Top Ten Senate seats most likely to switch party: Only one currently held by a Democrat

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, The Fix, by Chris Cillizza
The Line: 2008 Gets a Bit Tougher for Senate Republicans

The somewhat surprising retirement announcement made by Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) earlier this week took an already difficult political cycle for Republicans and turned it into something closer to a nightmare....

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As always, the No. 1 ranked race is the most likely to switch party control next November....

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4. New Mexico (Currently R): With so much uncertainty about Democratic field, it's hard to justify putting the newest open seat of the cycle any higher on The Line than this. Yes, Republicans are certain to face a divisive primary between Reps. (Heather) Wilson and (Steve) Pearce. And yes, the state appears to have moved in Democrats' direction over the past few elections. But the fact that national Democrats have continued to urge (Lt. Gov. Diane) Denish to run despite (Albuquerque Mayor Martin) Chavez's candidacy gives us some pause. Do Democrats believe that Chavez cannot beat Wilson or Pearce? If so, why not? We've been assured that the Democratic field is still very changeable and that the party has a number of irons in the fire. Time will tell. (Previous ranking: N/A)

3. Colorado (Currently R): We thought long and hard about swapping this race and New Mexico. But in the end, the state's recent electoral history -- Democrats have won the governorship, two House seats and a Senate seat over the last two elections -- and Rep. Mark Udall's continued strong fundraising ($3.1 million on hand at the end of September) keeps Colorado in the third slot. Former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) put together a very solid fundraising quarter of his own ($724,000 raised) and should benefit from a recent independent poll that showed the race is a dead heat. Don't forget: There are 135,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in Colorado. Still, Udall has the edge at the moment. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. New Hampshire (Currently R): It's been a quiet few weeks in the New Hampshire Senate race -- to the benefit of incumbent John Sununu (R) after the national attention that former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) generated when she announced her entry into the race. The fundamentals of this race make it very hard for Sununu to win. New Hampshire voters have clearly tired of the Bush administration and the war in Iraq (witness the defeat of the state's two Republican incumbents in 2006), and polling shows Shaheen with a solid and sustained edge. The most recent independent survey showed Shaheen with a 54 percent to 38 percent advantage over Sununu. More troubling than the head-to-head numbers, however, were the favorability ratings for the two candidates; 56 percent felt favorably about Shaheen with just 25 percent unfavorable. Compare that with a far less healthy 40/37 fav/unfav margin for Sununu. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Virginia (Currently R): Let's see. Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) raised more than $1 million in the first 17 days of his candidacy. The Post's own poll put Warner 30 points ahead of both of his potential Republican opponents -- Rep. Tom Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore. Republicans recently opted for a convention rather than a primary, a move likely to favor the more conservative, but less general-election friendly Gilmore. Davis has started sending signals that he may not run for the Senate seat after all. Put simply: It's good to be Mark Warner right now. (Previous ranking: 1)

(NOTE: The remaining races from 5 to 10 are: Louisiana (the one seat on the list currently held by a Democrat), Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, Alaska, and Nebraska.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/10/friday_senate_line_4.html#more

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Change your title. (Democrat, not Republican) :-)

[DeepModem Mom]

4. THANKS TO ALL! BRAIN GLITCH EDITED!

:silly:

[bunkerbuster1]

2. Might fix the subject header if you haven't already

you meant to say "Only one currently held by a Democrat", yes?

Anyway, thanks for the link, reading the piece now.

[Rhythm and Blue]

3. You mean "Only one held by a Democrat," right? nt

[Crabby Appleton]

5. Yes, your subject line seems to have it backwards

[BOSSHOG]

6. I would not count Mary Landrieu out just yet

She's a helluva campaigner. Just ask the uppity skanky bitch holier then thou conservative dipshit who ran against her five years ago.

[...of J.Temperance]

10. Senator Mary Landrieu WILL be re-elected, her brother, the Lt. Governor just got re-elected last

Saturday, Mitch Landrieu got 57% of the vote, 700,000 plus votes he got.

Senator Mary Landrieu will follow her brother's election blueprint and she'll win....who are the GOP going to run against her, that idiot John Kennedy, who up until a few weeks ago was a Democrat....she can take him....she might have a bit more trouble if the GOP run Jay Dardenne against her, but I think Mary can take him as well.

Oh yeah....WHATEVER happened to Suzanne Haik Terrell? She HAD to be one of the stupiest GOP candidates ever.

[wellstone dem]

7. Minnesota will need to come up with better candidates

neither Franken or Ciresi are doing well enough in the polls to make taking this seat anywhere near certain. Given the margin of victory of Amy Klobuchar last year, we can take this seat, but need the right candidate.

Alan Page?
Tarryl Clark?

[hijinx87]

8. I made this point a thread about congressional approval ratings yesterday

I'm not sure that crappy approval ratings will matter. rethugs
in both houses are retiring in droves. it looks like 2008 will
be a very good election for us.

[wiseguy182]

9. insights and analysis

New Hampshire - I suspect the only reason republicans held onto this seat in 2002 was that they jammed up democratic phone lines. The governor of the state, a democrat, has some of the highest approval ratings in the country, near 80%. Additionally, their two house rep seats flipped Dem in 06, and the state broke for Kerry in 04, after going for Bush in 00. The senate race was lost in 04, and wasn't even close, but the candidate was in her 90's. Outlook: heavily leans Dem pickup.

Colorado - Udall appears to fit Colorado better on the whole, as Schaffer will probably be too conservative for the state. Udall will do better with independent voters. Also, Repubilcan house rep Musgrave's seat is constantly in danger, and she only won re-election in 06 with 46% of the vote. The dem got 43, and an independent garnered 11. I don't know if the independent candidate helped us or hurt us. But Musgrave's 46% win is disappointing for her. Outlook: leans Dem pickup.

New Mexico - A very swing state, breaking narrowly for Gore in 2000, and narrowly for Bush in 2004. However, the governor is a popular Democrat, and the other senator is a popular Democrat. And Heather Wilson's narrow, 1,000 vote victory last year will put house district one in play. One of the other two districts is held by a Dem. I feel Patty Madrid could beat her. Domenici is stepping down after taking a beating in his approval ratings, and Heather Wilson is facing some of the same challenges as Domenici would have faced. Outlook: leans Dem pickup.

Oregon: Most of their house reps are dems, they have a dem governor, and their other senator is Dem. Repubican Gordon Smith has to run quite moderate to retain this seat, but has money and experience, and will be tough to knock off. Outlook: tossup

Maine: Collins has high approval ratings, like the other moderate Republican senator Olympia Snowe, but faces a tough challenge in a leaning dem state in a possible Dem year. this could be very close. Outlook: tossup.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman is a flip-flopper and a jerk, winning the seat after faking sympathy for Paul Wellstone, and then turning around a few weeks after winning the seat and saying that he was "99% better than Paul Wellstone." He has also stated he dislikes gays. It remains to be seen what type of candidate Al Franken will turn out to be, but Al hates Norm Coleman, and will no doubt pull out the big ammunition on him. Minnesota is going back to its Dem ways, which could be troubling for Coleman. Some originally predicted the 06 senate seat to flip to Republican Kennedy, but Kloubuchar entered and stomped him. Outlook: tossup

Alaska: I wish I had more hope for this one, but even as much as Ted Stevens sucks, and no matter how great the Dem nominee is, it doesn't appear Alaska will be voting Dem after popular two term governor Tony Knowles has lost two elections, both of which were vulnerable for the republicans. Outlook: Leans republican hold.

[DeepModem Mom]

11. Thanks for your analysis, wiseguy -- and welcome to DU!!!

[wiseguy182]

12. thanks

thanks DeepModem Mom

[wiseguy182]

13. more about the New Mexico seat

From what I've read, it's not that Dems believe Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez can't win, they just think he's a bit too moderate-conservative of a Democrat, and would rather have someone a bit more liberal, say Diane Denish. However, given that Bush carried that state in 04 and the seat is currently in republican hands, our best bet may be a moderate-conservative Dem, particularly if the republican candidate is the conservative Steve Pearce, who quite a few voters feel would be too conservative for the state.

Interestingly, if there's one state that is concerned about the environment, it's New Mexico, as both Bill Richardson and Jeff Bingaman have made it a point to do lots for the enviroment. Meanwhile, Republican Heather Wilson has a horrible environmental record, so if she is the nominee, that should come back to haunt her some.