account for that, actually.

I mean, first, they ask the person actually answering the phone demographic information. Are you suggesting that parents are pretending to be their children to fuck with pollster's heads? Or are you suggesting that children are saying "HRC" instead of "Obama" because they're afraid their parents will find out about their dark secret? I mean, where are you going with this?

They recognize the fact that certain groups are difficult to reach. They account for this by looking at the demographic makeup of those groups, and comparing them with the polling result for demographics they can. Say they can't get cell-phone-only 18-25-year-olds living alone. But they *can* get land-line having 18-25-yos, and so they extrapolate, since possession of a land line does not in and of itself have any bearing on voting tendencies.

(Statistically, no baseball team ever has more than a 25% chance of winning the World Series once they enter the playoffs. Few have lower than a 10%. For a baseball metaphor, I'd say that Hillary's up 3-1 in a 7-game series. Obama can still win it, but I'd feel a lot happier if I had put my money on Clinton.)

[incapsulated]

23. Why does anyone "count" on that vote?

They are the least likely to even show up at the polls.

[durrrty libby]

26. Yup, they got keggers to attend