"history shows that there has never been a Dem candidate w/ a 20 pt or larger lead this late...

[rinsd]

...in the campaign process who did not go on to win the nomination."





I've decided to embrace my critics usually hollow critique that I am pushing inevitablity.

I have attempted to qualify my remarks when posting polls knowing how fluid polls can be because apparently being confident in your candidate's chances is some horrible thing one must avoid.

No more.

I mean why fight the reality that Hillary Clinton will be not only the nominee of the Democratic party for the 2008 election but she will be the 44th President of the United States. Its something I hope for and I am damn confident it will happen.

[Dawgs]

1. Who are you trying to convince, the deniers or yourself?

:shrug:

[rinsd]

5. No, it was more like a realization.

What do Hillary haters hate more than anything?

Showing Hillary winning.

Since Obama & Edwards supporters will be delighting in their candidates' attacks on Hillary in a desperate move to lower her poll numbers, I thought what better way to just drive them crazy then to post how their BS is not working.

[robinlynne]

17. war, big industry taking over our country, and lack of civil rights.

[Nedsdag]

2. So, it's "Mission Accomplished," huh?

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[rinsd]

6. Not quite, that will be lateJan 2009.

[Nedsdag]

11. The way you're talking,

everyone should fold up their tents and go home.

That's democracy in action for you.

[rinsd]

39. No, by all means the other candidates and their supporters should continue campaigning.

I just happen to think they stand little chance against Hillary.

But I love how confidence in my candidate is somehow construed as my being anti-democratic.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Jesus! 16% of Dems would stay home or vote republican if Edwards in the nominee...

And 14% of Dems would stay home or vote republican if Obama is the nominee... that's astonishing.

It's easy to get drawn into the DU alternate reality that droves of Dems will stay home if Hillary is the nominee. Some will, of course, but apparently not as many as will stay home of Obama or Edwards is the nominee.

I don't pretend to understand it, and I can't explain it. But it's noteworthy.

[MethuenProgressive]

13. "noteworthy" indeed.

"It's easy to get drawn into the DU alternate reality..."
Oh, how very true, how very true...

[Dawgs]

20. Exactly why many of us don't trust these polls.

And it has nothing to do with DU. I know more than a few Democrats that are scared to death of Hillary getting the nomination. I don't know any Democrats that wouldn't be fine with Obama or Edwards. As a matter of fact, I know more than a few Republicans that would be okay with Obama.

[MethuenProgressive]

29. Yeah... Gallup is *so* untrustworthy.

I've never met anyone "scared to death of Hillary getting the nomination".
You might need to meet people with more courage than fear.

[durrrty libby]

31. Noteworthy ..Wow Goes to show you how out of touch DU is with reality

Ha more dems would stay home if Obama or Edwards were the nominee than Clinton

Did you see that Haters?? :P

[incapsulated]

38. It is fucking *bizarre* lol

I will out myself that I can't stand Edwards and if he were the nominee I would be sick.

But I would vote for him and would cut off my right arm if it ever pulled the lever for the republican.

And those who say the polls are lying, please, if it showed a high negative for Hillary it would be quoted like it came from God.

[Alamom]

4. Bravo. Thank you for the information. nm

[EFerrari]

7. I hope you're wrong but believe you're right. And, what a great sentence:

"I've decided to embrace my critics usually hollow critique that I am pushing inevitability."

:thumbsup:

[hedgehog]

8. History shows that there has never been a person elected President

who wasn't a white, Christian male!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Jefferson Was Arguably A Deist

eom

[hedgehog]

32. Yeah, but he also wrote that version of the Gospels omitting all the parts he didn't

credit, so he was probably perceived as a Christian by contemporary voters.

[oasis]

9. Hopefully the "base" will come to accept a "glass half full" and get with the program instead

of wasting time in organizing an ill-fated third party movement.

[Dawgs]

21. Or, hopefully the "base" will GET IN LINE behind a supporter of war, lobbyists, and NAFTA.

No thanks.

[oasis]

66. "Either lead, follow...or get the hell out of the way, 'cause the Hillary Express won't stop to

sing lullabies to the malcontents.:nopity:

[ronnykmarshall]

10. Standing back ...

waiting for the winged monkeys to arrive.

[MethuenProgressive]

12. Gallup: 64% will vote for Clinton enthusiastically!

That's pretty amazing.
Also amazing is that Edwards leads in the 'turned off voters' tally with 16% who would rather saty home or vote Republican than vote for him...

[saracat]

14. Then it is going to be a very sad day for our Party and the nation. I did not think anything could

horrify me as much as the SCOTUS decision in 2000.This would be right up there.

[wyldwolf]

16. Then it is going to be a very happy day for our Party and the nation.

[durrrty libby]

27. This will be an extremely exciting day for my Party, our nation,

and the world. I did not think anything would thrill

me as much as the birth of my children. This will be right up there.

[surfermaw]

18. Its not over until the fat lady sings

She will start her song early and then on to Iowa, where John Edwards came in second in the race just 2% points behind the leader Kerry, now what were the polls showing I think, the polls were saying 5% what a laugh.

[yodermon]

19. I predict she will give Bushco a full pardon upon her inauguration. n/t

[Tellurian]

22. Hillary's candidacy is and will be a historical event on many fronts..

I don't want to jinx anything by writing it all down just yet..

[Froward69]

23. sig heil, sig heil !!!

So thats it??? I have yet to find a Hillary supporter, anywhere! so it's over. you will blindly follow someone who wont end the mess in Iraq, start bombing Iran. someone who is supported by the corporate War machine... ok go ahead. Discussion and debate are futile with you. Thats so neo-con!

[SaveElmer]

26. There you have it...the DU delusional archetype on display...

[DemBones DemBones]

30. I don't know any Hillary supporters, either.

Makes you wonder about the polls, doesn't it?

[Froward69]

33. sure does!

and how the right has preordained her as the candidate. we all know they do not want whats best for our country.

[rinsd]

44. But I bet you know plenty of Kucinich supporters.

So how did he do in the last election compared to the percentage of your acquaintances that said they supported him?

Did he equal his voting percentage amongst your friends, exceed it or fall below it?

[William769]

49. All 1% of them!

[rinsd]

53. Hey Willy!

:hi:

[DemBones DemBones]

67. But you say Kucinich has no chance and Hillary has it sewn up.

So why don't I know anybody supporting her, in the real world?

You Hillary supporters are counting your chickens before they're hatched, which is never wise.

If we have a Clinton-Giuliani race, it will be the worst since Humphrey-Nixon. The only thing to do then was write in Eugene McCarthy. The only thing to do in 2008 will be to write in Dennis Kucinich.

[Catherine Vincent]

35. uh, there are plenty of Hillary supporters here on DU.

Calm down.

[rinsd]

41. LOL....oh the irony.

"you will blindly follow someone who wont end the mess in Iraq, start bombing Iran. someone who is supported by the corporate War machine... ok go ahead. Discussion and debate are futile with you. Thats so neo-con!"

Actually you mischaracterizing both myself and my candidate's positions deliberately with emotional triggers is very, very neocon.

[incapsulated]

42. Oooo.

*zing*

[durrrty libby]

24. There is no denying her fantastic numbers.

I watched her talk about health care today on cspan.

Not only was her knowledge of subject matter impressive, but her connection with

the panel and audience was a wonder to witness.


I can not wait to watch her debate any of the repukes

She will decimate them

[Froward69]

34. nor their is no denying faux's endorsement of her either.

or insurance's endorsement. mandatory health insurance is not the way to curb abuses either. actually I believe the right will slice her to pieces then feed her to sharks. chum

[durrrty libby]

69. Completely delusional and awful speller

[maximusveritas]

25. What is you source?

It's not that I don't believe you. I'm just interested in when they actually started doing polls of the primary this early. How extensive is this history?

[rinsd]

40. Gallup...here's a link to the article

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=29050

They have more figures but they were a pain in the ass to post.

[maximusveritas]

46. Thanks. What's interesting is none of the others with a 20+ lead won the Presidency

Perhaps having a closely contested nomination is better for the eventual nominee.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

51. Maybe when it looks like the party can win there are more candidates splitting the vote

[rinsd]

59. Not quite

From the link

"Kennedy and Hart ultimately lost their nomination bids, but their large leads came much earlier in the campaigns. Kennedy's candidacy lost its steam when Jimmy Carter's popularity surged in late 1979 following the Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Hart's 20-point lead occurred in the last poll taken before he suspended his campaign after the press was able to confirm rumors he was having an extramarital affair.

Mondale and Gore, who like Clinton held their large leads much later in the campaign, both went on to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Moreover, Mondale and Gore saw their leads expand between the start of the election year and the Iowa Caucuses. Both then won the Iowa caucuses, though Mondale would subsequently lose the New Hampshire primary to Hart and see his lead disappear. Mondale recovered and had the nomination well in hand by April. Gore won the 2000 New Hampshire primary over Bradley and easily won the nomination."

[maximusveritas]

60. Nothing in your quote contradicts what I said

I'm talking about winning the presidency, not just the nomination.
Unless you count Gore, none of those guys won.

[rinsd]

61. D'oh! I read it wrong....sorry about that.

[durrrty libby]

28. K & R

[cleveramerican]

36. Call the precincts, cancel the primaries.Its been settled.

if its all decided, We should probably save the money wasted on allowing americans to vote.

[durrrty libby]

37. Wow..So original. Did you just make that up? I have never ever

heard that meme before. You are such a clever American:yourock: :applause: :woohoo:

[RebelSansCause]

43. grats to you...

:sarcasm: seriously, that is simply awesome news. i hope you take it all the way to the primaries. no seriously, i do. what? you do not believe me? shame on you. frankly i could care less about the constant posting of poll numbers. i sincerely hope hillary does not win, but the only thing you are doing is further alienating the core LIBERAL base of the party. the DK supporters like myself.

[LittleClarkie]

45. Spiffy. But if the vote was tomorrow I'd probably vote for Obama

anyway.

[rinsd]

52. And there's certainly nothing wrong with that.

:hi:

[William769]

47. I agree with you 100%

The more ugly people get about Hillary on DU, the better she is doing. since it's been a cesspool around here lately with some, I'm all smiles! :)

[IndianaJones]

48. amen. nt.

[ihelpu2see]

50. It is unfortunate that she will lose the general, I know of no

independents around (blue) CT that will vote for her and any moderate republicans they all like
Edwards or Obama over Rudy so..... I will vote for her if she is the democratic nom. but the shine is quickly fading...
Dems will realize that she has the toughest road in the general....
How big was Howard Deans lead at this point???.... Oh yeah it was considered EARLY in 04...

[calteacherguy]

62. LOL.

:rofl:

At this point I just have to laugh at these posts. You know of? Well, it really doesn't matter because she's going to carry the vast majority of independents in this country and a large portion of Republican women, as well as nearly all Democrats.

It's going to be a landslide and you are wrong, wrong, wrong.

[ihelpu2see]

65. just as you laugh at my supposition... I too laugh at yours... I have a business

where I see a good number of local women Independents and republicans.... and where you have what proof of a land slide??? I actually talk to these people and unless they are dems. they are not going to pull the lever for Hillary... what ever there reason they won't..... So, I know my research is anecdotal, but at least I have research. I have not seen a comprehensive poll of independants.... On a personal note I am a registered Dem and my wife a registered Rep. (she is leaning for Obama) and we have not gotten ONE polling call. Last election cycle we got 1 per week or every other week. But again that speaks to my point that it is so early that most of Hillary's pop is name recognition among voters. Do you really think the average Joe on the street watched ANY debates this summer.

Most voters here ( CT 1st Cong.District) do not even realize we have an election in November 6th and that our Primary is in Feb.!!!

enjoy following a candidate blindly :(

[bigdarryl]

54. Didn't Dukakas have a 20 pt lead on G H Bush

[oasis]

68. What's that got to do with winning the party's nomination?

[durrrty libby]

71. The BIg D gets easily confused. He tried to tell us that his

mommy said Hillary is "cold and cocky"

The poor mother always gets blamed:-)

[Lucinda]

55. Hillary is my second choice...and

I'll be very happy if she gets the nom, but it ain't ovah till it's ovah.

I prefer Edwards but I think Hillary is the best equipped to handle the Reps smear machine. Having said that, one mis-step, or one "something extraordinary" can change things in a heartbeat. I'm not putting anyone in the "done-deal" column just yet.

[calteacherguy]

56. Thanks for the historical perspective! K&R. nt

[Greyskye]

57. "this late in the campaign process"

I thought that this years campaign process got started a lot earlier then it ever had before. What metrics are you using?

IMHO, anything can still happen.

[Rhythm and Blue]

70. That actually helps her a good deal.

By starting earlier, more voters are familiar with her and her opponents, and so are less likely to change their votes at this point. That would be one reason the polling is so stable, as opposed to the very dynamic 2004 race.

[rufus dog]

58. Great poll numbers for Hillary, congrats

Will it impact my vote, hell no.

Look Sixty FUCKING million people in this fine country voted for a corrupt moron. The argument that wee need to get behind him never worked for me. It is strange that the OP is trying to do the same. GET BEHIND HER, YOU ARE WRONG IF YOU DON'T.

I wasn't wrong in 2000, 2004, and I sure as hell won't make the wrong choice in 2008. If she wins fine, but stop the bullshit of pushing her because the majority of people polled pick her. Accomplishments are great, post those!

[illinoisprogressive]

63. I wonder if this is done by the same people who counted up all those chinatown checks.

[rufus dog]

64. OUCH! The Times is being a bit of a thorn in her side n/t

[Evergreen Emerald]

72. Dean was way ahead last time and did not win

with the help of the media.