WP,pg1: Some Say Clinton Model Flawed: Strategy for Appeal in Upstate NY May Not Translate for '08

[DeepModem Mom]

Some Say Clinton Model Is Flawed: Strategy for Appeal in Upstate N.Y. May Not Translate for '08 Bid
By Alec MacGillis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 21, 2007; Page A01

....running for president, Clinton is invoking the inroads she has made Upstate as a kind of talisman against worries in her own party that she is too polarizing to win next fall. If she can appeal to Republicans in Cattaraugus and Boonville, her campaign argues, her electability -- and her ability to unite the country -- are undeniable.

But seen from ground level in this swath of rolling farmland and small towns between Buffalo and Rochester, it is unclear whether that argument holds up.

(Doug) Merlau, when asked if he and his neighbors would vote for her for president next fall, responded, "There are more people that like her" now than when she first came to New York, "but you still hear people say, 'I don't know if I want her to be president.' "

In Clinton's seven-year career in elected office, Upstate New York was her biggest political test. When she arrived from Washington in 1999, she was the wife of the president who had barely escaped a scandal that had focused attention on their marriage, and she had no real connections to the state and no experience running herself. Many people Upstate regarded her as a carpetbagger.

Clinton has won over many such critics, but often through federal grants and constituent service, tools she cannot rely on in a presidential campaign. Her reelection last year, when she won 61 percent of the Upstate vote, came against a weak candidate. And the region is by some measures more moderate than parts of key swing states such as Ohio and Florida -- Republicans barely outnumber Democrats (who are clustered in Upstate's cities), and there are few religious conservatives....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/20/AR2007102001204.html?hpid=topnews

[aquart]

1. New York ain't going for Romney or Giuliani.

As for the rest of the country...the faithful Mormon or the divorced Catholic? Sure. Republicans will absolutely get out of bed and rush to the polls. They won't give them donations, but they'll give them their votes? Yeah, that's the ticket.

[Jackpine Radical]

2. Another Fascist Fluoxetine article...

Written by Republicans to give heart to Republicans (Give heart? Bad choice of words--that wouldn't be possible).

[hedda_foil]

3. And she didn't do as well as Schumer ('04) or Spitzer

(2000 election) In the end, Clinton lost the Upstate vote by three percentage points to Rick Lazio, a Long Island congressman who entered the race late (after New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani bowed out), was little known Upstate and ran a flawed campaign. It was a higher total than Democrats had won Upstate in recent statewide elections, reflecting the unusual amount of time she invested in the region, but lower than what Al Gore won Upstate on the presidential ballot. Just before Giuliani dropped out, he led Clinton Upstate 49 percent to 37 percent in polls by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

<snip>
In her reelection last year, Clinton won 58 of the state's 62 counties, including 35 Upstate that were carried by President Bush in 2004. But it was a terrible year overall for New York Republicans -- Democrat Eliot L. Spitzer won the race for governor with 69 percent of the statewide vote, more than Clinton's 67 percent (in 2004, Schumer won reelection with 72 percent). Clinton's opponent was former Yonkers mayor John Spencer, who received much less party support than Lazio had and raised less than $5 million, far short of the nearly $30 million spent by Clinton.

"She had an absolute Humpty Dumpty as opposition," Quinnipiac's Carroll said.

[Nite Owl]

4. This is right

Republicans upstate are more liberal than dems in the South. I think she could win all of NY over Ghouli or anyone other repuke but more conservative areas of the country I don't think so.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Got This From The End

"That, say political scientists and pollsters, is the bottom line of Clinton's Upstate legacy. She has solidified her initial support, won over voters who were willing to give her a chance -- and made little headway with those who disliked her from the outset.

"She's working hard and is probably in a little better shape than she was six or seven years ago," said Syracuse University political scientist Jeff Stonecash. "But there's still something out there that she's got. It's hard to figure out what it is that they dislike so much."


I thought analogizing upstate New York to red and purple America was a bit of a reach when the Clinton campaign made the claim but that's different than saying the analogy has no value at all...All she has to do to win the presidency is win the Dems and split the Indys or not lose them too badly because there are just more Dems than Rethuglicans...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. an odd argument...

"And the region is by some measures more moderate than parts of key swing states such as Ohio and Florida -- Republicans barely outnumber Democrats (who are clustered in Upstate's cities), and there are few religious conservatives."

I can promise that no Dem candidate is planning to win some parts of Ohio and Florida, like the pan handle of Florida or the suburbs of Cinncinatti. I also doubt any Dem candidate, including Clinton, is planning to lose those areas by as little as three points.

And Bush has probably never won Austin, Texas.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. As A Floridian

Central Florida is the battleground... South Florida is blue except for the West Coast... North Florida is red except for Tallahassee* and Gainesville...Central Florida is purple...

*Tallahassee isn't a blue as it used to be with the succession of GOP governors...


And she's doing well in OH, PA, and FL


http://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1109

[PSPS]

8. "Some say"

Geesh, here we go again. Not surprising, though, coming from the WP.